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A Drop of Up to 10% on the Horizon
EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher AutoData. The article includes substantial information from Priscila Von Zuben Spadine, Data and Forecast Manager at Power Systems Research.
By Natasha Werneck
AutoDataHigh interest rates, weak demand, and the smaller impact of the Caminho da Escola program are dragging down the pace of Brazil’s bus industry
Priscila Von Zuben Spadine After posting moderate growth in 2025, although below initial expectations, the Brazilian bus market entered 2026 in contraction, recording a pronounced decline in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. Data presented by Anfavea, the association representing chassis manufacturers, show that, despite a punctual rebound in March, the performance of the last three months reinforces a slowdown scenario.
Registrations rebounded and totaled nearly 2,000 units in March, up 50% from February and 9.3% higher than in the same month of 2025. In the quarter to date, however, the result remains negative: 4,400 buses were licensed, representing a 19.6% decline compared with the same period in 2025.
“For the bus market we had projected a 3% decline in 2026 and, through March, the contraction is already above 19%,” says Anfavea president Igor Calvet. According to him, the scenario “is beginning to become concerning,” especially because of the sector’s structural dependence on public programs: “A large part of the market depends on public policy, especially the Caminho da Escola program, which carries a great deal of weight.”
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A Failed Experiment? Biofuels Under Spotlight
Guy Youngs On March 31, EU ministers met to discuss the global shortage of around 11million barrels of oil per day. At the meeting, European Commissioner Dan Jørgensen urged nations to outline measures to reduce the use of oil and gas, particularly in transportation. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused panic within Europe. As a result, the EU has been advised to consider biofuels as an alternative to fossil fuels.
Unlike America, Europe is struggling to find sources of oil that are either not in Russia nor the Middle East. As a result the European Union has been advised to look again at Biofuels.
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2026 Global MHCV Production Increases Seen
Chris Fisher Global medium and heavy truck production is expected to increase in most important regions this year, but China’s MH truck segment probably will see a major structural change. Overall production in South America is expected to be flat, although Argentina is likely to post a gain of almost 10%.
North America. Medium and heavy truck production in North America is expected to increase by 9.4% this year compared with low 2025 production. While class 8 truck production is expected to increase by 11.3% this year as order rates for class 8 trucks improved strongly from December – March.
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Volvo Moves into Big Electric Equipment
Emiliano Marzoli Volvo Construction Equipment has officially transitioned the A30 Electric and A40 Electric articulated haulers into serial production at its Braås site in Sweden. Originally unveiled as prototypes at bauma 2025, these machines represent the largest electric articulated haulers currently available on the global market, boasting payloads of 29 and 39 tons, respectively.
Designed for high-utilization environments like large-scale infrastructure projects and mining, the haulers offer up to six hours of operation on a single charge, depending on the application. The first production units are scheduled for delivery to customers in the United Kingdom and Norway this month.
This move solidifies Volvo’s commitment to lead the heavy-duty transition, moving beyond compact machines into the most energy-intensive segments of the construction industry.
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Tax Decision on Buses Is Reversed
Fabio Ferraresi The Brazilian federal government reversed the decision to resume the application of taxes affecting school buses acquired under the Caminho da Escola program, administered by the Fundo Nacional de Desenvolvimento da Educação (FNDE). The discussion involved the potential reintroduction of tax charges impacting the cost structure of buses supplied through the public procurement framework, particularly related to federal and state taxation such as IPI and ICMS, as well as uncertainty regarding the treatment of PIS/Cofins.
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