North American Economic Outlook – March 2021

Yosyf Sheremeta, PhD,  Dir. of Prod. Mgt. & Customer Experience, analyzes the North American economic outlook with special emphasis on the Administration’s efforts to control emissions.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Jim Downey:

Good morning and welcome to this podcast by Power Systems Research. Today we’ll be discussing the North American market outlook for.2021. I’m Jim Downey, Vice President of Global Data Products here at Power Systems Research. I’m joined by my colleague, Yosyf Sheremeta, who is the Director of Product Management and Customer Experience.

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Q4 2020 North American Gen-Set Outlook

The Q4 2020 PSR PowerTracker survey provides information on North American gen-set sales from manufacturers, consumers and retailers. Joe Zirnhelt, Power Systems Research, President and CEO, provides the analysis.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Zirnhelt:

From Power Systems Research, I am Joe Zirnhelt. In today’s PowerTALK podcast we will discuss results from the fourth quarter of 2020 based on our ongoing PowerTracker survey.

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Q1 2021 PowerTracker Summary

Joe Zirnhelt
Joe Zirnhelt

The Q1 2021 PSR PowerTracker survey provides information on North American gen-set sales trends. Joe Zirnhelt, Power Systems Research President and CEO, provides the analysis.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR Power Talk podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

From Power Systems Research I am Joe Zirnhelt. And in today’s PowerTALK podcast we will discuss results from the first quarter of 2021 based on our ongoing PowerTracker survey.

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Edge Computing Brings Data Closer To Home

John Krzesicki
John Krzesicki

It’s often said that there’s nothing new under the sun, only new ways of doing old things. That may be especially true in how we handle data.

Ever since Power Systems Research began tracking global production of engines and powertrains in 1976, its analysts have been alert to new trends surrounding power and data movement.

Today, as three essential metrics in data handling change— cloud costs, volume and processing time—, the structure of data networks also is changing. In many cases, it’s not practical to send vast amounts of data to the cloud to be processed and then wait for the results. Now, it’s often necessary to have smaller data centers located near the activity, at the edge of the action, if you will.

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Publications POWER SYSTEMS RESEARCH (PSR): Another in Our Series of EGSA Member Company Profiles

This article appeared in the July/August 2016 issue of Powerline Magazine, published by EGSA (Electrical Generating Systems Association)

This is the story of a 40-year-old company that carried on
and succeeded following the sudden and tragic death of its
Founder and President last year. Early in 2015, George Zirnhelt,
the dynamic and creative Founder and President of Power Systems
Research (PSR), passed away from injuries sustained in an
accident while vacationing in Mexico.

The PSR global team rebounded from this loss, immediately
implementing a crisis operations plan and a management transition
program that were both already put in place. Instead of losing
ground, the company finished 2015 strong, by following through
on several strategic tasks that George had initiated and implemented
to position the company for future growth and expansion.

Already in Q1, 2016 revenue was the best in more than a decade
– a sign that the company is moving forward despite tragic loss.
PSR is an internationally-recognized leader in the collection,
analysis and forecasting of production information for engines

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PowerTALK News, August 2019

North America Economy Slows and Shifts

The August 2019 issue of PowerTALK News, the monthly report of world news and analysis from Power Systems Research, contains an economic outlook report for North America and a guest editorial by Mr. Kenichiro Wada, who discusses the near-term problems facing Japanese auto OEMs as they develop autonomous vehicles.

The North American economic forecast by Yosyf Sheremeta, Director of Product Management & Customer Experience. During H1 2019, he writes, the economy remained stable and pure economic conditions in the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains flat to positive for most market segments. “However,” he writes, “we see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.”

Here are other Top Stories in the August issue:

• Guest Editorial: Japanese Autonomous
• Data Point: US Off-Hwy Trucks
• China Has Largest EV Charging Network
• Brazil Harvester Sales Grow
• CAT Brazil Shows New Units
• Manitou Sees Slowdown
• Doosan Introduces Electric Units
• India 2-Wheel Sales Fall
• India 2-Wheel Inventories Climb
• Russian Auto Plant Begun
• Russian Machinery Sales Up 30%
• Russia, China Team Up

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Brazil/South America Report

This report appeared in the March issue of PowerTALKNews

Coronavirus Jeopardizes Brazil AG Machine Production

Lack of components coming from China may be a problem because of work interruptions caused by the coronavirus. According to the Brazilian Machinery Builders´ Association (ABIMAQ), the risk of supply stoppages is high. The Chinese content of an Agricultural Machine produced in Brazil is estimated to be 10% to 15%, with higher concentration on electronics components.

Source: M&T / Globo Rural Read The Article

PSR Analysis: This is an opportunity for local and international players to start
supplying these companies as an alternative source. The time window is short for
development of alternative sources, but global companies may start risk mitigation
plans. Understanding the opportunities, volumes and component content will be
key at this moment.

Production of Cars in Peru Drops 54% in One Year

The combination of market decline by 31% and the increase of vehicle imports
are the main reasons for the drastic reduction in production. From 2010 to
2015, the local production has been above the imports, with significant exports
to neighbor countries as Colombia and Peru. From 2016 – 2018, imports grew
from 31,000 to 103,000 units, while the production grew from 29,000 to 42,000
between 2016 and 2017, after a significant market growth, but reduced from
42,000 to 18,000 in 2019 with the competition from imports.

Source: PSR / AEADE Source: M&T Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Currency policy changes and changes in automotive industry
regulations are the main reasons for the shift in the automotive industry of
Ecuador. These changes affect not only Ecuador, but also the ability to reach
neighbor countries with its products, opening space for other players, like
Brazilian and Chinese. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is PSR Director, Business Development, South America

NA Economic Outlook: Slower H1 2021, But Much Stronger H2 2021 Expected

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  In our previous forecasts, we have discussed some hope for a V-shaped recovery, it did not materialize.  Our conclusion was based on several factors, such as the current economic cycle, overall strength of the economy, fiscal policy, political landscape in the US and globally, etc. After managing through the early stages of the pandemic in H1 2020, we saw good trends in H2 2020 and we had reasons to be optimistic for a quick recovery.

However, the recovery took a slight pause during the last few months.  Unemployment continued to increase, and regional lockdowns prevented the necessary demand for a significant year-end growth.  Now that the elections are over, we’ll have yet to see what the new administration will be able to achieve during the next two years.  Specifically, if the long awaited infrastructure reform can be passed.  However, fiscal policy with near zero interest rates, which government has promised to keep in place for the near future, will provide a good platform for the economic recovery and allow us to look optimistically into 2021-2022.

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Strong Post-pandemic Growth Expected into 2022-23 for North America

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  After the GDP declined 3.5% last year, the worst performance in almost 75 years, the US economy is set for a strong comeback.  There are many reasons to be optimistic about the economy for the next few years, including strong readings of macro-economic factors combined with the economic cycle reset backed by government initiatives and policies.

Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation. 

During H1 2021, we witnessed a strong level of activities and a rebound for many industries.  As local governments eased lockdown restrictions, service-oriented industries gained traction and that translated to an overall increase of economic activities across many industries. 

We expect this level of rebound to continue and we now expect even stronger overall growth for 2021.  The US economy is on track to reach or even surpass the growth level of 1984 – the highest one since 1950s.  In the near term, consumer spending will help drive demand and support the strong growth trend.

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Russia Economic Outlook – April 2021

Maxim Sakov, Market Consultant-Russia for Power Systems Research, discusses his Q1 2021 economic outlook for Russia in this episode of PSR PowerTALK.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Emiliano Marzoli:

From Power Systems Research, hello everyone. I’m Emiliano Marzoli, editor of PSR PowerTALK, and today I will discuss the economic outlook for Russia with Maxim Sakov, our marketing consultant in Moscow. Maxim provides our clients with economic and production forecasts for Russia each quarter. And thank you for joining us today, Maxim.

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