Most Regions Will Post 20%+ Growth in Truck Production

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Editor’s Note: This is an updated report from the Q2 2021 Truck Production Index report produced by Chris Fisher and Jim Downey, Vice President-Global Data Products, in July 2021.

Question: What is the global truck production picture? What is the outlook?

PSR Opinion: Overall, medium and heavy truck demand will finish the year on a strong note, and continued strength is expected into 2022.  On-going supply chain disruptions will continue to impact production throughout the rest of the year and likely into 2022.

Question: What kind of global production volume do you expect for this year?

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Q1 2021 Truck Production Report

In this episode of PSR PowerTALK, Chris Fisher, senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research, talks about the reasons for the 42.5% first quarter 2021 drop in global truck production.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Delmont:

From Power systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today we’ll discuss global truck production with Chris Fisher, PSR, senior commercial vehicle analyst.

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Q2 2020 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Drops 74%

St. Paul, MN (July 22, 2020)— Global truck production was battered by the COVID-19 in Q2 2020, and this decline is reflected in the Q2 2020 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI). The TPI plummeted from 80 to 34, or 57.5%, for the three-month period ended June 30, 2020, compared to Q1 2020. The year-over-year (Q2 2019 to Q2 2020) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 131 to 34, or 74%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

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Q2 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) climbs 193.5%

St. Paul, MN (July 12, 2021)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased 193.5% year-over-year (Q2 2020 to the Q2 2021), moving from 46 to 135. For the three-month period ended June 30, 2021, (Q1 2021 to Q2 2021) the TPI climbed 15.4%, increasing from 117 to 135.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index. Overall, medium and heavy truck demand will finish the year on a strong note and continued strength is expected into 2022.  On-going supply chain disruptions will continue to impact production throughout the rest of the year and possibly into 2022.

All Regions. Except for China, all regions are expected to experience solid commercial vehicle demand growth this year and into 2022.  Chinese heavy truck demand is expected to decline this year primarily due to the implementation of the China VI emission regulations that adds cost to the vehicles but no significant improvement in fuel economy.

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Q2 2021 Truck Production Report

Chris Fisher, Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research, discusses the Q2 2021 global production facts and related forecasts for medium and heavy trucks, as reported in the quarterly PSR Truck Production Index.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Delmont

From Power Systems Research, I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.

Today we’ll discuss global truck production with Chris Fisher. Chris is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research.

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Q3 2017 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) drops 9.5%

St. Paul, MN (October 12, 2017)— The Power Systems Research global Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) deceased from 116 to 105, or -9.5%, for the three-month period ended September 30, 2017, from Q2 2017. However, the year-over-year (Q3 2016 to Q3 2017) gain for the PSR-TPI was 101 to 105, or 3.9%.

Overall, the global commercial truck industry is stronger than it has been in a number of years and is expected to continue to be strong moving into 2018.  While there are still concerns about regional economies such as South America and Greater China, the global economies continue to improve.

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Heavy Truck Sales Fall by More Than 60% in H1 2022

CHINA REPORT
Jack Hao
Jack Hao

The heavy truck industry fell in the first half of 2022 by more than 63% from the previous year. According to the latest statistics from the China Automobile Association, for January to June this year, the overall sales volume of the domestic heavy truck market was about 380,000 units, a decrease of 63.6% compared with the same period last year.

In June, the sales volume of China’s heavy truck industry was only 55,000 units, a year-over-year decrease of 65%. The main reasons for the decline in heavy truck sales this year are the upgrading of emission standard from “China V” to “China VI” last year, which caused a pre-buy in the market, and the impact of the epidemic this year, which depressed the logistics and transportation market, further curbing demand for new trucks.

The heavy truck industry is a cyclical industry, and its development cycle fluctuates due to changes in environmental protection policies and the overall economy. Following a 14 month decline in sales, the primary concern in the heavy truck industry is this: When will there be a turnaround?

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Q2 2022 PSR Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) gains 11.5%

St. Paul, MN (July 13, 2022)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 104 to 116, or11.5%, for the three-month period ended June 30, 2022, from Q1 2022. The year-over-year (Q2 2021 to the Q2 2022) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 130 to 116, or -10.8%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index. Global medium and heavy vehicle production is expected to decline by 10% this year primarily due to a drop in demand in China and Eastern Europe. However, a slowing global economy will also place pressure on demand moving forward.

All Regions. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production will be mixed this year due to a variety of issues. In China, truck and bus overcapacity will hinder demand while the Russian-Ukraine war will significantly impact demand and production in Eastern Europe. Global supply chains will remain a problem through at least the end of this year for all regions. There is critical concern about major slowdowns in the North American and European economies as a direct result of higher fuel prices and inflation which does not appear to be going away anytime soon.

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Q1 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Falls 42.5%

St. Paul, MN (April 13, 2021)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped 42.5% for the three-month period ended March 31, 2021, declining from 186 to 107, from the fourth quarter of 2020. The year-over-year (Q1 2020 to Q1 2021) improvement for the PSR-TPI was 15%, in which it climbed from 93 to 107.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index. While the decline in commercial vehicle demand in China will lower global vehicle demand this year, improved demand is expected in all other regions.

All Regions. Except for China, demand for medium and heavy commercial vehicles has bottomed out and is expected to increase this year and into 2022 as the various economies improve and Coronavirus vaccinations increase.  The market will also experience periodic supply chain disruptions primarily due to the impact from the Coronavirus.

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