In 2025, Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in South America, Greater China, South Asia and Japan/Korea is expected to increase while European and North American production is expected to decline somewhat significantly this year over 2024.
Global Index. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 1.9% this year over 2024. A moderate softening of the global economy along with negative impacts from increased tariffs has placed pressure on vehicle demand this year.
North America. The commercial truck market in North America remains in a “wait and see” mode with regard to truck sales this year. Uncertainty about the economy and the impact of the trade tariffs moving forward is causing hesitancy among the various fleets. Many fleet owners also believe the EPA will modify or outright cancel the phase 3 GHG emission regulations thus significantly reducing the cost of the MY 2027 vehicles and effectively eliminating any significant 2026 truck pre-buy. At the time of this writing, PSR believes there will be no significant truck pre-buy through the rest of this year and a significantly reduced pre-buy if any, in 2026. Medium and heavy truck production is expected to decline by 13% this year compared with 2024. PSR
Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst for Power Systems Research
