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US Tariffs Could Hurt Japan GDP
Akihiro Komuro On April 12, as I write this, things are still in flux. There is a lot of media coverage every day, with reports on the tariffs reaching almost hysterical levels. The reciprocal tariff rate for Japan announced by the U.S. is 24%, which is an unexpectedly high level given the past relationship between the two countries.
As a result, Japan’s real GDP is expected to fall by about 0.6% in the short term (2025) and 1.8% in the medium term (2029). This will have a huge impact on Japan, which has maintained a growth rate of around 3% per year. It has been reported that Japan is currently negotiating with the Trump administration, but it is doubtful whether the current Japanese government will be able to negotiate effectively with the US. We will see whether the terms will be reconsidered after the negotiations in the future.
I would just like to point out one thing: President Trump talks about Japan’s failure to buy American cars as unfair and negligent, but this is a clear mistake. It is true that American cars do not sell well in Japan. GM is the only company with a formal dealer network in Japan, and it is even hard to find GM dealer shops in Japan. Chrysler pulled out in 2018 and Ford in 2016.
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Kubota Plans Tractor Plant in India, Doubling Production
Akihiro Komuro Kubota plans to build a tractor factory in India, open that will be operational by 2030. The investment is expected to be in the tens of billions of yen. The annual production volume will be increased to approximately 240,000 units, double the current volume.
India accounts for about half of the global tractor market in terms of volume, but Kubota’s market share in the country is only about 25%. The company aims to increase sales by developing new products in cooperation with the local manufacturer it has acquired.
Currently, it produces about 120,000 units a year at three factories, including Escorts, which it acquired in April 2022 for about $953,020,000 USD (140 billion yen). Its production capacity is 170,000 to 180,000 units, but it is expected to fall short of that in the next five years.
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Kanadevia To Build Plant for Hydrogen Equipment
Akihiro Komuro Kanadevia (formerly Hitachi Zosen) said it plans to build the first mass-production plant for water electrolysis equipment, which produces hydrogen by electrolyzing water, in Yamanashi Prefecture.
A company announcement said, “We want to develop this as an important production base that contributes to the realization of a hydrogen society. The company will invest approximately 8 billion yen ($52,000,000 USD) to build a mass production plant for water electrolysis equipment with an annual production capacity of 1 gigawatt (157,000 tons of hydrogen produced).
Construction is scheduled to begin about June 2026, with completion and operation by the end of fiscal 2028. The company plans to position this as a domestic mother plant, and in the future, it envisions gradually expanding its hydrogen production equipment manufacturing bases both in Japan and overseas.
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