Medium and heavy truck production in North America is expected to increase by 4.9% this year compared with 2025. While class 8 truck production is expected to increase by 6.1% this year, the industry continues to be negatively impacted by the weight of the tariffs, low freight demand, excess truck capacity and relatively high finance rates which is expected to continue through at least the first half of the year.
With regard to the implementation of the phase 3 GHG emission regulations, it will be later in the spring before the EPA finalizes any revisions to the standards. Many in the industry believe the EPA will retain the 0.035 g/hp-hr standard along with the 2027 implementation date but cancel the extended warranty requirements which would have added significant up-front cost to the trucks.
In the EPA revision it is also likely the 0.035 g/hp-hr standard will remain in place for the foreseeable future. PSR expected class 8 truck demand to improve later this year and be stronger in 2027 – 2029 as the fleets replace their aging trucks purchased in the 2022 – 2024 time-cycle.
Across the Atlantic,medium and heavy truck production in Europe is expected to increase by 5% this year compared to 2025. After very low truck demand during the past few years, it appears that demand may have bottomed out and will likely improve this year. Truck demand in Western Europe is expected to improve this year and into 2027 and 2028 as the fleets will need to replace their older trucks purchased in 2022 and 2023.
A stronger European economy along with implementation of the Euro 7 emission regulations in May 2029 should drive stronger truck demand during the next few years. PSR
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research
