“COVID-19 cases started spreading in the rural areas with the beginning of the month of May, and agriculture activity in the month of May is bare minimal, particularly land-based activities,” says Niti Aayog Member (Agriculture) Ramesh Chand.
PSR Analysis: The second wave of COVID-19 started spreading in the rural areas in May 2021, but agriculture activities in May are minimal, and are mainly land-based activities. Agri activities peak in March or the middle of April, after which it drops significantly and again peaks with the arrival of monsoon.
COVID cases surged from the second week of April until the third week of May. So, even if there is less availability of labor in May till mid-June, it won’t hamper the agri activities. Reverse migration will likely follow the same trend followed last year. The labor force is moving to rural areas as there has been a large increase in COVID-19 cases in urban areas, and these laborers are willing to work in the agriculture sector for livelihood. Hence, the large segment of rural income, remains intact and rural demand on that count will not be affected.
Post-first-wave, agriculture activities propelled the overall economy and drove the automotive sector. Historically it is evident that good Agri income leads to the healthy production of two-wheelers. Furthermore, in the past few years, we have seen an increased penetration of passenger vehicles in rural areas. So the segment of the on-road vehicle is likely to benefit to some extent. PSR
Aditya Kondejkar is Research Analyst–South Asia Operations for Power Systems Research
