The Brazil trailer industry registered 163,000 new license plates in 2021 vs. 122,000 in 2020, growing 33.5%. The result could have been even better since the segment was affected by a lack of components, such as steel, tires, etc. Export sales climbed to 4,600 units vs. 2,100 units in 2021.
PSR Analysis: The growth is in line with truck sales that confirm the health of the transportation industry. The growth of exports confirms the recovery of key markets of Trailers and MHV.
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South AmericaforPowerSystems Research
PSR Analysis: The Indian Automotive Industry was largely left disappointed with the budget after no direct steps were taken to arrest the decline in automotive sales. Although keeping long term benefits in mind, the budget did introduce measures to boost the rural economy, which in turn will directly benefit the commercial vehicle industry which is an important driver for the economy.
This year’s festive season fired up vehicle registrations but failed to match 2019 sales numbers. Vehicle sales, which peak during the festive season in India, account for about 40% of annual volume. Sales in the just-concluded season this year were better than in the past two COVID years but were far below the sales level of 2019.
“Auto Retail for October 2022 saw an overall growth of 48%,” said Manish Raj Singhania, president of FADA. With most of the month under the festive period, the sentiments were extremely positive across all categories of dealership outlets.”
Chris Fisher is responsible for developing and managing all information products related to the global commercial vehicle industry. He received his Business Administration degree from the University of Nebraska. Prior to coming to work at Power Systems Research, Chris worked at Baldwin Filters as a Market Analyst, OEM Account Representative, and as the Manager of Engineering Services. Chris has been with Power Systems Research since 2006 and has written and published many articles and is a key contributor to Transport Topics, Bloomberg, Diesel Progress and various other publications.
In this episode of PSR PowerTALK, Chris Fisher, senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research, talks about the reasons for the 42.5% first quarter 2021 drop in global truck production.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont:
From Power systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today we’ll discuss global truck production with Chris Fisher, PSR, senior commercial vehicle analyst.
THAILAND–Vehicles produced in Thailand are exported to the world, including Asia, Oceania, the Middle East and Europe. However, the automobile industry is in trouble because of the double punch of the global economy slowing down due to the US-China trade friction and the spread of the new coronavirus.
Akihito Komuro
Exports, which account for half of Thailand’s automobile
production, where Japanese and other automakers such as Toyota and Honda have
production bases, have fallen, and vehicle production turned negative for the
first time in five years in 2019. In addition, the spread of the new
coronavirus is catching up. It is expected that the impact on Thailand’s
automobile industry will be even greater if the shutdown of factories in China
and production cutoffs are prolonged and parts procurement is delayed.
PSR Analysis: From about September 2019, it has been reported that many Southeast Asian automobile industries, including Thailand, have begun to slow down, but this has been attributed to a slowdown in trade due to US-China trade friction.
Today, of course, there is the same problem, but the rapid spread of COVID-19 is a new problem. Many automotive industries around the world are supported by the supply of parts from China, and a slowdown in supply could severely impact car production. Especially in Southeast Asia such as Thailand and Indonesia. PSR
Akihiro Komuro is a Research Analyst covering the Far East and Southeast Asia for Power Systems Research.
According to Scott Yarbrough, senior analyst for motorcycle and powersports at Black Book: “After the first month of the COVID-19, shutdowns put a freeze on powersports values during the beginning of the spring selling season, and the second month saw dramatic declines.
This month values are up across the board, some by the largest amounts we have ever seen in a monthly update. A combination of surprisingly strong demand, coupled with drops in availability of units, has led to this resurgence in values,”
As the industry is coming out from the COVID impact, its growth is hurt by a shortage of semiconductors. Many OEMs have revised the production plans downward due to this shortage. We anticipate the shortage of semiconductors will exist for the next 4-5 months. Though it will hamper monthly production, it will have only a moderate impact on the total year’s production. But If the chip shortage lasts, production cuts could reduce the inventory of vehicles for sale in India and overseas markets.
The issue started in the Q2 2020. Due to COVID-19, auto OEMs worldwide drastically reduced their production and component orders. Concurrently, chipmakers were improving the supply chain, which had been disrupted by COVID-19. They witnessed a spurt in orders from electronics companies for items such as phones, laptops, gaming console makers and witnessed a spike in sales volume during the pandemic caused by changing work and school patterns.
The Russian auto market’s increased demand for new passenger cars has caused inventory shortages, and these shortages have caused Russian authorities to suspend State programs of industry support.
In May, for example, the number of the cars sold increased by 2.3 times, compared to same period in 2020. This growth is partly the result of pandemic restrictions last year. A total of 663,000 new cars have been delivered to the customers this year, up 39% from a year ago.
Another reason for the shortage of cars in Russia is a shortage of semiconductor chips.
2021’s festive period from Navratri to Diwali (October) marked the worst performance for India automakers in nearly a decade. Usually, sales of PVs peak during the period, however, the demand was much lower this year.
Further, two-wheeler and tractor sales dropped by about 10%. The major reason for this drop is supply-side challenges on semiconductors and lack of demand in entry-level segments for both PVs and two-wheelers.
In the commercial vehicles space, the situation was somewhat better with an increase in demand for interstate movement of goods.
Adequate rainfall across the country along with the start of the long festive season will keep the demand for automobiles positive and help keep the momentum going in this segment. Additionally, normal monsoons in most parts of the country resulting in a decent agricultural harvest kept demand positive. So, automakers are focusing on building up inventory in anticipation of higher demand
The Indian economy is poised to shrug off the modest tapering of growth in Q1 2022, and aggregate demand is firm and set to expand as the festival season sets in. Hatchback cars and affordable, non-electric motorcycles and scooters are set to register bumper sales in the coming months as India gets ready to celebrate its first ‘normal’ festive season after a gap of two years. Above-normal rains, positive consumer sentiment and a generally optimistic mood are also expected to boost sales of these entry-level vehicles.
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