St. Paul, MN— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped from 124 to 112, or 9.7%, for the three-month period ended Sept. 30, 2018, from Q2 2018. The year-over-year (Q3 2017 to Q3 2018) gain for the PSR-TPI was, 110 to 112, or 1.8%.
OEM Off-Highway recently interviewed Power Systems’ Chris Fisher for their OEM Industry Update podcast. Here we present it with their permission
This week on OEM Industry Update we speak with Chris Fisher, Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst, Power Systems Research, about the current state of the North American commercial vehicle market. He says truck demand continues to be strong and is expected to remain so through 2022 and possibly even into 2023. Inventory stocking and solid growth in single family housing are among the factors positively impacting the market.
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:13 Sarah Jensen:
Welcome to OEM Industry Update; a weekly podcast examining the latest news and technology trends impacting product development teams and the heavy-duty on and off highway equipment Industries. I’m Sarah Jensen, editor of OEM Off Highway and in this week’s episode I’ll be speaking with Chris Fisher, Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research, about the current state of the North American commercial vehicle market. Let’s take a listen now:
During the past few years there has been plenty of talk about battery electric power replacing diesel-powered internal combustion engines in commercial trucks. At some point this might be true for short and regional haul freight carriers, but what about the long-haul heavy truck segment?
Currently, the lack of a sufficient charging infrastructure, range anxiety and the extreme weights associated with the batteries are significant deterrents to mass adoption of long-haul battery electric trucks. However, hydrogen fuel cell trucks for long-haul applications appear to be a viable option in this segment. Even though fuel cell trucks currently have a greater range and lighter weight than battery electric trucks, they have the same problem as electric trucks: a lack of refueling infrastructure.
St. Paul, MN (July 13, 2022)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 104 to 116, or11.5%, for the three-month period ended June 30, 2022, from Q1 2022. The year-over-year (Q2 2021 to the Q2 2022) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 130 to 116, or -10.8%.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
Global Index. Global medium and heavy vehicle production is expected to decline by 10% this year primarily due to a drop in demand in China and Eastern Europe. However, a slowing global economy will also place pressure on demand moving forward.
All Regions. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production will be mixed this year due to a variety of issues. In China, truck and bus overcapacity will hinder demand while the Russian-Ukraine war will significantly impact demand and production in Eastern Europe. Global supply chains will remain a problem through at least the end of this year for all regions. There is critical concern about major slowdowns in the North American and European economies as a direct result of higher fuel prices and inflation which does not appear to be going away anytime soon.
The heavy truck industry fell in the first half of 2022 by more than 63% from the previous year. According to the latest statistics from the China Automobile Association, for January to June this year, the overall sales volume of the domestic heavy truck market was about 380,000 units, a decrease of 63.6% compared with the same period last year.
In June, the sales volume of China’s heavy truck industry was only 55,000 units, a year-over-year decrease of 65%. The main reasons for the decline in heavy truck sales this year are the upgrading of emission standard from “China V” to “China VI” last year, which caused a pre-buy in the market, and the impact of the epidemic this year, which depressed the logistics and transportation market, further curbing demand for new trucks.
The heavy truck industry is a cyclical industry, and its development cycle fluctuates due to changes in environmental protection policies and the overall economy. Following a 14 month decline in sales, the primary concern in the heavy truck industry is this: When will there be a turnaround?
St. Paul, MN (January 25, 2022)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 116 to 120, or 3.4%, for the three-month period ended December 31, 2021, from Q3 2021. The year-over-year (Q4 2020 to Q4 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 190 to 120, or -37%.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
Global Index: We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021. China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%.
All Regions: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat. Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023. The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory.
We have heard during the past few years that battery electric commercial trucks will ultimately replace the diesel-powered internal combustion engine for commercial trucks. At some point in the future this might be true for short and regional haul freight carriers, but what about the long-haul heavy truck segment?
Currently, the lack of charging infrastructure, range anxiety and the extreme weights associated with the batteries will be a significant deterrent to mass adoption of long-haul battery electric trucks.
The outlook for global truck production in the class 4-8 looks very promising for 2018 as it continues a strong growth pattern established in 2017. Even previously struggling countries such as Russia, Brazil and Turkey saw very positive signs in 2017 and are looking for continued growth this year. North America and Europe also are expected to have a good year in 2018.
John Krzesicki talks with Thomas Bourgeois from Pace Energy and Climate Center in his continuing series “Living on the Edge”. In today’s episode John discusses powering greenhouses and local food production.
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 John Krzesicki
Hello, my name is John Krzesicki.
Today it’s my pleasure to host the Power Systems “Living on the Edge” series. The show revealed conversations with industry experts and their insight into the future with intelligent technology. With over 30 years of experience supporting the manufacturing industry, I’ve seen an unbelievable change in technology.
SUMMARY: In this article we provide a global overview on a regional basis of the medium and heavy commercial vehicle market (GVWR > 6 MT’s) along with current trends and OEM happenings in North America.
NORTH AMERICA. MHCV production in North America is expected to decline by 35% in 2020 compared to 2019. However, orders for class 8 trucks improved significantly in Q4 2020 as large fleets placed their orders for a 2021 build. This appears to signal an improvement in demand for 2021 as the market aligns itself with the expected freight level moving forward. The consumer segment was strong during the last half of the year and the industrial segment is now expected to improve, as well.
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