Global medium and heavy truck production is expected to increase in most important regions this year, but China’s MH truck segment probably will see a major structural change. Overall production in South America is expected to be flat, although Argentina is likely to post a gain of almost 10%.
North America. Medium and heavy truck production in North America is expected to increase by 9.4% this year compared with low 2025 production. While class 8 truck production is expected to increase by 11.3% this year as order rates for class 8 trucks improved strongly from December – March.
Improvement in freight rates and freight demand along with tightening truck capacity and some level of truck pre-buy ahead of the 2027 GHG emission regulations is expected to drive increased truck production this year. However, a protracted conflict in the Middle East would put significant downside pressure on truck demand primarily due to higher fuel cost, supply chain disruptions and an overall concern about the state of the economy moving forward throughout the year.
Europe. Medium and heavy truck production in Europe is expected to increase by 6% this year compared to 2025. After very low truck demand during the past few years, it does appear that demand may have bottomed out and has started to improve this year. Truck demand in Western Europe is expected to improve this year as the fleets will need to replace their older trucks purchased in 2022 and 2023.
With regard to the conflict in the Middle East, if this conflict is relatively short lived (a month or two), it will probably have minimal impact on the European and global economy. However, if this conflict were to drag on and oil tankers could not pass through the Strait of Hormuz, this would impact Europe with higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions. Just the thought of an economic slowdown would likely give the fleets pause on capital investment.
South Asia. After a strong level of vehicle replacement during the past few years, commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 3.1% this year compared with 2025. In India, truck and freight capacity has mostly rebalanced and MHCV production is expected to increase by 3% this year compared with 2025. Demand is expected to grow in the mid-term owing to a strong macroeconomic environment, healthy fleet utilization levels, Government capex on infrastructure projects, and stable freight demand.
South America. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to be flat this year compared with 2025. Production in Argentina is expected to increase by 9.6% as the economy is improving and inflation is down significantly from a year ago. MHCV production in Brazil is expected to be flat this year while vehicle production in Columbia is forecasted to increase by 5% this year.
Japan/Korea. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in Japan and South Korea is expected to increase by 2.1% in 2026 over last year. Commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 2.1% in Japan and increase by 2.6% in South Korea this year.
In Japan, infrastructure spending and the continued need for the fleets to replace older trucks will be the primary reasons for increased truck demand this year. For both Japan and South Korea, the trade tariff uncertainty will place pressure on the OEMs in their various export markets throughout the year.
Greater China. In 2026, China’s heavy-duty truck industry total sales are expected to remain in a high range of 1.1 million to 1.16 million units, showing a trend of “slight total growth but drastic structural change.” Domestic sales, supported by the concentrated replacement of China V emission standard models and the continuation of the “trade-in” policy, are projected to be approximately 700,000 to 790,000 units, while the export market will become a key growth pole, contributing an estimated 300,000 to 340,000 units. PSR
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research
