But that’s easy, I hear you say, its Australia and its sunny. Well, how about cold and snowy Canada? Transport Canada’s Zero-Emission Trucking Program, recently published a study which monitored over than 200 thousand kms (124,224 miles) of diesel and electric truck data over a year of operations in the Montreal-area. There findings were staggering with nearly $200k of savings per electric truck

Meanwhile in Europe, Trailer Dynamics in Germany has a different idea. Instead of electrifying the tractor, electrify the semi-trailer, so if you use an electric truck, great, this boosts your range, but if you are using a diesel truck, the e-Trailer can reduce fuel costs considerably. The benefits of a self-powered, battery-electric semi-trailer go beyond reducing CO₂ emissions as the technology also promises significant efficiency gains, which is music to the ears of fleet managers

Source: PV Magazine: Read The Article

PSR Analysis: This article is one of many that give a clear indication of where trucking (especially reefers) will go in the future, but the key isn’t really the cost saving, the efficiency improvements or the de-carbonization, but rather insurance. In the trucking world, if you have a 100k cargo of say, pharmaceuticals, the insurance company has historically insisted on a second diesel ICE to power the reefer unit alone. This is why this real life test of refrigerated goods in Australia’s heat, is very telling.    PSR

Americans are warily eyeing prices at the pump as oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz grind to a halt amid the threat of Iranian attacks on vessels. The IEA took the unprecedented step of saying it would release 400 million barrels of oil from reserve on Wednesday. But oil is far from the only product for which the world economy is heavily dependent on the shallow, narrow waterway which connects Persian Gulf ports with the rest of the world. From the metals market to agriculture and autos, a de facto closure of the strait would ripple through business sectors and both the U.S. and world economy.

Aluminum is a good example. It is one of the biggest non-petroleum commerce casualties of the U.S.-Iran war. In 2025, the Middle East accounted for roughly 21% of unwrought aluminum imports and 13% of wrought aluminum imports — and those percentages have been rising. Unwrought aluminum is the raw, unprocessed metal in forms like ingots and billets, while wrought aluminum has been mechanically shaped into sheets, rods, or other finished forms used directly in manufacturing.  

“The Iran situation is having an impact, and as the conflict continues, industry concerns may grow,” said Matt Meenan, spokesman for the Aluminum Association, a trade organization representing the U.S. aluminum industry. “This is a highly dynamic situation,” Meenan said. 

The longer the Middle East conflict goes on, the more damage that will be done to supplies of products that Americans expect to be on the shelves. 

“The Gulf is a major supplier of aluminum, and disruptions could tighten supply chains for advanced manufacturing,” said Tony Pelli, practice director of supply chain security and resilience at BSI Consulting, a global risk management firm. “Aluminum prices are already rising, and further disruption could increase input costs for automotive, aerospace, and construction manufacturing in the U.S. and Europe.” 

SOURCE:  CNBC – 3-11-26

PSR Analysis. It is always something.  Just as the North American trucking industry has started a transition into a positive freight environment, an on-going conflict in the Middle East could derail this transition.  During the last three months, the OEMs have seen stronger order books primarily driven by tighter truck capacity, improved freight rates and improving freight demand along with an overall sense of optimism. 

If this conflict ends relatively quickly and the Strait of Hormuz can fully open-up, the commercial truck market will continue to improve this year and beyond.  If this conflict drags on, it will almost certainly give the fleets pause on purchasing new trucks out of fear of a major freight slowdown or even an economic recession.    PSR

Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

Parallel to this commercial growth, MAN is finalizing the transition of the Lion’s Coach E into series production. Following its world premiere at Busworld Europe in late 2025 and the successful completion of rigorous winter trials in the Arctic Circle in March 2026, the Lion’s Coach E is the first battery-electric coach from a major European OEM to enter serial production at the Ankara facility, with first customer deliveries slated for later this year.

Source:  Traton Press Release  Read The Article

Industry Implications. The 30% year-on-year order increase (2025 vs. 2024) underscores a “decoupling” of European fleet demand from the broader global freight recession seen in North America and Brazil. For MAN, this growth is a critical endorsement of its “full-liner” strategy, proving that its diversified portfolio—particularly in urban buses and light vans—provides a necessary buffer when the heavy-duty truck market fluctuates.

The launch of the Lion’s Coach E represents a high-stakes strategic play to capture the “last frontier” of transport electrification: long-haul travel. By being the first major European manufacturer to move from prototypes to a dedicated serial production line in 2026, MAN is effectively setting the technical benchmark for the industry. This first-mover advantage is bolstered by the use of shared components from the MAN eTruck program, allowing for rapid scaling and providing a mature solution for tour operators facing imminent “Zero Emission Zone” restrictions across European capitals.   PSR

Brazilian vehicle exports showed mixed performance in early 2026, increasing significantly to Mexico while declining sharply to Argentina. Growth in shipments to Mexico reflects stronger demand conditions and efforts by Brazilian OEMs to diversify export destinations, while the drop in Argentina is linked to weaker domestic demand, tighter import controls and foreign exchange constraints.

Overall exports remained supported by regional demand adjustments and production planning by automakers, with light vehicles representing the bulk of volumes. The shift indicates an ongoing reconfiguration of South American automotive trade flows amid macroeconomic instability across key markets.

Source: Automotive Business      Read The Article

PSR Analysis. Diversification supports volume stability but depends on sustained competitiveness against Mexican domestic production and global platforms. Short term performance will remain sensitive to Argentina’s macroeconomic normalization and trade policy conditions. The trend suggests continued adjustments in production allocation, logistics planning and market positioning across the Mercosur automotive value chain.  PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development, South America, for Power Systems Research

OEMs adjusted output in response to lower order intake, particularly in the heavy duty segment. The result highlights ongoing volatility in Brazil’s commercial vehicle cycle and limited short term impact of policy support measures on production levels.

Source: AutoData      Read The Article

PSR Analysis. The contraction indicates that structural demand drivers such as freight activity and credit conditions remain more decisive than industrial policy incentives in the short term. Market recovery will depend on cargo volume growth, financing availability and operator confidence. The sector remains in a cyclical adjustment phase, with production planning closely tied to order backlog dynamics. Medium term effects of Mover Brazil will likely materialize gradually through efficiency gains and fleet modernization rather than immediate volume expansion.  PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development, South America, for Power Systems Research

The vehicle is expected to be produced locally and positioned in the compact SUV segment, supporting Volkswagen’s regional electrification roadmap. The launch reinforces the company’s focus on hybridization technologies adapted to Brazilian market conditions and regulatory trends.

Source: Automotive Business     Read The Article

PSR Analysis. The Tukan signals Volkswagen’s strategic alignment with Brazil’s ethanol ecosystem by prioritizing flex hybrid solutions over full BEV adoption in the near term. This pathway offers lower infrastructure risk and faster market scalability but depends on cost competitiveness and consumer acceptance. The project reflects an expansion stage within the brand’s regional electrification strategy, with potential spillovers across Mercosur supply chains. Market impact will depend on pricing strategy, local content levels and policy incentives for hybrid technologies.  PSR

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets. This data comes from OE Link,, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. In 2026, all regions are expected to see some level of improvement in the MHCV segment. After low levels of production in Europe and North America in 2025, a slight increase in demand in 2026 is expected as both regions recover and should see stronger demand in 2027 and 2028. All other regions are expected to see improvement as well.

Global. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 3.7% this year over 2025. A moderate softening of the global economy along with negative impacts from increased tariffs had placed pressure on vehicle demand last year but market conditions are stabilizing heading into 2026.  PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President, Global Data Products, at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

Twenty buses ordered by the city of Lublin were left undelivered, subsidies were put at risk, and local authorities were forced back to the drawing board.

This was not a surprise caused by mismanagement alone. It was the visible failure of a broader European experiment that tried to industrialize hydrogen buses in parallel with battery electric buses, splitting capital, attention, and learning curves in a market that never had the scale to support both.”

Source: Clean Technica   Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Given Poland’s dominant position within electric powered buses, If hydrogen buses struggle to make economic and operational sense here, it is difficult to argue that they will succeed elsewhere in Europe.    PSR

Guy Youngs is Forecast & Adoption Lead at Power Systems Research

The update was initially reported by The Los Angeles Times.

Tesla reportedly is positioned to receive roughly $165 million in California clean-truck incentives for its Semi.

As per the Times, the Tesla Semi’s funding will come from California’s Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Incentive Project (HVIP), which was designed to accelerate the adoption of cleaner medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. Since its launch in 2009, the HVIP has distributed more than $1.6 billion to support zero-emission trucks and buses across the state.

In recent funding rounds, nearly 1,000 HVIP vouchers were provisionally reserved for the Tesla Semi, giving Tesla a far larger share of available funding than any other automaker. An analysis by the Times found that even after revisions to public data, Tesla still accounts for about $165 million in incentives. The next-largest recipient, Canadian bus manufacturer New Flyer, received roughly $68 million.

This is quite unsurprising, however, considering that the Tesla Semi does not have a lot of competition in the zero-emissions trucking segment.

To qualify for HVIP funding, vehicles must be approved by the California Air Resources Board and listed in the program catalog, as noted in an electrive report. When the Tesla Semi voucher applications were submitted, public certification records only showed eligibility for the 2024 model year, with later model years not yet listed.

State officials have stated that certification details often involve confidential business information and that funding will only be paid once vehicles are fully approved and delivered. Still, the first-come, first-served nature of HVIP means large voucher reservations can effectively crowd out competing electric trucks. Incentive amounts for the Semi reportedly ranged from about $84,000 to as much as $351,000 per vehicle after data adjustments.

Unveiled in 2017, the Tesla Semi has seen limited deliveries so far, though CEO Elon Musk has recently reiterated that the Class 8 all-electric truck will enter mass production this year.

Article Source: TESLARATI

The updated article was initially reported by The Los Angeles Times.

PSR Analysis. Will the truck subsidies from CARB along with the other state and federal subsidies be enough to support a scale up of the Tesla semi-truck production during the next few years? 

Ultimately, Tesla along with the other OEMs will need to reduce the up-front cost significantly and overcome various other barriers before mass adoption can occur.  Aside from the high up-front truck cost, charging infrastructure, duty cycles and reduced battery weight to increase payload will need to be overcome to achieve mass production.  At some point, the subsidies will likely end.  Class 8 battery electric truck demand will need to increase significantly in order to reduce the truck cost otherwise demand will likely end when the subsidies end.  PSR

Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

Toyota’s engine manufacturing plant in Porto Feliz (SP), Brazil, will not resume full production until 2028 after suffering severe structural damage caused by a storm in September 2025. The facility, responsible for producing flex-fuel ICE engines for models such as Corolla, Corolla Cross and Yaris, was heavily damaged, requiring complete reconstruction. Only the original foundation slab will be reused, with a new industrial building designed to incorporate higher levels of automation and a more compact manufacturing layout.

During the reconstruction period, Toyota implemented contingency measures, including the installation of a temporary structure in Porto Feliz to maintain partial engine production. Part of the workforce was reassigned to the Sorocaba plant, while other employees entered temporary layoff programs. The company plans to test a new productivity and manufacturing concept by the end of 2027, with full operational normalization scheduled for 2028.

Source: AutoData     Read The Article

PSR Analysis. Toyota has implemented a temporary multi-origin supply chain, importing fully assembled engines—mainly from Japan—while performing final assembly of semi-knocked-down units in Brazil. This hybrid model mitigates short-term production risks but increases logistics complexity and FX exposure. The use of Japan, Turkey, and Indonesia reflects global manufacturing flexibility, yet signals reliance on external capacity during the Porto Feliz shutdown. Local assembly of flex-fuel engines helps preserve partial local content and regulatory alignment. As a contingency structure, the model entails higher lead times and cost sensitivity. Its viability depends on disruption duration and exchange rate stability, with potential margin pressure if prolonged.   PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Managing Director, South America, for Power Systems Research