RUSSIA REPORT: April 2020

Large Russian Automakers Resume Work After One Week Stop

Many automakers who suspended work March 30 in Russian, as ordered by the government to the reduce spread of the COVID-19 resumed work April 6. The firms including KAMAZ, AutoVAZ, GAZ Group, Mazda Sollers.

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

However, 98% of office personnel are working remotely. Started working YAMZ, Yaroslavl plant of diesel apparatus and some production lines of Likino bus plant. Procurement production of GAZ plant in Nizhny Novgorod is also working. Schedule of main production lines will be determined within a week depending on situation on suppliers’ plants.      Read The Article

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Brazil/South America Report

This report appeared in the March issue of PowerTALKNews

Coronavirus Jeopardizes Brazil AG Machine Production

Lack of components coming from China may be a problem because of work interruptions caused by the coronavirus. According to the Brazilian Machinery Builders´ Association (ABIMAQ), the risk of supply stoppages is high. The Chinese content of an Agricultural Machine produced in Brazil is estimated to be 10% to 15%, with higher concentration on electronics components.

Source: M&T / Globo Rural Read The Article

PSR Analysis: This is an opportunity for local and international players to start
supplying these companies as an alternative source. The time window is short for
development of alternative sources, but global companies may start risk mitigation
plans. Understanding the opportunities, volumes and component content will be
key at this moment.

Production of Cars in Peru Drops 54% in One Year

The combination of market decline by 31% and the increase of vehicle imports
are the main reasons for the drastic reduction in production. From 2010 to
2015, the local production has been above the imports, with significant exports
to neighbor countries as Colombia and Peru. From 2016 – 2018, imports grew
from 31,000 to 103,000 units, while the production grew from 29,000 to 42,000
between 2016 and 2017, after a significant market growth, but reduced from
42,000 to 18,000 in 2019 with the competition from imports.

Source: PSR / AEADE Source: M&T Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Currency policy changes and changes in automotive industry
regulations are the main reasons for the shift in the automotive industry of
Ecuador. These changes affect not only Ecuador, but also the ability to reach
neighbor countries with its products, opening space for other players, like
Brazilian and Chinese. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is PSR Director, Business Development, South America

SOUTHEAST ASIA REPORT: Southeast Asia Auto Sales Drop 80% in April

The Southeast Asian auto industry continues to suffer from the effects of the new coronavirus. New car sales in April were down 80% year-on-year due to restrictions on activity in each country. New car sales in the six major countries were down 82% in April from a year earlier to 51,063 units.

Akihiro Komuro
Akihito Komuro

The biggest declines were in Malaysia and the Philippines, where sales were down 99.7% and 99.5%. Both countries began restricting activity in March, with production and sales of cars almost completely halted in April. Indonesia, the largest market, was down 91%. Thailand sales slumped 65%, although car dealerships operated under a declared state of emergency.

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Alternative Power Report, April 2023

Engines powered by gasoline and diesel fuel are reaching a critical point in production compared to electric and hybrid vehicles, according to reports in the April issue of Alternative Power Report. 2026 could be a critical year. Read about this trend and related articles that address alternative power in this issue.

Alternative Power Report, April 2024

The April 2024 Alternative Power Report by Power Systems Research features several articles on batteries including one on sodium ion batteries as an alternative to Lithium Ion batteries, and another on the dropping cost of EV batteries. Hydrogen power sources show increasing promise, and there is an article on Chinese manufacturer CATL launching a battery pack with Yutong Bus Co to power commercial vehicles such as buses and trucks that has a 15-year warranty. PSR

North America Economy Faces Multiple Problems

Jim Downey
Jim Downey

SUMMARY. The United States economy is facing several serious problems that don’t have simple solutions and are not likely to be solved for several years, reaching out to the presidential elections in 2024.

Take your pick of problems: Inflation. Stock Market. Climate Changes. Interest Rates. Housing Prices. Gasoline Prices. Food Prices. Social Unrest. Political Conflicts. Worker shortages. Supply Chain Shortages. Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

The bottom line here is that consumers, investors, businesses, and governments are uncertain about what the future holds for the next several years, and this uncertainty makes it difficult to build multiple-year action plans, whether it’s for purchases, manufacturing, marketing, or investing.

Uncertainty makes people nervous, and Uncertainty is the name of the game in the U.S. for the foreseeable future.

However, we’re still optimistic about the U.S. economy and we see 2022 production growing by 11.6% but that activity is likely to fall to 2.7% next year and drop again to 1.5% in 2024.

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Strong Post-pandemic Growth Expected into 2022-23 for North America

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  After the GDP declined 3.5% last year, the worst performance in almost 75 years, the US economy is set for a strong comeback.  There are many reasons to be optimistic about the economy for the next few years, including strong readings of macro-economic factors combined with the economic cycle reset backed by government initiatives and policies.

Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation. 

During H1 2021, we witnessed a strong level of activities and a rebound for many industries.  As local governments eased lockdown restrictions, service-oriented industries gained traction and that translated to an overall increase of economic activities across many industries. 

We expect this level of rebound to continue and we now expect even stronger overall growth for 2021.  The US economy is on track to reach or even surpass the growth level of 1984 – the highest one since 1950s.  In the near term, consumer spending will help drive demand and support the strong growth trend.

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Near Term Recession Fears Recede in North America

SUMMARY.  The North American economy remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

Consumer confidence declined slightly in December, following a moderate increase in November.  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4 points higher than in September 2019. 

Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”

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