News: Passenger Cars, Minivans, and SUVs

2020-05-23

COVID-19 and Lockdown Have Major Impact on Engine-Driven Applications

Even before the COVID-19 crisis, the Indian automotive sector was facing a severe downturn, but the problems were amplified by the Covid-19 pandemic and the lockdowns across India and the rest of the world. The situation was compounded because India was transitioning from BS-IV to the BS-VI era.

Aditya Kondejkar

These are challenging times for the Indian automotive sector because of slow economic growth, negative consumer sentiment, axle load norms, a liquidity crunch, low capacity utilization and potential bankruptcies. The current lockdown has  severely affected the entire ecosystem of engine driven applications in India.

For the first time, automobile OEMs reported zero domestic sales and very limited exports in April.  According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), the industry is losing more than $300 million per day.

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A New Class of Hybrids

The word “hybrid” in the power generation universe has generally been understood to mean a fossil-fuel engine supplemented by another power source, usually a renewable.

Tyler Wiegert
Tyler Wiegert

Then, the word grew to include vehicles and equipment that ran primarily on battery power but could be switched to a smaller engine that would recharge the battery while it ran.

Now, we are entering a time when “hybrid” includes drive systems that are primarily renewable-based and supplemented by an additional renewable system.

In this sphere, alternative power has primarily meant batteries and hydrogen fuel cells; one of the major impediments to wide adoption has always been range.

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Vertical Integration Is Key for Competitive Battery Vehicles

R&D World magazine recently examined the global market for lithium-ion batteries and concluded that there could very well be a shortage in the next decade. They projected that recent investments will ensure supply keeps ahead of demand for at least the next two years, but that the demand for lithium in 2030 will be 2.3x higher than the global output in 2019, and investments may not be happening at the pace needed to meet it.

Tyler Wiegert
Tyler Wiegert

The main bottleneck is that it takes 5-10 years to bring a new lithium or cobalt mine online, but their low prices right now remove some of the incentive to make those investments.

In the absence or shortage of those investments, control of current resources will play a critical role in the production costs of lithium-powered equipment, including on-highway vehicles. In this area, as in many others, Tesla appears to be a leader. The electric car maker has made a number of moves recently to pursue vertical integration, including, most recently, signing a supply deal with Hanwha for battery production equipment. But they are also making moves to secure ownership of the raw materials needed for battery production.

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RUSSIA REPORT: April 2020

Large Russian Automakers Resume Work After One Week Stop

Many automakers who suspended work March 30 in Russian, as ordered by the government to the reduce spread of the COVID-19 resumed work April 6. The firms including KAMAZ, AutoVAZ, GAZ Group, Mazda Sollers.

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

However, 98% of office personnel are working remotely. Started working YAMZ, Yaroslavl plant of diesel apparatus and some production lines of Likino bus plant. Procurement production of GAZ plant in Nizhny Novgorod is also working. Schedule of main production lines will be determined within a week depending on situation on suppliers’ plants.      Read The Article

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2020-03-23

INDIA REPORT, March 2020

Coronavirus Reduces India Auto Components

This article first appeared in the March 2020 issue of PowerTALK™ News

China is one of the leading suppliers of auto components to India, and this supply chain was significantly interrupted in Q1 2020 by the caronavirus. In 2018-19, components worth an estimated US$4.5 billion (out of a total of approximately $17 billion) were exported from China to India. Most of this trade is in electronic components, EGR modules, fuel injection pumps, turbochargers, meter sets, LEDs, magnets, airbag components, and steering system components.

Since the discovery of the Coronavirus in December 2019, this supply chain has been affected. The covid-19 pandemic has started taking a toll on components supply and automotive production in India. The situation is further amplified, as China has terminated all sea routes to other parts of the world.

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2020-03-22

Brazil/South America Report

This report appeared in the March issue of PowerTALK ™ News

Coronavirus Jeopardizes Brazil AG Machine Production

Lack of components coming from China may be a problem because of work interruptions caused by the coronavirus. According to the Brazilian Machinery Builders´ Association (ABIMAQ), the risk of supply stoppages is high. The Chinese content of an Agricultural Machine produced in Brazil is estimated to be 10% to 15%, with higher concentration on electronics components.

Source: M&T / Globo Rural Read The Article

PSR Analysis: This is an opportunity for local and international players to start
supplying these companies as an alternative source. The time window is short for
development of alternative sources, but global companies may start risk mitigation
plans. Understanding the opportunities, volumes and component content will be
key at this moment.

Production of Cars in Peru Drops 54% in One Year

The combination of market decline by 31% and the increase of vehicle imports
are the main reasons for the drastic reduction in production. From 2010 to
2015, the local production has been above the imports, with significant exports
to neighbor countries as Colombia and Peru. From 2016 – 2018, imports grew
from 31,000 to 103,000 units, while the production grew from 29,000 to 42,000
between 2016 and 2017, after a significant market growth, but reduced from
42,000 to 18,000 in 2019 with the competition from imports.

Source: PSR / AEADE Source: M&T Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Currency policy changes and changes in automotive industry
regulations are the main reasons for the shift in the automotive industry of
Ecuador. These changes affect not only Ecuador, but also the ability to reach
neighbor countries with its products, opening space for other players, like
Brazilian and Chinese. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is PSR Director, Business Development, South America

2020-02-25

We Expect 2020 NA Overall OEM Production To Be Flat

This article initially appeared in the February 2020 issue of PowerTALK News.

SUMMARY.  The North American economy remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

Consumer confidence declined slightly in December, following a moderate increase in November.  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4 points higher than in September 2019. 

Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”

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Thailand Auto Industry Brakes Sharply

This article initially appeared in the February 2020 issue of PowerTALK News.

THAILAND–Vehicles produced in Thailand are exported to the world, including Asia, Oceania, the Middle East and Europe. However, the automobile industry is in trouble because of the double punch of the global economy slowing down due to the US-China trade friction and the spread of the new coronavirus.

Akihiro Komuro
Akihito Komuro

Exports, which account for half of Thailand’s automobile production, where Japanese and other automakers such as Toyota and Honda have production bases, have fallen, and vehicle production turned negative for the first time in five years in 2019. In addition, the spread of the new coronavirus is catching up. It is expected that the impact on Thailand’s automobile industry will be even greater if the shutdown of factories in China and production cutoffs are prolonged and parts procurement is delayed.

Source: NHK

PSR Analysis: From about September 2019, it has been reported that many Southeast Asian automobile industries, including Thailand, have begun to slow down, but this has been attributed to a slowdown in trade due to US-China trade friction.

Today, of course, there is the same problem, but the rapid spread of COVID-19 is a new problem. Many automotive industries around the world are supported by the supply of parts from China, and a slowdown in supply could severely impact car production. Especially in Southeast Asia such as Thailand and Indonesia.  PSR

Akihiro Komuro is a Research Analyst covering the Far East and Southeast Asia for Power Systems Research.

Opel Bets on Russia

This article initially appeared in the February 2020 issue of PowerTALK News.

Opel is back in Russia, and the company appears to be betting the Russian market can provide a significant opportunity for business diversification.

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

In 2019, company sales declined as the business was reorganized, and Opel cut its model portfolio.

According to reports, 96% of Opel sales are concentrated in Europe. This fact has determined a focus point for sales increase. In 2022, Opel expects to be in 20 new export markets. After 20 years of financial losses, the very first year within the Peugeot SA structure was quite profitable for Opel (plus 859 million Euro for 2018).

Meanwhile, the Russian PSA plant in Kaluga has begun final preparations for production of Zafira Life and Vivaro minivans.    

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PSR Analysis: It appears that Opel has decided to start with minivans in the Russian market, and it is targeting the LCV niche where the chances for success are better than in passenger cars. While individual consumer demand is declining for LCVs, the companies making the vehicles locally can receive State and municipal orders for vehicles.

Last year, the State placed big orders for ambulances and school buses, sharing the orders between the GAZ Group and other local OEMs. At the same time, new models of passenger cars produced abroad, like Opel Crossland X, did not post good sales in the Russian market. PSR

Maxim Sakov is a Market Consultant in Russia for Power Systems Research