Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Loses 37%

Jim Downey
Jim Downey
Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

ST. PAUL, MN — The Q4 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 116 to 120, or 3.4%, for the three-month period ended December 31,2021, from Q3 2021. The year-over-year (Q4 2020 to Q4 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 190 to 120, or -37%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index: We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021. China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%.

All Regions: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat. Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023. The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory.

North America: While supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to finish 2021 15.8% higher than 2020. The forecasted production growth rate is expected to continue to show improvement through 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease and truck capacity in the market begins to align with demand. The disruption in the supply chain and on-going issues with COVID will continue to impact the market in 2022.    PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President-Global Data Products and Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

Kamaz Introduces First Mining Truck

KAMAZ says it has developed and built KAMAZ 65805 – first truck in its new mining truck portfolio. The product line will consist of dump trucks with wheel formula 8*4 and 10*6 and cargo capacity from 45 to 70 tons. The dimensions of the new truck will allow driving on regular automobile roads.

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The new KAMAZ is powered by a 12-liter inline KAMAZ R-6 engine of 500 hp, and hydromechanical transmission with retarder.

The truck is introduced as “Autonomous ready,” and can be converted to a driverless vehicle by installing sensors and a decision-making chip.

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KAMAZ Introduces Hercules Articulated Truck

The first pictures of the new KAMAZ articulated mining truck have been published, showing a configuration of the truck with a 6×6 chassis. It will compete with the Caterpillar 740 and Volvo A40F.

The articulated frame will increase maneuverability and off-road characteristics of the truck. Hercules will be equipped with a hybrid powertrain. The new truck will use a KAMAZ R6 engine of 450 hp, and the nominal output of every electric motor will be 517 hp. The load capacity of Hercules is 40 tons, and the full weight is 75 tons. A light option with 4×4 format and 25-ton capacity are also in the plans.

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Brazil Moves Forward on Truck Fleet Renewal Program

BRAZIL/SOUTH AMERICA REPORT  

In December 2022, the Brazilian Government published regulations for the Fleet Renewal Program authorized by the law that was published in H1 2022. Under this regulation, truck owners may receive the old truck market value from companies in the Oil and Gas exploration chain, provided that they prove the truck was taken out of circulation, disassembly and recycled. The program is voluntary, both for owners selling the old truck and for O&G companies designating resources for the program in exchange for a reduction of duties on O&G exploration contracts.

Source: M&T     Read The Article

PSR Analysis. Preliminary analysis suggests the program won’t be very effective, since significant recycling and paperwork efforts are required to sell the old truck at market prices. It seems this is a regulation published to show environmental efforts, but one that will have limited effectiveness. No impact is seen in the Truck Market now unless market conditions change drastically. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South America for Power Systems Research

January Brazil Truck Production Drops 72%

Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

Truck production in Brazil in January was 4,049 units vs. 14,614 units in December per  Anfavea (the association that represents the automakers installed in the Brazil) monthly

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PSR Analysis: This decline was expected due to the introduction of PROCONVE P8, the regulation in line with Euro VI, that reduces the toxic gas emission limits and therefore increases the complexity and the price of new trucks.

Under that regulation, OEMs have the right to sell Trucks at PROCONVE P7 (Euro V) produced in 2022 until March 31, 2023. This caused a pre-production and inventory increase to sell trucks with lower price at the beginning of 2023.

The Anfavea forecast points to a reduction in MHV production from 192,000 to 154,000, but their calculation on Sales, Exports and Stock does not match. Subscribers of Power Systems Research data and intelligence can see a well-balanced forecast, considering different stock level by subsegment of GVW.    PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development-South America, for Power Systems Research

Cummins Accelera Delivers Hydrogen Fuel Cell Truck

CHINA REPORT
Jack Hao
Jack Hao

Accelera and Shaanxi Auto’s Dechuang Future have jointly developed a 31-ton Hydrogen fuel battery residue vehicle. Sixty Cummins Accelera Hydrogen fuel cell driven muck trucks were delivered and put into operation in Shanghai.

It is reported that this vehicle is matched with Cummins 125kW Hydrogen fuel battery engine system and 127kWh Lithium iron phosphate power battery, and uses the 410kW drive motor and AMT automatic transmission with ultra-low system energy consumption independently developed by Dechuang in the future to form a “new energy power chain,” so that the vehicle’s power performance indicators such as maximum speed, hill starting ability, climbing ability, loading capacity, etc. are higher than the industry average.

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Daimler’s RIZON Electric Truck Feels like Driving a Car

Daimler recently launched a class 4-5 medium-duty electric truck brand, RIZON, and Electrek got a chance to kick the tires and drive one around. They were impressed at how well it drives (for an 18k GVWR vehicle) and how comfortable it feels like it would be on long shifts.

Rizon is a new brand from Daimler Trucks focusing entirely on zero-emissions in the class 4-5 space. Trucks of this size don’t require commercial driver’s licenses, and you’re more likely to see them around your neighborhood, doing local delivery tasks, equipment rentals, moving businesses, and the like. So, it’s nice to have clean, quiet operation instead of noisy and stinky diesel vehicles.

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