Russia Economic Outlook – April 2021

Maxim Sakov, Market Consultant-Russia for Power Systems Research, discusses his Q1 2021 economic outlook for Russia in this episode of PSR PowerTALK.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Emiliano Marzoli:

From Power Systems Research, hello everyone. I’m Emiliano Marzoli, editor of PSR PowerTALK, and today I will discuss the economic outlook for Russia with Maxim Sakov, our marketing consultant in Moscow. Maxim provides our clients with economic and production forecasts for Russia each quarter. And thank you for joining us today, Maxim.

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Southeast Asia: COVID-19 Stalls China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Southeast Asia’s infrastructure development has begun to stall. China, which has been supporting the project, has been unable to proceed with its Belt and Road initiative for a broad economic zone due to restrictions on movement caused by the new coronavirus.

Akihiro Komuro
Akihito Komuro

Southeast Asian countries also are prioritizing infection control and curbing the funds and human resources they invest in development. A major delay in the construction of infrastructure, which is the foundation of growth, could force foreign investors to reconsider their investment plans.

In Indonesia, work on a high-speed railway (about 140 kilometers) linking the capital Jakarta with the major city of Bandung was recently halted. The project is financed by a Chinese bank, and the state-owned company is involved in the construction. The opening is expected to be postponed from the scheduled 2021.

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Doosan Sells 10,000 Excavators in China in H1 2020

Doosan Infracore announced that it sold 10,728 hydraulic excavators in China in H1 2020. This is the company’s largest sales volume in nine years since it sold more than 12,000 units in the market in H1 2011. The company sold 1,320 excavators in June, a 23% increase in sales over the previous year.

Akihiro Komuro
Akihito Komuro

China’s hydraulic excavator market suffered a slowdown in the first two months of the year due to COVID-19 but is now consistently showing signs of a rapid recovery. Overall sales in the Chinese hydraulic excavator market exceeded 155,000 units in H1 2020, significantly exceeding the 125,000 units sold nationwide in H1 2019.

Source: Kikai-News (The original article was partially revised by the author.)

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China’s Changan Auto To Build EV Plant in Thailand

SOUTHEAST ASIA: THAI REPORT

Changan Automobile Group, a major Chinese automobile manufacturer, will establish a new plant for electric vehicles such as EVs in Thailand, according to the Board of Investment of Thailand (BOI). The investment will be US$ 284 million (9.8 billion baht or about 38 billion yen), and construction is expected to be completed within a few years. The initial production capacity will be 100,000 vehicles a year, and on-board batteries will also be manufactured. The Thai government has established an incentive program to encourage local production of EVs, and Chinese EV giants have been actively investing in the country.

In addition to EVs, the new plant will produce electric vehicles such as HVs and PHVs. The company plans to supply vehicles to Southeast Asian countries, Australia, South Africa, and other markets.

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Hyundai China Sales Drop 77% in Six Years

FAR EAST: SOUTH KOREA REPORT

South Korea’s Hyundai Motor has announced that it will sell two plants in China. Beijing Hyundai, a joint venture with China’s state-owned auto giant Beijing Automotive Group, will reduce the number of plants in operation to two. Sluggish sales in the Chinese market have prompted the company to make structural reforms.

Hyundai Motor’s sales in China were 260,000 units in 2022; in 2016 it sold 1.13 million units, a 77% decline in six years.

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China Auto OEM To Invest in Thai EV Motorbike Plant

THAILAND REPORT

Chinese automotive equipment manufacturer Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology plans to build an electric motorcycle factory in Thailand’s Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), eyeing a market set to grow, thanks to government subsidies.

The company plans to invest $281 million (10 billion baht) to secure annual production capacity of 150,000 units by 2028. The plans were revealed by the office of the EEC.

Suzhou Harmontronics will build the factory at an industrial park in Chonburi Province, within the EEC zone, and will assemble electric motorcycles and manufacturing replaceable batteries and charging equipment at the facility. A start date for operations was not disclosed.

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Russia New Car Sales Drop 70% in April

New car sales plummeted by 102,000 vehicles in April, the largest monthly car sales decline in history in Russian, according to the Association of European Business.

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

During April, Russia introduced strict quarantine measures because of the coronavirus, causing car sales to fall by 102,089 units, or 72.4%.

After strong sales in March, dealers have had to suspend or restrict their activity.

“Black April” has dealt a strong blow to dealer cash liquidity, and seriously affected stability during middle-term period. The dealers are preparing to restart their business in May; however, they don’t expect significant sales growth.

AutoVAZ , the largest Russian car manufacturer, reported sales declined by three times in April over March.

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China Delays Nationwide NS 6 Regulation

The Ecology and Environment Ministry is extending the transition period for OEMs and the sales period for NS 5 inventory products.

Source: China Central Television      Read The Article

PSR Analysis:

So here comes the impact of coronavirus for the industry.  But what we should bear in mind is that despite this latest news, the capital metro area, the Yangtze delta area and the Zhujiang River Delta area, three of the most prosperous areas in China, have already implemented NS 6 regulation. 

These regions can’t roll back their policy. If any OEMs not ready to go NS 6, they should do it now.  COVID-19 buys some time, but it won’t be so forever.    PSR

Qin Fen is Business Development Manager