The Q4 2020 PSR PowerTracker survey provides information on North American gen-set sales from manufacturers, consumers and retailers. Joe Zirnhelt, Power Systems Research, President and CEO, provides the analysis.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Zirnhelt:
From Power Systems Research, I am Joe Zirnhelt. In today’s PowerTALK podcast we will discuss results from the fourth quarter of 2020 based on our ongoing PowerTracker survey.
St. Paul, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 36 to 109, or 203%, for the three-month period ended Oct. 31, 2020, from the Q2 2020. The year-over-year (Q3 2019 to Q3 2020) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 117 to 109, or 6.8%.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
SUMMARY. The North American economy remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.
Yosyf Sheremeta
Consumer confidence declined slightly in December, following
a moderate increase in November. The
Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4
points higher than in September 2019.
Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at
The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions
improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their
short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy
hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that
growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”
SUMMARY: In this article we provide a global overview on a regional basis of the medium and heavy commercial vehicle market (GVWR > 6 MT’s) along with current trends and OEM happenings in North America.
NORTH AMERICA. MHCV production in North America is expected to decline by 35% in 2020 compared to 2019. However, orders for class 8 trucks improved significantly in Q4 2020 as large fleets placed their orders for a 2021 build. This appears to signal an improvement in demand for 2021 as the market aligns itself with the expected freight level moving forward. The consumer segment was strong during the last half of the year and the industrial segment is now expected to improve, as well.
Looking by application, Portables and Standbys were slightly positive, while Temporary, Peak Shaving, Baseload, and Cogeneration were all negative by double digits compared to Q1 2020. This translated into a 5% increase in sales to Private consumers, and about 6% decreases in Institutional and Industrial sales.
On a Year-on-Year basis, overall unit sales for Q2 2020 were up 1% compared to sales levels in Q2 2019, with Q1 2020 having almost completely wiped out the gains earned in Q3 2020 of last year.
SUMMARY. In our previous forecasts, we have discussed some hope for a V-shaped recovery, it did not materialize. Our conclusion was based on several factors, such as the current economic cycle, overall strength of the economy, fiscal policy, political landscape in the US and globally, etc. After managing through the early stages of the pandemic in H1 2020, we saw good trends in H2 2020 and we had reasons to be optimistic for a quick recovery.
However, the recovery took a slight pause during the last few months. Unemployment continued to increase, and regional lockdowns prevented the necessary demand for a significant year-end growth. Now that the elections are over, we’ll have yet to see what the new administration will be able to achieve during the next two years. Specifically, if the long awaited infrastructure reform can be passed. However, fiscal policy with near zero interest rates, which government has promised to keep in place for the near future, will provide a good platform for the economic recovery and allow us to look optimistically into 2021-2022.
COVID-19 is the most important issue facing our industry globally in decades, and many of the articles in the April issue of PowerTALK News address the impact of this virus on production. Read about the industry’s reaction to coronavirus around the world in this issue. Be certain to review the video and the presentation slides from the PSR Webinar presented April 15, 2020.
If you use construction equipment, or if it’s important for you to know what’s happening in the construction segment in Europe or North and South America, you’ll want to participate in the free one-hour Construction Outlook Webinar produced by Power Systems Research and JCB Power Systems on Monday, Nov. 30, 2020, at 9:00 am CST. You’ll find the details in the November issue of PowerTALK News.
You’ll also find an analysis by Chris Fisher, senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research, of the TRATON-Navistar merger. Other top items in this issue include:
Global truck production declined in 2019 as reflected by the Power Systems Research Q4 2019 Truck Production Index, the company reported in the January issue of its monthly publication, PowerTALK News. Also included in this issue is the Q4 2019 PowerTracker NA generator report and its Q4 2019 Global economic analysis. Other stories in this issue include:
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