News
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A Drop of Up to 10% on the Horizon
EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher AutoData. The article includes substantial information from Priscila Von Zuben Spadine, Data and Forecast Manager at Power Systems Research.
By Natasha Werneck
AutoDataHigh interest rates, weak demand, and the smaller impact of the Caminho da Escola program are dragging down the pace of Brazil’s bus industry

Priscila Von Zuben Spadine After posting moderate growth in 2025, although below initial expectations, the Brazilian bus market entered 2026 in contraction, recording a pronounced decline in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. Data presented by Anfavea, the association representing chassis manufacturers, show that, despite a punctual rebound in March, the performance of the last three months reinforces a slowdown scenario.
Registrations rebounded and totaled nearly 2,000 units in March, up 50% from February and 9.3% higher than in the same month of 2025. In the quarter to date, however, the result remains negative: 4,400 buses were licensed, representing a 19.6% decline compared with the same period in 2025.
“For the bus market we had projected a 3% decline in 2026 and, through March, the contraction is already above 19%,” says Anfavea president Igor Calvet. According to him, the scenario “is beginning to become concerning,” especially because of the sector’s structural dependence on public programs: “A large part of the market depends on public policy, especially the Caminho da Escola program, which carries a great deal of weight.”
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A Failed Experiment? Biofuels Under Spotlight

Guy Youngs On March 31, EU ministers met to discuss the global shortage of around 11million barrels of oil per day. At the meeting, European Commissioner Dan Jørgensen urged nations to outline measures to reduce the use of oil and gas, particularly in transportation. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused panic within Europe. As a result, the EU has been advised to consider biofuels as an alternative to fossil fuels.
Unlike America, Europe is struggling to find sources of oil that are either not in Russia nor the Middle East. As a result the European Union has been advised to look again at Biofuels.
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As Fossil Fuel Supplies Falter, Renewables Increase
This article reviews how China is helping Cuba shift its dependence from oil to renewable energy, by a series of massive solar parks (92 in total) with a combined output of 2,000 MW (or roughly Cuba’s entire current thermal generation from burning fossil fuels.
China has also committed to installing 10,000 photovoltaic systems for isolated homes and critical facilities. China is also investing in Cuba’s wind farms.
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US Battery Recycler Lands $1.1B Metals Refining Deal
In Tokyo, at the first Indo-Pacific Energy Security Ministerial and Business Forum, Nth Cycle (a critical metals refining company) signed a massive US$1.1 billion, 10 year, agreement to provide recycled battery metals.
Refining battery metals in the US and Europe has been difficult to scale up because the more traditional refineries often require billions of dollars in upfront investment, take a long time to get all the necessary permits and require huge amounts of material in order to be profitable.
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Oil Crisis Makes Drivers Reconsider Electrics
The US-Israeli attack on Iran, and Iran’s retaliation has caused a massive rise in the costs of petrol and diesel. In the UK, petrol is up around 30% and diesel is up around 50%. In the USA, average gas prices were up by 33% in early April
There seems to be a never ending cycle of oil-related problems. In 2008, supply, demand and speculation caused a massive price hike. In 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine causing another oil price hike. And now, the US-Israeli attack on Iran has driven yet another price hike. The fundamental problem is that transportation remains totally dependent on oil, and oil prices are set by a very volatile global market.
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2026 Global MHCV Production Increases Seen

Chris Fisher Global medium and heavy truck production is expected to increase in most important regions this year, but China’s MH truck segment probably will see a major structural change. Overall production in South America is expected to be flat, although Argentina is likely to post a gain of almost 10%.
North America. Medium and heavy truck production in North America is expected to increase by 9.4% this year compared with low 2025 production. While class 8 truck production is expected to increase by 11.3% this year as order rates for class 8 trucks improved strongly from December – March.
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Volvo Moves into Big Electric Equipment

Emiliano Marzoli Volvo Construction Equipment has officially transitioned the A30 Electric and A40 Electric articulated haulers into serial production at its Braås site in Sweden. Originally unveiled as prototypes at bauma 2025, these machines represent the largest electric articulated haulers currently available on the global market, boasting payloads of 29 and 39 tons, respectively.
Designed for high-utilization environments like large-scale infrastructure projects and mining, the haulers offer up to six hours of operation on a single charge, depending on the application. The first production units are scheduled for delivery to customers in the United Kingdom and Norway this month.
This move solidifies Volvo’s commitment to lead the heavy-duty transition, moving beyond compact machines into the most energy-intensive segments of the construction industry.
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KTM Completes Strategic Realignment
April 2026 marks a pivotal month for KTM as it completes its transition under the Bajaj Mobility AG umbrella. Following a challenging 2025, the company launched the 2026/27 Freeride E, its most advanced electric off-road motorcycle to date. Produced at the expanded E-mobility Hub in Mattighofen, the new model features a 5.5 kWh MX50 battery and a 26 hp motor, representing a major leap in power-to-weight ratio for the brand.
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Tax Decision on Buses Is Reversed

Fabio Ferraresi The Brazilian federal government reversed the decision to resume the application of taxes affecting school buses acquired under the Caminho da Escola program, administered by the Fundo Nacional de Desenvolvimento da Educação (FNDE). The discussion involved the potential reintroduction of tax charges impacting the cost structure of buses supplied through the public procurement framework, particularly related to federal and state taxation such as IPI and ICMS, as well as uncertainty regarding the treatment of PIS/Cofins.
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Indian Preet Plans Tractor Manufacturing Plant
Preet, an Indian agricultural machinery manufacturer, has announced plans to establish a tractor production facility in Brazil, in a move to strengthen its presence in the South American agricultural equipment market. The project involves local assembly operations designed to increase market proximity, reduce logistics costs and improve competitiveness in segments typically dominated by established global OEMs.
The investment reflects a strategy to expand the company’s manufacturing footprint in regions with strong demand for agricultural mechanization, particularly in medium-horsepower tractor categories.
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