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In this episode of the PSR PowerTALK Podcast Chris Fisher, Power Systems’ Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst, discusses the Q4 2020 global production facts and related forecasts for medium and heavy trucks.
Transcript
Welcome to PowerTALK Truck podcast February 2021. Produced by Power Systems Research, the leading supplier of global production data and forecasts to the engine power products and Components industries. Here’s today’s host, Emiliano Marzoli, Manager of Power Systems Research, European Operations.
Chris Fisher is responsible for developing and managing all information products related to the global commercial vehicle industry. He received his Business Administration degree from the University of Nebraska. Prior to coming to work at Power Systems Research, Chris worked at Baldwin Filters as a Market Analyst, OEM Account Representative, and as the Manager of Engineering Services. Chris has been with Power Systems Research since 2006 and has written and published many articles and is a key contributor to Transport Topics, Bloomberg, Diesel Progress and various other publications.
In this episode of PSR PowerTALK, Chris Fisher, senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research, talks about the reasons for the 42.5% first quarter 2021 drop in global truck production.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont:
From Power systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today we’ll discuss global truck production with Chris Fisher, PSR, senior commercial vehicle analyst.
During the past few years there has been plenty of talk about battery electric power replacing diesel-powered internal combustion engines in commercial trucks. At some point this might be true for short and regional haul freight carriers, but what about the long-haul heavy truck segment?
Currently, the lack of a sufficient charging infrastructure, range anxiety and the extreme weights associated with the batteries are significant deterrents to mass adoption of long-haul battery electric trucks. However, hydrogen fuel cell trucks for long-haul applications appear to be a viable option in this segment. Even though fuel cell trucks currently have a greater range and lighter weight than battery electric trucks, they have the same problem as electric trucks: a lack of refueling infrastructure.
Chris Fisher is responsible for developing and managing all information products related to the global commercial vehicle industry. He received his Business Administration degree from the University of Nebraska. Prior to coming to work at Power Systems Research, Chris worked at Baldwin Filters as a Market Analyst, OEM Account Representative, and as the Manager of Engineering Services. Chris has been with Power Systems Research since 2006 and has written and published many articles and is a key contributor to Transport Topics, Bloomberg, Diesel Progress and various other publications.
Chris Fisher, Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research, discusses the Q2 2021 global production facts and related forecasts for medium and heavy trucks, as reported in the quarterly PSR Truck Production Index.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont
From Power Systems Research, I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.
Today we’ll discuss global truck production with Chris Fisher. Chris is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research.
Even though Tesla’s “Battery Day” was held Sept. 22, 2020, it didn’t produce the wildly exciting results that Elon Musk had promised would “blow your mind.”
Tyler Wiegert
During its event, Tesla unveiled plans to develop a “million mile” battery that could last an electric car’s entire lifetime on the road. It also outlined plans to dramatically reduce the cost of its battery cells and packs to $100 per kilowatt-hour, at which point experts believe electric cars will become comparable in price to combustion engine vehicles.
Bill Gates-backed QuantumScape, the first US battery company to go public in a decade, announced that it has overcome two major hurdles to create an all-metal lithium battery, which, if true, would allow electric vehicles to go up to 50% further on a single charge. Those hurdles were metallic lithium’s propensity to explode when it comes into contact with liquid and its needle structure that has historically punctured plastic separators between electrodes and caused shorts.
In late March, about halfway through the United States’ first round of social distancing, Generac CEO Aaron Jagdfeld spoke with Yahoo Finance’s Seana Smith about whether Generac was seeing a spike in demand from COVID-19.
Tyler Wiegert
Smith noted that the power generation segment tends to do better during and after a natural disaster, and wanted to know the answer to a question that has also been on our minds at Power Systems Research: “Is COVID-19 a Natural Disaster?”
Like many of the other questions surrounding COVID-19, like “Is the United States heading into a recession?” or “How do we distribute scarce medical resources?” the answer isn’t clear cut.
Additionally, hotels and other buildings are being converted into temporary hospitals as states prepare for their regular ICUs to reach capacity. He states that those buildings might not have typically had back-up power, but now need to be quickly outfitted to meet regulations for critical care centers.
SUMMARY. 2021 was a year of big hopes for economic recovery and pandemic management, and, overall, the economic rebound was strong. Looking at the state of the economy in general, and the key economic indicators such as GDP, interest rates, employment levels, etc., the North America market finished the year on a very high note. At the same time, development of new pandemic variants as well as ongoing issues with supply chains have led to manufacturing issues.
The second half of 2021 brought steady economic activities and strong economic recovery. Despite this strong performance, many existing and new challenges were seen. Problems from pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, logistics backlogs, and semiconductor shortages to new virus variations and labor market issues have contributed to slower growth in Q4 2021 than during the first half of last year.
Let’s break it down. The “Great Resignation” means companies must make themselves more attractive to new hires, and it provides those workers who remain more leverage to change corporate cultures from the inside.
With help of government support and targeted fiscal policies, the US economy showed a strong comeback in 2021. Furthermore, the growth trajectory is well positioned to continue to expand into the next few years, however, at much slower pace, than in 2021.
At the same time, there are many reasons for us to be optimistic about this trend. Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation. In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, and called for a return of demand for most markets in 2021. Last year, we witnessed a strong level of activities and an economic rebound for
SUMMARY: In this article we provide a global overview on a regional basis of the medium and heavy commercial vehicle market (GVWR > 6 MT’s) along with current trends and OEM happenings in North America.
NORTH AMERICA. MHCV production in North America is expected to decline by 35% in 2020 compared to 2019. However, orders for class 8 trucks improved significantly in Q4 2020 as large fleets placed their orders for a 2021 build. This appears to signal an improvement in demand for 2021 as the market aligns itself with the expected freight level moving forward. The consumer segment was strong during the last half of the year and the industrial segment is now expected to improve, as well.
Komatsu says it plans to restructure its business in China this year, cutting its annual production capacity of construction machinery equipment in China by nearly 40% to 10,000 units.
At the same time, due to sluggish market demand, it will merge its equipment production subsidiary and its parts subsidiary in Jining City, Shandong Province. The production subsidiary and casting subsidiary based in Changzhou City, Jiangsu Province, also will be merged.
Komatsu’s production subsidiaries in the two provinces previously terminated their joint venture relationship. Even if the annual production capacity is reduced to 10,000 units, it is expected that local production capacity will enable Komatsu to increase exports to Southeast Asia and other regions.
ST. PAUL, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 106 to 120, or 13.2%, for the three-month period ended June 30, 2019, from Q1 2019. The year-over-year (Q2 2018 to Q2 2019) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 122 to 120, or 1.6%.
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