Near Term Recession Fears Recede in North America

SUMMARY.  The North American economy remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

Consumer confidence declined slightly in December, following a moderate increase in November.  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4 points higher than in September 2019. 

Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”

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PG&E Blackouts Lead to Best Fourth Quarter for Mid-Range Power in Five Years

SUMMARY: Gen-set sales in Q4 2019 rose 3.5% from Q3 2019, driven primarily by growth in the middle power ranges. The 21-50kW range experienced the fastest growth at 7.5%, followed by 10-20kW at 3.7% and 101-300kW at 3.5%.

When looking at this growth by application, we see that standbys were the only application to experience meaningful growth this quarter, ending with a strong 7.5% increase. Unlike previous quarters, this increased demand came from more than residential consumers. Institutional and industrial consumers increased their demand by 2.5% and 3.75%, respectively. This is the strongest fourth quarter showing for these consumer types in the last five years.

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COVID-19 Variant Disrupts Supply Chain

Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

In Southeast Asia, where the delta variant of the COVID-19 is spreading rapidly, business activities are becoming stagnant. In response to government regulations and the rapid increase in the number of infected people, major Japanese companies such as Toyota and Panasonic have suspended production at some of their plants. In addition to the decline in local sales, the disruption of the supply chain has also affected production in Japan.

Toyota has sequentially shut down all three of its plants in Thailand since July 20. The company has not yet decided when to resume operations because it has been unable to procure parts due to an outbreak of infection at one of its customers’ plants. Honda also shut down one of its plants in Thailand from August 3 to 5.

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Global Motorcycle Market Grows at 5.48% Rate

GLOBAL REPORT
Michael Aistrup
Michael Aistrup

The global motorcycle market is growing at a healthy CAGR of 5.48%, according to Power Systems Research. Revenue for 2021 was approximately $107.1 Billion and projected to be $146.6 Billion by 2030.

Growth during this period is primarily due to increasing demand from China, India, and ASEAN countries. In addition, growth in traditional markets such as Europe and North America is also anticipated.

The growth of drivers for the Motorcycle industry come from the requirement for cost-effective private transportation among people around the world.

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Mahindra Plans To Double Tractor Exports

INDIA REPORT
Aditya Kondejkar

“Our aim is that with the launch of Oja (platform), we will double our export in the next three years,” says Hemant Sikka, president of Mahindra’s farm equipment sector. “So, we want to increase exports from 18,000 to 36,000 in about three years.”

In collaboration with Mitsubishi Mahindra Agriculture Machinery, Japan, and an investment of INR 1200 crore, the new Oja platform could help Mahindra win 25% of the worldwide tractor demand. This includes tapping into new markets such as Europe and ASEAN, as well as strengthening its presence in sectors like horticulture.

Source: Economic Times    Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The launch of Mahindra Tractors’ new Oja platform underscores a strategic move with several critical business implications. First, the entry into the 80,000 unit ASEAN market represents an expansion initiative, targeting countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines. This move aligns with the company’s global growth strategy, capitalizing on the increasing demand for tractors in these emerging markets.

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Trouble in India’s Motown

This report first appeared in the September 2019 issue of PowerTALK.

The bad times in the India automobile market started with the slowdown in Q4 2018, triggered by the NBFC (Non-Banking Financial Companies) crisis. Since then it has been 10 consecutive months of hard times for almost all automobile segments. All the segments in the country, be it passenger cars or commercial vehicles, have registered a decline.

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Urban Railroads Delayed

SOUTHEAST ASIA: VIETNAM REPORT

The development of urban railroads in Vietnam has been significantly delayed. The opening of the second line in the capital Hanoi is expected to be delayed to 2027, and the first line in the southern city of Ho Chi Minh City may not open until the end of 2023.

In addition to financial difficulties, there are cases where administrative authorities are not proactively resolving problems, leading to further delays.

In mid-September, Hanoi City abandoned the planned Hanoi Urban Railway Line 3 (Nhon Hanoi Station), which was planned to run through the center of the city, to open by the end of the year. The line is 12.5 kilometers long. Construction of the line began in 2010, and although it was originally planned to open in 2015, it is believed that the plan has already been changed about five times.

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Winter is Coming…(and Consumers are Ready). Q3 2019 Report

SUMMARY: Gen-set sales in Q3 2019 rose 7% from Q2 2019, due to a continued strong demand for standby power systems. Standby systems in both the residential and commercial sectors drove the 7% growth (the highest QoQ growth of the year so far), with the 10-20kW range increasing sales by nearly 12% and the 21-50kW, 51-100, and 101-300kW ranges growing 5-7%.

On a Year-on-Year basis, overall unit sales for Q3 2019 were up 2.9% compared to sales levels in Q3 2018.

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Global Economic Fundamentals Strong, But Uncertainties Linger

This report is excerpted from the Q3 2019 Update Bulletin prepared for clients of Power Systems Research, Oct. 1, 2019.

SUMMARY. If you were to look at the latest global macro-economic fundamentals, you would see a strong and healthy economy and a rosy picture.  On the other hand, if you follow the latest updates on key industries and their players worldwide, optimism is not that strong. 

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