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Yosyf Sheremeta, PhD, Director of Product Management and Customer Experience, analyzes the North American economic outlook by industry segment.
Transcript
Welcome to the PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont
From Power Systems Research, I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.
Today, we’ll talk with Yosyf Sheremeta about the economic outlook for North America. Yosyf is Director of Product Management and Customer Experience for Power Systems Research.
Production of Rough Terrain Forklifts in the U.S. this year is expected to be about 14,400 units, according to Carol Turner, PSR Senior Analyst, Global Operations. Her report is one of the Top Stories in the March 2019 issue of the PSR PowerTALK newsletter.
Other stories include a report on the 2019 Moscow Boat Show, a report on Q4 2018 gen-set sales in North America as part of PSR’s quarterly PowerTRACKER proprietary survey, plus stories from Asia, India, South America and Europe.
SUMMARY. In our previous forecasts, we have discussed some hope for a V-shaped recovery, it did not materialize. Our conclusion was based on several factors, such as the current economic cycle, overall strength of the economy, fiscal policy, political landscape in the US and globally, etc. After managing through the early stages of the pandemic in H1 2020, we saw good trends in H2 2020 and we had reasons to be optimistic for a quick recovery.
However, the recovery took a slight pause during the last few months. Unemployment continued to increase, and regional lockdowns prevented the necessary demand for a significant year-end growth. Now that the elections are over, we’ll have yet to see what the new administration will be able to achieve during the next two years. Specifically, if the long awaited infrastructure reform can be passed. However, fiscal policy with near zero interest rates, which government has promised to keep in place for the near future, will provide a good platform for the economic recovery and allow us to look optimistically into 2021-2022.
SUMMARY. After the GDP declined 3.5% last year, the worst performance in almost 75 years, the US economy is set for a strong comeback. There are many reasons to be optimistic about the economy for the next few years, including strong readings of macro-economic factors combined with the economic cycle reset backed by government initiatives and policies.
Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation.
During H1 2021, we witnessed a strong level of activities and a rebound for many industries. As local governments eased lockdown restrictions, service-oriented industries gained traction and that translated to an overall increase of economic activities across many industries.
We expect this level of rebound to continue and we now expect even stronger overall growth for 2021. The US economy is on track to reach or even surpass the growth level of 1984 – the highest one since 1950s. In the near term, consumer spending will help drive demand and support the strong growth trend.
Natasa Mulahalilovic is PSR MarineLink Product Manager
Emiliano Marzoli is Senior Business Development Manager – Europe
Dalibor Sablic is Senior Business Development Manager – Europe
SUMMARY: The general mood at Boot 2020 this year was very positive. Most builders said they had a very successful nautical 2018/2019 year, and most said they are looking forward to a good year in 2020. The show drew 240,000 visitors who had an opportunity to meet 1,900 exhibitors from 71 countries.
The Sailing boats segment is coming back on track, motorboats of all sizes are doing well, the super yachts segment remains strong, and inflatable boats and tenders have gained in popularity. The optimistic view for 2020 is based on good year-end results, continuous investments in new technologies, materials, equipment, design and exciting new boat concepts.
Natasa Mulahalilovic
Modern designs, completely new looks, use of light and solid material, work on multi-functionality and openness of the boats is visible everywhere and in all segments. Boats are open more than ever, providing more space and light, and bringing riders closer to the water.
The environmental awareness is growing, and a new generation of boaters is looking for cleaner solutions, not just comfort. That’s why the sailing segment is gaining ground, electric boats are appealing to the general curiosity, and small and medium motorboats are more attractive than in last 10 years when the trend was towards bigger motor yachts and super yachts.
17 Halls of Boats, Boats and More Boats
Duesseldorf, Germany–The Power Systems Research (PSR) team spent several days exploring the 17 halls at this year’s Boot 2020 Show, reviewing products and talking with pleasure boat builders, traders and other industry professionals about the latest achievements, innovations and trends.
The 51st edition of Boot 2020, Europe’s largest boat show, wrapped up January 26, after drawing attendance of 240,000 for the nine-day event. People came mainly from Europe, but they came from all over the world, as well.
SUMMARY. The North American economy
remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in
the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the
short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we
see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.
Yosyf Sheremeta
Consumer
confidence declined slightly in December, following a moderate increase in November. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence
Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4 points higher than in September 2019.
Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of
Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved,
their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their
short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy
hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that
growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”
In part 3 of “Living on the Edge” John Krzesicki examines microgrids with his guest Thomas Bourgeois, Deputy Director of the Pace Energy and Climate Center.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 John Krzesicki
Hello, my name is John Krzesicki. Today it’s my pleasure to host the Power Systems “Living on the Edge” series. The show we have conversation with industry experts on their insight into the future of intelligent technology.
SUMMARY. The United States economy is facing several serious problems that don’t have simple solutions and are not likely to be solved for several years, reaching out to the presidential elections in 2024.
Take your pick of problems: Inflation. Stock Market. Climate Changes. Interest Rates. Housing Prices. Gasoline Prices. Food Prices. Social Unrest. Political Conflicts. Worker shortages. Supply Chain Shortages. Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
The bottom line here is that consumers, investors, businesses, and governments are uncertain about what the future holds for the next several years, and this uncertainty makes it difficult to build multiple-year action plans, whether it’s for purchases, manufacturing, marketing, or investing.
Uncertainty makes people nervous, and Uncertainty is the name of the game in the U.S. for the foreseeable future.
However, we’re still optimistic about the U.S. economy and we see 2022 production growing by 11.6% but that activity is likely to fall to 2.7% next year and drop again to 1.5% in 2024.
John Krzesicki talks with Thomas Bourgeois from Pace Energy and Climate Center in his continuing series “Living on the Edge”. In today’s episode John discusses powering greenhouses and local food production.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 John Krzesicki
Hello, my name is John Krzesicki.
Today it’s my pleasure to host the Power Systems “Living on the Edge” series. The show revealed conversations with industry experts and their insight into the future with intelligent technology. With over 30 years of experience supporting the manufacturing industry, I’ve seen an unbelievable change in technology.
(April 1, 2021)–After the GDP declined 3.5% last year, the worst performance in almost 75 years, the US economy is set for a strong comeback. In fact, we could see GDP growth exceeding 6% this year.
There are many reasons to be optimistic about 2021. Strong readings of macro-economic factors combined with the economic cycle reset backed by the government initiatives and policies support our estimates for the current year and beyond.
Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of the key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation. In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, stating a return of demand for most markets in 2021, especially during H2 2021.
Based on our analysis of the expected growth trend and the economic reviews in major publications, we think US growth can surpass the growth level from 1984 – the highest one since 1950s.
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