Union Budget Push To Expand Highways and EVs

INDIA REPORT 
Aditya Kondejkar

The 2022-2023 Budget is focused on building long-term strength using investment as the growth lever while maintaining policy stability and inclusivity. The 35% increased capex outlay, major infrastructure projects like 25,000 km road construction, 100 Cargo terminals, Project GatiShakti, 5G network, optic fiber cable laying and the recent PLI schemes are major positives.

Source: Auto Guide India    Read The Article

 “The blueprint of a digitally enabled, Aatmanirbhar Bharat, coupled with measures that will drive sustainable yet inclusive growth at a rapid pace for the next twenty-five years. These are the bedrock of the proposals announced in the Union Budget 2022-23, as we redefine our economy in a post-pandemic world. Setting the direction for creation of urban fossil fuel free zones, policy for battery swapping and energy as service and incentives for creating a vibrant start-up eco system, India could soon emerge as a fore-runner of green mobility solutions for the world” – Sunjay J Kapur, President ACMA (Automobile component manufacturers association of India)

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Hon Hai Delivers First EV Bus To Kaohsiung City in Taiwan

TAIWAN REPORT

On March 3, Hon Hai Precision Industry delivered its first EV, the Model T commercial bus, to a bus route operator based in Kaohsiung City in southern Taiwan. The company aims to deliver 30 buses by the end of this year to expand its EV business, which is a new entry into the market, and the key to its future growth will be the extent to which it can break away from its business model that relies on contracted production of iPhones.

The “Model T” was delivered to Kaohsiung Bus Company. The vehicle was developed by Hung Hua Advanced Technology, a new company jointly established with Yulon Motor Manufacturing (Yulon), a major Taiwanese car manufacturer. Everything about the Model T, from concept to design and manufacturing, was done in Taiwan.

More than 65% of the parts procured were supplied by members of MIH, a group of more than 1,000 cooperating manufacturers recruited by Hon Hai when it entered the EV market, as well as by Taiwanese manufacturers. The vehicle will begin operating on actual bus routes on March 16, the company said.

Hon Hai also plans to introduce EVs for personal use in the future. In addition to the Model C SUV, which will be the first EV for individuals, the company plans to introduce the Model E, a high-end sedan. The company has already announced a plan to achieve sales of 1 trillion Taiwan dollars (over 4 trillion yen) in five years.

Source: The Nikkei

PSR Analysis: Hon Hai moves very fast. Less than two years after announcing its entry into the EV business, Hon Hai delivered one of the company’s first three EV prototypes in October 2021.

The alliance they founded, MIH, has been in existence for more than a year since October 2020, and more than 2,000 companies from Japan and other countries have joined the development coalition. An alliance of unprecedented scale is about to bring about a major innovation in the automotive industry.

MIH (Mobility in Harmony) is an open EV ecosystem that promotes new collaborations in the mobility industry. MIH brings together strategic partners in the EV field, where the development and manufacturing processes are different from those of conventional vehicles, and promotes the creation of next-generation EVs, autonomous driving, and mobility service applications by opening up advanced hardware and software technologies.

Through the realization of reference designs and standardization of EV technologies, many alliance members intend to jointly create an open EV platform that will bring innovation to the industry by shortening development cycles and lowering barriers to entry.

The number of overseas companies outside of China and Taiwan participating in the MIH continues to increase. In addition to South Korea’s Kia and India’s Mahindra, Tier 1 automakers Continental of Germany and ZF are also participating.

Major players include Microsoft, Arm, LG Electronics, ON Semiconductor, Oracle, Kaspersky Lab, Samsung Electronics, Siemens, TomTom, and Dell Technologies.

At the time of MIH’s inception, the impression was that Taiwanese and Chinese companies accounted for more than 95% of its members, but now, one after another, a diverse group of members have gathered from around the world, greatly enhancing its development capabilities.

The unprecedented scale of the MIH is symbolic of the global interest in next-generation mobility, such as EVs and autonomous driving.

It is easy to imagine that this power of MIH has been a major driving force in the development of the EV buses this time around. All eyes are now focused on the future actions of this huge alliance on an unprecedented scale. PSR

Navistar Introduces S13 Engine Platform

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Navistar says it plans to introduce the Navistar 12.7 liter S13 engine platform in the fourth quarter of 2023.  The S13 engine is based upon the Scania DC13 engine and will supersede the current 12.4 liter A26 engine platform starting next year.  The initial engine installations will be standard on the LT and RH truck platforms and will be introduced to the HV and HX platforms in 2024.  The order books are expected to open in October.

The S13 engine will be paired with the new International T14 automated manual transmission.  The T14 is a 14 speed AMT which is the first transmission offered by the company.

The current A26 engine platform is based upon the MAN D26 engine platform and will be superseded by the S13 engine over the next few years.  Navistar will continue to source the Cummins engine lineup for the foreseeable future.  According to Navistar, this will be the last engine upgrade for the company as they plan to focus on zero-emission vehicles.  Navistar says that half of all its new vehicles sold by 2030 will be zero-emission; it expects to reach 100% of sales in 2040. PSR

Source: International S13

Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

New Vehicle Sales Increase 33% in September

SOUTHEAST ASIA: 6 MAJOR COUNTRIES REPORT

New vehicle sales in the six major Southeast Asian countries totaled 317,765 units in September, up 33% from the same month last year. The figures were compiled from new vehicle sales statistics released by automobile industry associations and other organizations in each country. This is the 12th consecutive month that sales have exceeded those of the same month last year; the economic recovery from COVID-19 continues, with sales up 8% compared to September 2019, even before the spread of the infection.

Indonesia, the largest new vehicle market in the region, saw a 19% y/y increase to 99,986 units. This was the highest single-month sales volume in 2022. The tax exemption for some models ended at the end of September, and there appears to have been a rush demand for new vehicles.

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Cheering Festive Season for Auto Industry

INDIA REPORT

This year’s festive season fired up vehicle registrations but failed to match 2019 sales numbers. Vehicle sales, which peak during the festive season in India, account for about 40% of annual volume. Sales in the just-concluded season this year were better than in the past two COVID years but were far below the sales level of 2019.

“Auto Retail for October 2022 saw an overall growth of 48%,” said Manish Raj Singhania, president of FADA. With most of the month under the festive period, the sentiments were extremely positive across all categories of dealership outlets.”

Source: Economic Times     Read The Article

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Randon Acquires US Trailer Maker Hercules

Randon, an Brazil-based OEM, has agreed to invest $40 million to acquire the US-based trailer manufacturer Hercules. Randon’s purchase agreement for Hercules is expected to be finalized within 120 days. Randon Implementos is the largest semi-trailer manufacturer in Latin America. The company maintains a manufacturing park in Argentina and works with partners to assemble semi-trailers at several points in Central America and Africa. It is the main Brazilian exporter in the segment, with a historical market share of 60% in exports.

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Alternative Power Report, December 2022

Read the expanded December 20222 Alternative Power Report produced by PSR’s Guy Youngs and other analysts at Power Systems Research. This month’s report includes articles on increased battery production in the US., Tesla’s plans for a recycling plant in Texas, increased merger activity in the EV Light/Medium commercial vehicle segment and new power sources being developed for cargo ships.

Q2 2023 Economic Update Is Mostly Positive

GLOBAL REPORT
Guy Youngs
Guy Youngs

SUMMARY. There are several factors that could contribute to modest growth in the second half of this year as we await final numbers for the quarter. This should lead to total production globally growing at +2.6% in 2023 (vs 2022). Given this 2023 growth, the outlook for the years into 2028 remains positive.

Apart from Russia and Ukraine, the main country to show a decline is South Korea, while Japan is barely positive. However, the segment picture shows some differences.

  • Fuel prices have eased recently, but they remain a serious concern.
  • Supply chains remain constrained.
  • The war in Ukraine shows no sign of a speedy conclusion, despite recent successes by Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian exports of wheat, other grains and fertilizer continue but are still low compared to pre-war levels.
  • Inflation continues to be a concern and central banks are raising their interest rates. This will pose a risk to economic growth in all regions. Inflation and price increases are putting OEMs in a tricky situation.
  • Risk of recession appears in several countries including the USA and Germany.
  • Covid is still lingering with global deaths now at over 6.9 million, but the death rate has slowed considerably.
  • Latent demand for machinery keeps bursting out into the open.
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U.S. Economic Downturn this Year or Next?

Jim Downey

SUMMARY. As we are halfway through 2023, there is more uncertainty with the economy than earlier in the year. The general consensus is there will be a recession coming soon in the United States, and now it is just a matter of whether this will happen later in 2023 or the first of part of 2024.

The latter may be more assumed recently. The stock market has not fallen, and the US economy has not entered a recession this year, 2023. Some of the factors that have prevented this are market investors being enthusiastic over AI (Artificial Intelligence) potential, the Federal Reserve’s pause in interest rate increases, and the slowdown of inflation. So seemingly the pause button has been hit on recession scenarios.

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Global Economy Seeing Modest Growth with Positive Outlook

GLOBAL REPORT
Jim Downey

SUMMARY. Many factors are pointing to modest growth in Q3 2023. This should lead to total production globally growing at +2.4% in 2023 vs 2022 (it was 2.6% in Q2 2023), and the outlook for the next few years remains positive with growth accelerating from 2025.  Apart from Russia and Ukraine, the main countries to show a decline are South Korea, Slovakia, Netherlands. However, the segment picture shows some differences.

Several drivers are influencing the global economic picture.

  • Fuel prices eased earlier this year, recently they have grown slightly and are no longer showing signs of easing. This remains a serious issue.
  • Supply chains remain constrained and show no signs of improving.
  • The war in Ukraine shows no sign of a speedy conclusion, despite recent successes by Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian exports of wheat, other grains and fertilizer have declined massively following Russia’s ending on the Grain Deal. Alternative routes (overland, and via the Danube) simply don’t have the necessary capacity.
  • Inflation is easing, but it continues to be a major concern for central banks as they consider raising their interest rates. This will pose a risk to economic growth in all regions. Inflation and price increases are putting OEMs in a difficult situation.
  • Risk of recession continues in the background for several countries, notably China, USA and Germany, and this could drag other countries into recession.
  • Covid is still lingering with global deaths now at over 6.9 million, and a new variant has the medical world concerned.
  • Latent demand for machinery keeps building, which is a positive sign.
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