St. Paul, MN (Oct. 16, 2019)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped from 128 to 1116, or 9.4%, for the three-month period ended Sept. 30, 2019, from Q2 2019. The year-over-year (Q3 2018 to Q3 2019) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 120 to 116, or 3.3%.
Yosyf Sheremeta, PhD, Director of Product Management and Customer Experience, analyzes the North American economic outlook by industry segment.
Welcome to the PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont
From Power Systems Research, I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.
Today, we’ll talk with Yosyf Sheremeta about the economic outlook for North America. Yosyf is Director of Product Management and Customer Experience for Power Systems Research.
Editor’s Note: This is an updated report from the Q2 2021 Truck Production Index report produced by Chris Fisher and Jim Downey, Vice President-Global Data Products, in July 2021.
Question: What is the global truck production picture? What is the outlook?
PSR Opinion: Overall, medium and heavy truck demand will finish the year on a strong note, and continued strength is expected into 2022. On-going supply chain disruptions will continue to impact production throughout the rest of the year and likely into 2022.
Question: What kind of global production volume do you expect for this year?
Summary: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat. Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023. The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory.
We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021. China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%.
North America: While supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to finish 2021 15.8% higher than 2020. The forecasted production growth rate is expected to continue to show improvement through 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease and truck capacity in the market begins to align with demand. The disruption in the supply chain and on-going issues with Covid will continue to impact the market this year.
The Southeast Asian auto industry continues to suffer from the effects of the new coronavirus. New car sales in April were down 80% year-on-year due to restrictions on activity in each country. New car sales in the six major countries were down 82% in April from a year earlier to 51,063 units.
The biggest declines were in Malaysia and the Philippines, where sales were down 99.7% and 99.5%. Both countries began restricting activity in March, with production and sales of cars almost completely halted in April. Indonesia, the largest market, was down 91%. Thailand sales slumped 65%, although car dealerships operated under a declared state of emergency.
In this episode of PSR PowerTALK, Christopher Bamforth, European Market Analyst for Power Systems Research, comments on his outlook for the European economy.
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Emiliano Marzoli:
From Power Systems Research, hello, I am Emiliano Marzoli, editor of PSR PowerTALK. And today we’re going to discuss the economic outlook for Europe with Christopher Bamforth, our European Market Analyst.
Maxim Sakov, Market Consultant-Russia for Power Systems Research, discusses his Q1 2021 economic outlook for Russia in this episode of PSR PowerTALK.
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Emiliano Marzoli:
From Power Systems Research, hello everyone. I’m Emiliano Marzoli, editor of PSR PowerTALK, and today I will discuss the economic outlook for Russia with Maxim Sakov, our marketing consultant in Moscow. Maxim provides our clients with economic and production forecasts for Russia each quarter. And thank you for joining us today, Maxim.
SUMMARY: Our PowerTrackerTM dealer and distributor survey of 200 respondents reported that overall gen-set sales declined in Q1 2021 down 7.4% from Q4 2020 levels. This decrease follows three consecutive quarters in 2020 where dealers reported overall sales increases of 4.5% in Q2 2020 followed by 11.9% in Q3 2020 and 6.3% in Q4 2020.
Although sales were down 7.4% in the first quarter, the results were unique in that there was a different story depending on the fuel and power range being considered.
The data comes from the proprietary PowerTrackerTM series of syndicated surveys conducted each quarter by Power Systems Research. A total of 300 interviews are completed each quarter with gen-set dealers and distributors and businesses across North America.
SUMMARY: Our PowerTrackerTM survey of dealers and distributors reported that overall gen-set sales increased in Q3 2021 up 4.3% from Q2 2021 levels. This builds on a sales increase of 6.8% in Q2 2021 and a slower start to the year of -7.4% in Q1 2021 as sales were constrained by availability and supply issues.
This quarter’s results were based on interviews with 110 gen-set dealer and distributor respondents based in North America. The overarching theme in the third quarter was a continuation of sales growth being constrained by the availability and supply of gen-sets. Longer lead times for dealers to receive shipments is limiting their sales – even though demand from end users remains at high levels.
The data comes from the proprietary PowerTrackerTM series of syndicated surveys conducted each quarter by Power Systems Research. Each quarter we interview gen-set dealers and distributors and other businesses across North America to maintain a pulse on the sales channels as well as monitor the ongoing needs and plans for businesses to purchase standby gen-sets to support their business operations.
SUMMARY. As we are halfway through 2023, there is more uncertainty with the economy than earlier in the year. The general consensus is there will be a recession coming soon in the United States, and now it is just a matter of whether this will happen later in 2023 or the first of part of 2024.
The latter may be more assumed recently. The stock market has not fallen, and the US economy has not entered a recession this year, 2023. Some of the factors that have prevented this are market investors being enthusiastic over AI (Artificial Intelligence) potential, the Federal Reserve’s pause in interest rate increases, and the slowdown of inflation. So seemingly the pause button has been hit on recession scenarios.
Monthly news and analysis from PSR’s experts
World Headquarters
St. Paul, MN USA
Detroit Regional Sales
Ann Arbor, MI USA
Campinas, Brazil
