St. Paul, MN— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) decreased from 117 to 107, or -8.5%, for the three-month period ending Sept. 30, 2025, from Q2 2025. The year-over-year (Q3 2024 to Q3 2025) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 109 to 107, or -1.8%.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
All Regions. In 2025, Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in South America, Greater China, South Asia and Japan/Korea are expected to increase while European and North American production is expected to decline significantly this year over 2024. Truck demand in North America and Europe is expected to show slight improvement in 2026.
Global Index. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline 3.2% this year over 2024. A moderate softening of the global economy along with negative impacts from increased tariffs has placed pressure on vehicle demand this year. However, global truck demand is expected to see some improvement in 2026.
North America. Medium and heavy truck production in North America is expected to decline 15.8% this year compared with 2024. The commercial truck market in North America remains in a “wait and see” mode with regard to truck sales this year. Uncertainty about the economy and the impact of the trade tariffs moving forward is causing hesitancy among many fleets. Many fleet owners also believe the EPA will modify or outright cancel the phase 3 GHG emission regulations, thus significantly reducing the cost of the MY 2027 vehicles and effectively eliminating any significant 2026 truck pre-buy. At the time of this writing, PSR believes there will be no significant truck pre-buy through the rest of this year and a significantly reduced pre-buy, if any, in 2026. Demand is expected to be strong in 2027 – 2029 as the fleets replace their aging trucks purchased in the 2022 – 2024 time-cycle. PSR
Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst for Power Systems Research
