COVID Creates Challenges and Opportunities in Power Gen

If you were hoping for COVID-19 to disappear from the news by the school year, it’s obviously not going to happen. With major companies like Google announcing they won’t be sending employees back to their offices until the summer of 2021 and COVID metrics climbing again in the South and West, we probably will be working on the impact of the pandemic well into next year.

Tyler Wiegert
Tyler Wiegert

It could almost be considered a truism to say that COVID-19 has been bad for business. The 33% annualized decline in GDP in Q2 2020 would apparently confirm that, and even the most positive about the economy must concede that a 9.5% single-quarter contraction is painful, to say the least. With businesses closed and housing starts in June lagging 4% behind last year, even with the brief reprieve when states began to reopen, the power generation segment has been hit hard by the pandemic.

Cummins, a giant in the industry, announced at the end of July that its revenues for Q2 2020 had fallen 38% from Q2 2019. That increased to 48% when looking at North America alone. Engine sales were down 47%, and power generation revenues declined by 37%. While Cummins was able to achieve positive net income because of a quick ramp-up in production in China after the worst of the virus had passed there, it was less than half of net income from Q2 2019.

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We Expect 2020 NA Overall OEM Production To Be Flat

This article initially appeared in the February 2020 issue of PowerTALK News.

SUMMARY.  The North American economy remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

Consumer confidence declined slightly in December, following a moderate increase in November.  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4 points higher than in September 2019. 

Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”

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Union Budget Push To Expand Highways and EVs

INDIA REPORT 
Aditya Kondejkar

The 2022-2023 Budget is focused on building long-term strength using investment as the growth lever while maintaining policy stability and inclusivity. The 35% increased capex outlay, major infrastructure projects like 25,000 km road construction, 100 Cargo terminals, Project GatiShakti, 5G network, optic fiber cable laying and the recent PLI schemes are major positives.

Source: Auto Guide India    Read The Article

 “The blueprint of a digitally enabled, Aatmanirbhar Bharat, coupled with measures that will drive sustainable yet inclusive growth at a rapid pace for the next twenty-five years. These are the bedrock of the proposals announced in the Union Budget 2022-23, as we redefine our economy in a post-pandemic world. Setting the direction for creation of urban fossil fuel free zones, policy for battery swapping and energy as service and incentives for creating a vibrant start-up eco system, India could soon emerge as a fore-runner of green mobility solutions for the world” – Sunjay J Kapur, President ACMA (Automobile component manufacturers association of India)

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2019 GIE+Expo Posts Strong Growth. Battery Technology Continues Hot

GIE+EXPO: The Green Industry & Equipment Expo

GIE+EXPO is the annual gathering for all segments of the outdoor power equipment and lawn and landscape industry. The event is sponsored by the Outdoor Power Equipment Institute, the Professional Grounds Management Society and the National Association of Landscape Professionals.

This year, the show drew more than 26,500 people from around the world. The indoor exhibit floor and the Outdoor Demonstration Area covered 24,000 net sq. ft. more than last year.

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Q2 2021 Truck Production Report

Chris Fisher, Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research, discusses the Q2 2021 global production facts and related forecasts for medium and heavy trucks, as reported in the quarterly PSR Truck Production Index.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Delmont

From Power Systems Research, I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.

Today we’ll discuss global truck production with Chris Fisher. Chris is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research.

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Q2 2023 Economic Update Is Mostly Positive

GLOBAL REPORT
Guy Youngs
Guy Youngs

SUMMARY. There are several factors that could contribute to modest growth in the second half of this year as we await final numbers for the quarter. This should lead to total production globally growing at +2.6% in 2023 (vs 2022). Given this 2023 growth, the outlook for the years into 2028 remains positive.

Apart from Russia and Ukraine, the main country to show a decline is South Korea, while Japan is barely positive. However, the segment picture shows some differences.

  • Fuel prices have eased recently, but they remain a serious concern.
  • Supply chains remain constrained.
  • The war in Ukraine shows no sign of a speedy conclusion, despite recent successes by Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian exports of wheat, other grains and fertilizer continue but are still low compared to pre-war levels.
  • Inflation continues to be a concern and central banks are raising their interest rates. This will pose a risk to economic growth in all regions. Inflation and price increases are putting OEMs in a tricky situation.
  • Risk of recession appears in several countries including the USA and Germany.
  • Covid is still lingering with global deaths now at over 6.9 million, but the death rate has slowed considerably.
  • Latent demand for machinery keeps bursting out into the open.
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Global: Recovery Is Strong, but Uneven

GLOBAL REPORT
Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  The global economy performed very well in 2021 and continues to recover, along with trade, employment and incomes. But the revival is unbalanced, with regions/countries, businesses and people facing very different economic realities. Recent improvements also conceal structural changes, which means that some sectors, jobs, and technologies will not return to their pre-pandemic trends. Based on the most recent economic developments and trends, Power Systems Research remains somewhat optimistic about the global recovery.

Many of us hoped to be in the post-Covid phase by now, but it is evident that there is no quick way out.  The pandemic has had a profound impact on the world economy, and it will continue to challenge established norms of life and business into the foreseeable future.  As we start the new year, many challenges remain, new and old alike: re-surgency of COVID variants, restrictions on travel, supply chain challenges, shortages of materials/goods, inflation, and employment, as well as renewed geopolitical tensions across many parts of the globe.

Power Systems Research witnessed a strong economic recovery globally in 2021, despite regional differences.  Output in most OECD countries has now either surpassed or is about to reach pre-pandemic levels, but lower-income economies, particularly those where vaccination rates are low, are at risk of being left behind.  Furthermore, the rebound will continue to vary widely among different market segments.  

Global inflation re-surfaced in 2021 and presents a real risk to economic recovery in all regions. The renewed inflationary pressure risks lasting longer than was expected a few months ago.  The surge in retail and wholesale energy costs in late 2021 will undermine economic growth prospects for large parts of Europe and Northeast Asia well into 2022.  Rising food and energy prices already have impact on low-income households in particular. 

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Power Systems Research Forecasts 13% Rebound in Mining Equipment Production in 2021

Jim Downey talks with Sarah Jensen from OEM Off-Highway for their OEM Industry Update podcast. We present it here with their permission.

On this week’s episode of OEM Industry Update, we spoke with Jim Downey, Vice President-Global Data Products, Power Systems Research, about the current state of the North American mining equipment market. He says mining equipment production is expected to rebound 13% in 2021 and continue growing over the next 5 years.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.

00:14 Sarah Jensen:

Welcome to OEM industry update. A weekly podcast examining the latest news and technology trends impacting product development teams in the heavy duty on and off-highway equipment industry.

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Q3 2021 European Economic Outlook

In this episode of PSR PowerTALK, Christopher Bamforth, European Market Analyst for Power Systems Research, comments on his Q3 2021 outlook for the European economy.

Transcript 

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research. 

00:00:06 Emiliano Marzoli 

From Power Systems Research I am Emiliano Marzoli, editor of PSR PowerTalk, and today we’ll discuss an update on the economic outlook for Europe with Christopher Bamforth, our European Market Analyst. 

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Global Economic Fundamentals Strong, But Uncertainties Linger

This report is excerpted from the Q3 2019 Update Bulletin prepared for clients of Power Systems Research, Oct. 1, 2019.

SUMMARY. If you were to look at the latest global macro-economic fundamentals, you would see a strong and healthy economy and a rosy picture.  On the other hand, if you follow the latest updates on key industries and their players worldwide, optimism is not that strong. 

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