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PSR Power Systems Research India Private Limited (PSR India), is the India office of Power Systems Research (PSR). Our experienced analysts, including our team in India, work with OEMs, engine and component manufacturers, dealers, fleet managers and industry experts to compile model-level data that is considered the leading source of global information on engines, drivetrains and powered vehicles and equipment.
A key portion of Maruti Suzuki’s mid-term goal to achieve 50% overall PV (passenger vehicle) market share by becoming the number one SUV seller in the country. This is important for Maruti Suzuki because even though the automaker’s market share in the non-SUV segments is more than 65%, its SUV share was only 10.5% in 2022.
The company is planning to invest Rs 18,000 crore for the Kharkhoda facility in Haryana. This will increase the capacity by one million units. Further, by the end of the decade, Maruti Suzuki plans to invest over 45,000 crore to quadruple production capacity to four million vehicles in order to meet domestic consumer demand and increase exports from India.
Electric vehicles (EVs) witnessed strong growth in the Indian market in 2022, with a three-fold increase in sales as compared to the year before. Official data shows that Indians have bought 2,780,000 EVs since January 2023 at an average of more than 90,000 EVs per month. Significantly, the demand for EVs is not limited to metro cities such as Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru, but is increasing in Tier-2 and Tier-3 markets as well.
PSR Analysis: While the growth of EVs has been primarily focused on urban areas of India, we are seeing a significantly improved adoption of EVs in rural parts of the country. The statistics from Vahan, the national vehicle registry, reveal that sales of electric cars and 3ws from the contribution of the top 10 districts in India has dropped significantly from 55%-60% in fiscal 2021 to 25%-30% in fiscal 2022. In the 2Ws segment, the percentage has dropped from 40%-45% to 15%-20%. The noticeable gaps here are being filled up by smaller towns and rural India.
With the increasing penetration of the Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) network across India, many cities may transition from conventional diesel-powered vehicles to CNG for the last mile.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) could be a favorable option for heavy and long hauls due to its higher energy density and hence a lower payload penalty and potential range, a lower carbon footprint/noise levels and its cryogenic temperatures which makes it a theft-proof fuel option.
At the same time, the use of HPDI (High-Pressure Direct Injection), a system that enables heavy–duty trucks to operate on natural gas with diesel- like performance would also aid in the switch to LNG.
The agreement covers the acquisition of land and buildings and certain machinery and manufacturing equipment at the General Motors India, Talegaon plant. The proposed acquisition is subject to the signing of a definitive asset purchase agreement, other certain conditions and receipt of approvals from government authorities and stakeholders.
PSR Analysis. Hyundai is expected to expand its annual production capacity in India to some 900,000 units–760,000 units in its two existing plants and 130,000 units in the GM plant. Combined with production volume of its smaller Kia’s two plants in India, the total production capacity of Hyundai Motor Group could surpass 1 million units per year.
As part of its 2023 Budget, the government has reiterated its focus on capital expenditures, the vehicle scrappage policy, and a reduction in customs duty for electric vehicle components that is designed to stimulate new vehicle sales. A reduction in customs duties and a plan to replace older, polluting vehicles will boost the adoption of green mobility.
“The increase in capex on infrastructure and the emphasis on green growth will help the mobility sector,” said Sudarshan Venu, MD, TVS Motor Company. “This budget gives something to everyone, from rural India and start-up India, to middle-class India and digital India. It is about inclusive growth and building on the recovery we are seeing after the pandemic. It strikes a fine balance between growth and fiscal prudence.”
The electric vehicle market in India is mostly dominated by lithium-ion battery technology, which powers two-, three- and four-wheeler vehicles. But this situation comes with its own set of challenges.
For instance, each battery chemistry has a different energy density, peak power output and charging time. Hence, the industry is working on alternative green solutions, and the government of India is aggressively working on hydrogen as a fuel option.
In terms of refueling time, hydrogen has a definitive advantage over batteries. It takes just a couple of minutes for a hydrogen vehicle to be refueled, irrespective of size, compared to the hours it takes to recharge an electric vehicle.
The union cabinet approved US$ 2.4 trillion (Rs 19,744 cr) for National Green Hydrogen Mission. The mission has four components aimed at enhancing domestic production of green hydrogen and promoting the manufacturing of electrolysers — a key constituent for making green hydrogen. The initial target is to produce 5 million tons of green hydrogen annually.
Along with the government, other industry stakeholders are taking significant steps to develop hydrogen fuel. Ashok Leyland (one of the largest CV makers) is working with Reliance industries on the development and supply chain of hydrogen-powered engines.
Ashok Leyland plans to install fuel-cell engines in an existing fleet of 45,000 trucks that RIL has hired to transport refined products and other marketing goods as a first stage in the strategy. Also, Adani (diversified business portfolio) and TotalEnergies (French energy and petroleum company) have entered into a partnership to jointly create the world’s largest green hydrogen ecosystem.
The potential of the country towards the production of hydrogen is attractive to many companies. European aircraft manufacturer Airbus is looking to source green hydrogen from India as well as Australia and Latin America.
“India is an amazing location with huge potential for the production of (green) hydrogen at a very exciting cost,” says Glenn Llewellyn, VP Zero-Emission Aircraft at Airbus.
In the 16th edition of the motor show Auto Expo Toyota, MG motors, Tata motors, Hyundai, and VECV, showcased their hydrogen-powered vehicles across several segments. It’s evident that OEMs are seriously exploring the option of Hydrogen powered vehicles. PSR
Aditya Kondejkar is Research Analyst – South Asia Operationsfor Power Systems Research
A favorable mix of factors is propelling demand for commercial vehicles to their best-ever pre-covid-19 volumes in India. Even though the CV segment has not reached its 2018 peak, it is expected to grow by double digits in the current fiscal year.
This growth is based on healthy demand and a relatively low base last year. While the sales are in green for all the major OEMs, market leader Tata Motors has reported year-over-year drop of 3%.
This year’s festive season fired up vehicle registrations but failed to match 2019 sales numbers. Vehicle sales, which peak during the festive season in India, account for about 40% of annual volume. Sales in the just-concluded season this year were better than in the past two COVID years but were far below the sales level of 2019.
“Auto Retail for October 2022 saw an overall growth of 48%,” said Manish Raj Singhania, president of FADA. With most of the month under the festive period, the sentiments were extremely positive across all categories of dealership outlets.”
Toyota has launched the Corolla Altis, India’s first flex-fuel engine. This car will be able to run on petrol or ethanol as well as electric power. It is part of a pilot project developing Flexi-Fuel Strong Hybrid Electric Vehicles in India.
Because of the great diversity in India’s consumer population, especially its per-capita income disparity, and multiple applications of vehicles, India might not use one technology but might use a combination of technologies involving various fuel types.
The Indian market can’t simply shift from petrol/ diesel engines to EVs over the next few years. Hence, many OEMs are working on CNG/ hydrogen/ hybrid vehicles. Toyota has launched this new vehicle for the Indian market as part of these efforts.
Adequate rainfall across the country along with the start of the long festive season will keep the demand for automobiles positive and help keep the momentum going in this segment. Additionally, normal monsoons in most parts of the country resulting in a decent agricultural harvest kept demand positive. So, automakers are focusing on building up inventory in anticipation of higher demand
The Indian economy is poised to shrug off the modest tapering of growth in Q1 2022, and aggregate demand is firm and set to expand as the festival season sets in. Hatchback cars and affordable, non-electric motorcycles and scooters are set to register bumper sales in the coming months as India gets ready to celebrate its first ‘normal’ festive season after a gap of two years. Above-normal rains, positive consumer sentiment and a generally optimistic mood are also expected to boost sales of these entry-level vehicles.
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