Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Loses 37%

Jim Downey
Jim Downey
Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

ST. PAUL, MN — The Q4 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 116 to 120, or 3.4%, for the three-month period ended December 31,2021, from Q3 2021. The year-over-year (Q4 2020 to Q4 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 190 to 120, or -37%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index: We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021. China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%.

All Regions: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat. Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023. The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory.

North America: While supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to finish 2021 15.8% higher than 2020. The forecasted production growth rate is expected to continue to show improvement through 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease and truck capacity in the market begins to align with demand. The disruption in the supply chain and on-going issues with COVID will continue to impact the market in 2022.    PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President-Global Data Products and Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

Q4 2022 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) gains 3.7%

St. Paul, MN (Janaury 23, 2023)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 101 to 105, or 3.7%, for the three-month period ended Dec. 31, 2022, from Q3 2022. The year-over-year (Q4 2021 through Q4 2022) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 122 to 105, or -13.2%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

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Power Systems Research Truck Production Index drops 13.7%

Global Truck Production REPORT

St. Paul, MN (October 24, 2022)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped from 110 to 101, or 8.2%, for the three-month period ended September 30, 2022, from Q2 2022. The year-over-year (Q3 2021 to Q3 2022) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 117 to 101, or 13.7%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production will be mixed this year due to a variety of issues.  In China, truck overcapacity continues to hinder demand while the Russian-Ukraine war is significantly impacting demand and production in Eastern Europe.  The global supply chain will remain a problem through at least the end of this year for all regions.  There is serious concern about a major slowdown in the North American and European economies as a direct result of higher fuel and energy prices and overall inflation which doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon.

Global Index. Global medium and heavy vehicle production is expected to decline by 13% this year primarily due to a significant drop in heavy truck demand in China.  A slowing global economy along with continued supply chain disruptions will continue to place pressure on demand moving forward.

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Q1 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Falls 42.5%

St. Paul, MN (April 13, 2021)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped 42.5% for the three-month period ended March 31, 2021, declining from 186 to 107, from the fourth quarter of 2020. The year-over-year (Q1 2020 to Q1 2021) improvement for the PSR-TPI was 15%, in which it climbed from 93 to 107.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index. While the decline in commercial vehicle demand in China will lower global vehicle demand this year, improved demand is expected in all other regions.

All Regions. Except for China, demand for medium and heavy commercial vehicles has bottomed out and is expected to increase this year and into 2022 as the various economies improve and Coronavirus vaccinations increase.  The market will also experience periodic supply chain disruptions primarily due to the impact from the Coronavirus.

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Q2 2021 Truck Production Report

Chris Fisher, Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research, discusses the Q2 2021 global production facts and related forecasts for medium and heavy trucks, as reported in the quarterly PSR Truck Production Index.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Delmont

From Power Systems Research, I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.

Today we’ll discuss global truck production with Chris Fisher. Chris is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research.

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Most Regions Will Post 20%+ Growth in Truck Production

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Editor’s Note: This is an updated report from the Q2 2021 Truck Production Index report produced by Chris Fisher and Jim Downey, Vice President-Global Data Products, in July 2021.

Question: What is the global truck production picture? What is the outlook?

PSR Opinion: Overall, medium and heavy truck demand will finish the year on a strong note, and continued strength is expected into 2022.  On-going supply chain disruptions will continue to impact production throughout the rest of the year and likely into 2022.

Question: What kind of global production volume do you expect for this year?

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Q1 2020 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) falls 31.1%

PSR TPI Q1 2020

ST. PAUL, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) decreased from 122 to 84, or 31.1%, for the three-month period ended March 31, 2020, from Q4 2019. The year-over-year (Q1 2019 to Q1 2020) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 116 to 84, or 27.6%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions: Prior to the spread of the Coronavirus, most regions were experiencing a slowdown in commercial truck demand. Depending on the duration of the virus, several countries are expected to slip into recession or a significant economic slowdown as a result.

Global Index: The possibility of a global recession now exists but it is uncertain how severe this may be. Some regions will fair better than others.

North America: The introduction of the Coronavirus along with an overcapacity of heavy trucks will lead to significantly lower demand in 2020. Prior to the Coronavirus outbreak, concerns about the Chinese tariffs and an overall slowdown in global economic growth were causing some headwinds for truck demand. PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President – Global Data Products at Power Systems Research

Chris Fisher is the Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

Q3 2021 Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Falls 10.7%

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St. Paul, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped from 131 to 117, or 10.7%, for the three-month period ended Sept. 30, 2021, from Q2 2021. The year-over-year (Q3 2020 to Q3 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was 141 to 117, or 17%.

Except for China, all regions are expected to experience solid commercial vehicle demand growth this year and into 2022.  Chinese heavy truck demand is expected to decline this year primarily due to the implementation of the China VI emission regulations that adds cost to the vehicles but no significant improvement in fuel economy.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research. PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President-Global Data Products, and Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research.

Q1 2024 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) falls 4.5%

St. Paul, MN (April 15, 2024)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) decreased from 116 to 111, or 4.5%, for the three-month period ending March 31, 2024, from Q4 2023. The year-over-year (Q1 2023 – Q1 2024) PSR-TPI was flat at 111. There was no change.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. In 2024, Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in Europe, South Asia and North America is expected to decline modestly while production in China, South America, Japan, and Korea is expected to improve over last year.

Global Index. Globally, medium, and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 1.5% this year over 2023. Moving into 2024, much of the focus on demand will be centered around slowing global economic conditions that will impact overall freight demand. PSR

Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research and Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research