-
Tesla Poised To Start the Engine…as Competitors Close In
Even though Tesla’s “Battery Day” was held Sept. 22, 2020, it didn’t produce the wildly exciting results that Elon Musk had promised would “blow your mind.”
Tyler Wiegert During its event, Tesla unveiled plans to develop a “million mile” battery that could last an electric car’s entire lifetime on the road. It also outlined plans to dramatically reduce the cost of its battery cells and packs to $100 per kilowatt-hour, at which point experts believe electric cars will become comparable in price to combustion engine vehicles.
Bill Gates-backed QuantumScape, the first US battery company to go public in a decade, announced that it has overcome two major hurdles to create an all-metal lithium battery, which, if true, would allow electric vehicles to go up to 50% further on a single charge. Those hurdles were metallic lithium’s propensity to explode when it comes into contact with liquid and its needle structure that has historically punctured plastic separators between electrodes and caused shorts.
-
Generac Capitalizes on Series of (Un)fortunate Circumstances
In last month’s issue of PowerTALK™ News, I wrote about how the pandemic was impacting some of the giants of the power generation industry, and Generac stood out as an OEM that had been well-positioned to capitalize on the disruptions in the marketplace.
Tyler Wiegert They were already dominant in home backup power, a household name, and a clear early thought for the many people who were suddenly working and learning from home and searching for a way to make sure they did not lose power. At the same as this enormous upheaval affected our lives, wildfires blazed across California and continue to ravage the state, and hurricanes devastated the Gulf Coast.
While other residential power suppliers ran into supply chain bottlenecks that kept their dealers from being adequately stocked for the surge in demand, Generac managed to keep inventory flowing, leading to profits that are incredible by the standard of what we expect in this time, and a 20.8% jump in their share price in August alone.
-
The Green Future Has Big Oil’s Backing
BP’s action might be a pivotal moment where the green revolution stops being something, we are all dragged into and starts being an opportunity for the most responsive and agile innovators to rebrand themselves and capture new markets.
Tyler Wiegert For many people, the moment when COVID-19 became real was when the NBA announced the cancellation of the rest of its season. I was sitting at the counter of the coffee shop in the lobby of my Las Vegas hotel at CON-EXPO. My colleagues and I had been talking for a couple days about the odds of catching the virus at the show, but we all had made the decision that we would be ok attending.
And then we saw that announcement. By the end of the day, we had all decided to go home as soon as possible, and the show had announced it was ending a day early. As a 26-year-old who just caught the tail end of the millennial generation, there haven’t been a lot of things in my memory where I can look back and say, in the moment, it felt like things were different now. I was too young to remember 9/11, and I wasn’t politically engaged enough to understand what the first African-American president meant historically. But this morning as I was catching up on the news and thinking about the subject of this article, I read that BP had made an announcement about a major environmental initiative, and as I read it, I had a feeling like at that coffee bar in Las Vegas.
-
COVID Creates Challenges and Opportunities in Power Gen
If you were hoping for COVID-19 to disappear from the news by the school year, it’s obviously not going to happen. With major companies like Google announcing they won’t be sending employees back to their offices until the summer of 2021 and COVID metrics climbing again in the South and West, we probably will be working on the impact of the pandemic well into next year.
Tyler Wiegert It could almost be considered a truism to say that COVID-19 has been bad for business. The 33% annualized decline in GDP in Q2 2020 would apparently confirm that, and even the most positive about the economy must concede that a 9.5% single-quarter contraction is painful, to say the least. With businesses closed and housing starts in June lagging 4% behind last year, even with the brief reprieve when states began to reopen, the power generation segment has been hit hard by the pandemic.
Cummins, a giant in the industry, announced at the end of July that its revenues for Q2 2020 had fallen 38% from Q2 2019. That increased to 48% when looking at North America alone. Engine sales were down 47%, and power generation revenues declined by 37%. While Cummins was able to achieve positive net income because of a quick ramp-up in production in China after the worst of the virus had passed there, it was less than half of net income from Q2 2019.
-
On-Highway Batteries Serve as Emergency Backup Power
Audi and the utility EnBW are pioneering an energy storage facility built on retired electric vehicle (EV) batteries. This partnership is being billed as the solution to a major problem in each industry.
Tyler Wiegert For automobile manufacturers, the question of how to recycle retired batteries has been pressing for some time. Utilities have been struggling with the perverse problem that excess generation from renewable sources has been slowing adoption, as surges from those sources can disrupt the stability of power grids.
EV batteries have a functional life of 3-10 years after they are retired from vehicle use, making them a ready tool for use by utilities.
Portland General Electric Company (PGE) also is seeking to create a more resilient grid for the utilization of renewable energy sources. They are launching a pilot program to incentivize the installation of home battery systems to act as a virtual power plant.
-
Daimler Pursues Fuel Cells on Multiple Fronts
In a statement released June 30, Daimler announced it will be investing “a very substantial sum” in achieving a CO2-neutral future for the transportation sector. Hydrogen fuel cell production facilities are currently in development, with an eye toward mass production of fuel cells and their component parts.
Tyler Wiegert Some of the hurdles Daimler is working to overcome are the needs for highly-filtered air and stable ambient temperature and humidity. The materials and components used in fuel cell production do not allow for an easy transfer in process from conventional engine manufacturing.
-
MotorIndia Sponsors Commercial Vehicle Webinar
MotorIndia Magazine, one of India’s leading publications devoted to commercial vehicles, recently held an important panel discussion on the state of the country’s CV industry.
Jinal Shah The live webinar panel discussion June 3, 2020, was moderated by Jinal Shah, Regional Director-South Asia, for Power Systems Research.
Shah began with a market prediction of a 45-50% drop in CV sales in 2020 over 2019 figures, necessarily taking the industry back by a decade in terms…
-
COVID-19 2020 North American Impact: Ag, -12%, Construction, -14%
HDMA-PSR COVID Webinar Presentation
COVID-19 continues to batter production of off-highway equipment as we continue to move through 2020. The effects of the virus on Agricultural and Construction equipment production in North America were analyzed in a June 17 webinar presented by the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA) and Power Systems Research (PSR). The webinar updated information presented in PSR’s webinar in April.
Jim Downey The PSR webinar team was Jim Downey, PSR vice president-global data products , and Yosyf Sherementa, PhD, PSR director-product management and customer experience.
PSR projects AG to be down 9.4% and CN to be down 11.3% when comparing global production for this year (2020) to last year (2019).
China and India which have the largest volumes for ag machinery are the lower side for production percentage drops this year. China which is also the largest producer of construction equipment is not expecting a decline this year.
Yosyf Sheremeta A slight recovery for Construction equipment is expected in 2021, but not until 2022 for Agricultural machinery. Ag sector recovery will ultimately depend on overall economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The construction segment will not return to pre-virus production volumes for another few years, at best. We’re looking out to 2024 or possibly 2025 to get back to 1.48 million units.
We don’t see a V-shaped type scenario on the horizon in North America, but rather recovery will look like something between a “U” and an “L.” Somewhat of a swoosh shape or upward sloping L. Economic activity will slowly return to a sense of normalcy as the curve of new COVID-19 cases flattens.
Government support and intervention will be needed, and stimulus will provide an economic backstop. We expect modest growth in 2021. Pent-up demand and continued economic stimulus should also help with rebound.
-
Samuel Libaire Wins Power Systems Research $2,500 Eagan Scholarship
Samuel Libaire, a senior at Eagan High School, Eagan, Minnesota, has received the 2020 Power Systems Research $2,500 academic scholarship.
He will use the scholarship to study Computer Science at Vanderbilt University.
“My favorite subject is computer science,” says Samuel. “It is one of the only subjects that can have multiple solutions to a single problem while also proving instantly that some don’t work. In many sciences, theories are never 100% true, but in computer science, a program either works perfectly or it simply doesn’t.”
-
Pandemic Disruptions Hinder Auto Battery Adoption
My other article in this month’s issue of PowerTALK News describes how home battery systems, even though they are not themselves viable products for most consumers, still benefit from a virtuous cycle of product improvement and investment because of the relative success of battery-powered vehicles and other battery-powered products.
Tyler Wiegert But the COVID-19 pandemic has not missed those drivers. Venture Beat magazine reports that investors are largely avoiding lithium this year, preferring to safeguard cash until the economy starts to improve. The delay in funding could have several knock-on effects.
One is consolidation in the industry. Ganfeng Lithium is picking up a lithium project from Lithium Americas, a smaller operation. Fewer, larger players in the market later on might have price consequences for lithium adoption after the economy improves and demand for those goods increases.
TPI
PSR Truck Production Index
Free quarterly global commercial vehicle production report.
Alternative Power Report
The latest EV and power source news including batteries and fuel cells with analysis by PSR experts.
PowerTALK News
Stay informed each month with insights from Power Systems Research’s analysts working around the world as they identify and comment on important news items in the company’s monthly newsletter.
Subscribe View Archive
OE Link™ Offers
Global Coverage
OE Link™ database provides OEM products, both On-Road and Off-Road, in 12 regions.
Current Reports
Download complimentary reports that show the type of information available from Power Systems Research.
PowerTALK News
Stay informed each month with insights from Power Systems Research analysts working around the world as they identify and comment on important news items in the company’s monthly newsletter.
Subscribe