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SUMMARY: Gen-set sales climbed 5% over Q1 2018 levels in anticipation of the camping season and end of fiscal year for many government and industrial consumers. While fewer dealers commented on specific-storm related residential demand this quarter, the 5% growth this quarter does seem to indicate that last year’s hurricanes may have raised the gen-set market up to a new normal, especially when compared to the 1.8% growth reported in Q2 of 2017.
Chris Fisher is responsible for developing and managing all information products related to the global commercial vehicle industry. He received his Business Administration degree from the University of Nebraska. Prior to coming to work at Power Systems Research, Chris worked at Baldwin Filters as a Market Analyst, OEM Account Representative, and as the Manager of Engineering Services. Chris has been with Power Systems Research since 2006 and has written and published many articles and is a key contributor to Transport Topics, Bloomberg, Diesel Progress and various other publications.
Chris Fisher, Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research, discusses the Q2 2021 global production facts and related forecasts for medium and heavy trucks, as reported in the quarterly PSR Truck Production Index.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont
From Power Systems Research, I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.
Today we’ll discuss global truck production with Chris Fisher. Chris is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research.
SUMMARY. 2021 was a year of big hopes for economic recovery and pandemic management, and, overall, the economic rebound was strong. Looking at the state of the economy in general, and the key economic indicators such as GDP, interest rates, employment levels, etc., the North America market finished the year on a very high note. At the same time, development of new pandemic variants as well as ongoing issues with supply chains have led to manufacturing issues.
The second half of 2021 brought steady economic activities and strong economic recovery. Despite this strong performance, many existing and new challenges were seen. Problems from pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, logistics backlogs, and semiconductor shortages to new virus variations and labor market issues have contributed to slower growth in Q4 2021 than during the first half of last year.
Let’s break it down. The “Great Resignation” means companies must make themselves more attractive to new hires, and it provides those workers who remain more leverage to change corporate cultures from the inside.
With help of government support and targeted fiscal policies, the US economy showed a strong comeback in 2021. Furthermore, the growth trajectory is well positioned to continue to expand into the next few years, however, at much slower pace, than in 2021.
At the same time, there are many reasons for us to be optimistic about this trend. Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation. In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, and called for a return of demand for most markets in 2021. Last year, we witnessed a strong level of activities and an economic rebound for
SUMMARY: In this article we provide a global overview on a regional basis of the medium and heavy commercial vehicle market (GVWR > 6 MT’s) along with current trends and OEM happenings in North America.
NORTH AMERICA. MHCV production in North America is expected to decline by 35% in 2020 compared to 2019. However, orders for class 8 trucks improved significantly in Q4 2020 as large fleets placed their orders for a 2021 build. This appears to signal an improvement in demand for 2021 as the market aligns itself with the expected freight level moving forward. The consumer segment was strong during the last half of the year and the industrial segment is now expected to improve, as well.
SUMMARY: Our PowerTrackerTM dealer and distributor survey of 200 respondents reported that overall gen-set sales continued a positive trend in Q4 2020 up 6.3% from Q3 2020 levels. Sales gains could have been even higher because dealers ran out of inventory. This increase follows a slow start to the year in Q1 2020 where overall dealer reported sales were down 9.8% from Q4 2019 levels followed by successive increases of 4.5% in Q2 2020 and 11.9% in Q3 2020.
Although sales were up 6.3% for the fourth quarter, the results were unique in that there was a different story depending on the fuel and power range being considered. The quarterly sales increase was anchored by abnormally high increases for gaseous fueled units in the 10-50 kW range and moderate to large decreases in the other power ranges of gaseous fuels as well as diesel fueled sets.
The data comes from the proprietary PowerTrackerTM series of syndicated surveys conducted each quarter by Power Systems Research. A total of 500 interviews are completed each quarter with gen-set dealers and distributors and businesses across North America.
SUMMARY. The North American economy
remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in
the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the
short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we
see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.
Yosyf Sheremeta
Consumer
confidence declined slightly in December, following a moderate increase in November. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence
Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4 points higher than in September 2019.
Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of
Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved,
their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their
short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy
hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that
growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”
What changes do you see in the PSR Truck Production Index in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter of 2020?
Overall, we are seeing stronger momentum for commercial truck orders and sales which bode well for production in Q1 2021.
Supply chain issues will impact short term production as companies are still having difficulty with staffing numbers and various virus protocols that disrupt production. These problems are expected to continue throughout at least the first half of the year.
Christopher Bamforth is a European Market Research Analyst based in Brussels, Belgium. In this role he will be responsible for supporting European market research, and market data analysis for original equipment and engine applications for Power Systems Research's OE Link™ and EnginLink™ databases. Christopher holds a Bachelor of Arts degree, with Honors, in Business Studies, from the University of Kent, with specialties in marketing, economics and international business. Prior to coming to Power Systems Research, he interned as a market researcher at Dedicated Resources S.A. Belgium. Christopher joined the Power Systems Research team in March of 2014.
In this episode of PSR PowerTALK, Christopher Bamforth, European Market Analyst for Power Systems Research, comments on his outlook for the European economy.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Emiliano Marzoli:
From Power Systems Research, hello, I am Emiliano Marzoli, editor of PSR PowerTALK. And today we’re going to discuss the economic outlook for Europe with Christopher Bamforth, our European Market Analyst.
Chris Fisher is responsible for developing and managing all information products related to the global commercial vehicle industry. He received his Business Administration degree from the University of Nebraska. Prior to coming to work at Power Systems Research, Chris worked at Baldwin Filters as a Market Analyst, OEM Account Representative, and as the Manager of Engineering Services. Chris has been with Power Systems Research since 2006 and has written and published many articles and is a key contributor to Transport Topics, Bloomberg, Diesel Progress and various other publications.
In this episode of PSR PowerTALK, Chris Fisher, senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research, talks about the reasons for the 42.5% first quarter 2021 drop in global truck production.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont:
From Power systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today we’ll discuss global truck production with Chris Fisher, PSR, senior commercial vehicle analyst.
Editor’s Note: This report includes a conversation with Miguel Elizalde Lizárraga, the executive president of ANPACT (the National Association of Bus, Truck and Engine Manufacturers) and a visit to the Expotransporte 2022, the largest truck show in Latin America.
Lorena Violante
ANPACT represents the trucks, buses and engine manufacturers in Mexico. It participates actively with government organizations and other important related associations to ensure the truck and bus industry gets enough support, incentives, alliances, agreements and information to grow in the local market. Also, to continue with their outstanding role as one of the most important exporters of heavy duty vehicles globally.
The ANPACT gathers the most important trucks, buses and engine manufacturers in Mexico such as Kenworth, Freightliner, International, Mercedes Benz, Man, Volkswagen, Scania, Dina, Mack, Volvo, Isuzu, Hino, Detroit and Cummins.
During our conversation, Elizalde provided timely insights into the Mexican transportation industry and the major market challenges this country is facing today.
Chris Fisher
Vehicles manufactured in Mexico produce an important impact on the country’s economy, logistics and mobility. For example, 71% of the foreign trade value is moved to the US through heavy duty trucks. Much of the movement of goods in Mexico is through trucks, and people use buses as their main transportation.
According to ANPACT´s August statistics, manufacturers produced a total of 127,858 heavy duty vehicles from January through August this year. This is 18% more than 2021 production. Through August, export volumes increased by 15.7% (106,824 units) compared to 2021. Retail demand has increased so far by 20.5% (25,196 units).
Current challenges the transportation industry is facing today in Mexico include road safety, environmental regulations implementation, supply chain lead times, driver shortage, e-commerce, vehicles renewals, safety and energy infrastructure.
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