Americans are warily eyeing prices at the pump as oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz grind to a halt amid the threat of Iranian attacks on vessels. The IEA took the unprecedented step of saying it would release 400 million barrels of oil from reserve on Wednesday. But oil is far from the only product for which the world economy is heavily dependent on the shallow, narrow waterway which connects Persian Gulf ports with the rest of the world. From the metals market to agriculture and autos, a de facto closure of the strait would ripple through business sectors and both the U.S. and world economy.
Aluminum is a good example. It is one of the biggest non-petroleum commerce casualties of the U.S.-Iran war. In 2025, the Middle East accounted for roughly 21% of unwrought aluminum imports and 13% of wrought aluminum imports — and those percentages have been rising. Unwrought aluminum is the raw, unprocessed metal in forms like ingots and billets, while wrought aluminum has been mechanically shaped into sheets, rods, or other finished forms used directly in manufacturing.
“The Iran situation is having an impact, and as the conflict continues, industry concerns may grow,” said Matt Meenan, spokesman for the Aluminum Association, a trade organization representing the U.S. aluminum industry. “This is a highly dynamic situation,” Meenan said.
The longer the Middle East conflict goes on, the more damage that will be done to supplies of products that Americans expect to be on the shelves.
“The Gulf is a major supplier of aluminum, and disruptions could tighten supply chains for advanced manufacturing,” said Tony Pelli, practice director of supply chain security and resilience at BSI Consulting, a global risk management firm. “Aluminum prices are already rising, and further disruption could increase input costs for automotive, aerospace, and construction manufacturing in the U.S. and Europe.”
SOURCE: CNBC – 3-11-26
PSR Analysis. It is always something. Just as the North American trucking industry has started a transition into a positive freight environment, an on-going conflict in the Middle East could derail this transition. During the last three months, the OEMs have seen stronger order books primarily driven by tighter truck capacity, improved freight rates and improving freight demand along with an overall sense of optimism.
If this conflict ends relatively quickly and the Strait of Hormuz can fully open-up, the commercial truck market will continue to improve this year and beyond. If this conflict drags on, it will almost certainly give the fleets pause on purchasing new trucks out of fear of a major freight slowdown or even an economic recession. PSR
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research
