St. Paul, MN —The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) decreased from 119 to 114, or -4.2%, for the three-month period ending March 31, 2026, from Q4 2025. The year-over-year (Q1 2025 to Q1 2026) gain for the PSR-TPI was, 113 to 114, or 0.9%. The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets. This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
All Regions. MHCV demand will vary by region in 2026. North America and European vehicle demand is expected to improve somewhat over last year; China is expected to see a single digit decline in production. Much of the decline comes on the heels of very high levels of production in 2025.
Global Index. Overall, global production is expected to decline slightly in 2026 over last year. Ongoing tariffs along with the conflict in the Middle East and the shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are putting pressure on truck demand this year.
North America. Medium and heavy truck production in North America is expected to increase by 9.4% this year compared with low 2025 production. While class 8 truck production is expected to increase by 11.3% this year as order rates for class 8 trucks improved strongly from December – March. Improvement in freight rates and freight demand along with tightening truck capacity and some level of truck pre-buy ahead of the 2027 GHG emission regulations is expected to drive increased truck production this year. However, a protracted conflict in the Middle East would put significant downside pressure on truck demand primarily due to higher fuel cost, supply chain disruptions and an overall concern about the state of the economy moving forward throughout the year. PSR
By Jim Downey is Vice President-Global Data Products at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research
