In July, the Trump administration proposed a draft rule rolling back the Greenhouse Gas Phase 3 rule, among the last of – if not the biggest – looming Biden-era emissions regulations facing the trucking industry.
The proposal was announced jointly with Environmental Protection Agency Administrator (EPA) Lee Zeldin’s call to revoke the Endangerment Finding that has allowed presidential administrations to regulate greenhouse gases since 2009.
The repeal of greenhouse gas regulations is a long road that includes a lengthy rulemaking process and likely numerous legal challenges.
The proposal, if finalized, would remove all Biden-era and Obama-era greenhouse gas standards for light-duty, medium-duty and heavy-duty vehicles and heavy-duty engines, starting with EPA’s first greenhouse gas regulations set in 2010 for light-duty vehicles and those set in 2011 for medium-duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles and engines.
American Trucking Associations President and CEO Chris Spear called the GHG Phase 3 rule “disastrous” and an “electric-truck mandate [that] put the trucking industry on a path to economic ruin and would have crippled our supply chain, disrupted deliveries, and raised prices for American families and businesses.”
Several truck and engine OEMs told CCJ anonymously that EPA ’27-compliant engines are going to be brought to market for model year 2027 with or without federal mandates. EPA’s 2027 Low-NOx Rule, which is also being scrutinized, mandated redefining the “useful life” of regulated trucks from 435,000 miles to up to 650,000 miles, and it increased emissions systems warranties from 100,000 miles to up to 450,000 miles for model year 2027 trucks.
The OEMs agreed that having those warranties remain at their current levels rather than increasing them under the new rule would help keep fleets’ costs down on the new engines.
Likely the most certain outcome is that a 2027 model year truck pre-buy that has long been on the ropes would be completely off the table if Zeldin’s proposal is finalized. Lingering poor trucking economics, tariffs and President Trump’s prior repeal of California’s emissions waivers had already tamped down expectations for a sales rush ahead of the 2027 model year.
PSR Analysis. Revoking the 2009 Endangerment Finding, will enable the Trump Administration to effectively cancel or significantly adjust the Phase 3 GHG emission regulations for MHCV’s scheduled for implementation in 2027.
Without a robust national charging infrastructure, transitioning from diesel to zero-emission vehicles in such a short timeframe would be impossible and more than disrupt the nation’s supply chain.
A good outcome would be for the industry to remain with the current emission technology that is required under the Phase 2 Emission Regulations until the national power grid is sufficiently upgraded and an national electric charging infrastructure is established.
Significantly reducing the battery weight thus increasing freight payload will also be an important barrier to overcome. Reducing the high up-front vehicle cost will ultimately need to come from scaling up production. This would be the last phase of the zero-emission process and some form of regulation or financial incentive may be needed to drive adoption rates.
The revocation of the 2009 Endangerment Finding will certainly be challenged in the U.S. court system and will likely reach the Supreme Court for a final decision. While the outcome of any decision is unknown, the disruption in the trucking industry will certainly continue. PSR
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research
