“Our next target in terms of geographical expansion is Southeast Asia. We have been talking about it for a long time. We want to get into four different markets in Southeast Asia. “We expanded our range of products (in Middle Eastern markets) and that is why as a result we believe we should be in a position to record one of the best years when it comes to international operations” – Shenu Agarwal, Managing Director and CEO

Source: Economic Times. Read The Article

Ashok Leyland is intensifying its international expansion efforts, setting its sights on Southeast Asia to drive export growth in the coming year. This strategic push is part of a broader plan to strengthen its presence outside India while maintaining strong domestic sales. The company has already launched operations in the Philippines, with Malaysia lined up next, aiming to establish a firm foothold in the region.

Financially, the company’s performance in recent quarters has shown resilience and growth. Profits have risen significantly, positioning Ashok Leyland to support its expansion goals and new initiatives effectively. Its electric vehicle arm, Switch Mobility, is a pivotal part of the growth strategy. Specializing in electric buses and light commercial vehicles, Switch Mobility has increased its production capacity, aligning with the rising demand for sustainable transport solutions. The subsidiary is approaching EBITDA break-even, a sign of steady progress and market traction, further supported by a large order backlog.

The company’s growth plans aren’t without challenges. The medium and heavy commercial vehicle segment experienced a slight slowdown, impacted by weather disruptions and delays in government capital expenditure. However, these factors are viewed as temporary, and Ashok Leyland expects market conditions to stabilize, supporting growth through the remainder of the fiscal year.

Ashok Leyland’s focus on alternative fuels and electric vehicles also reflects a strategic alignment with global shifts towards cleaner and more efficient transport solutions. This expansion into emerging markets, coupled with a commitment to sustainable innovation, underscores its intention to be a forward-looking player in the commercial vehicle sector.   PSR

Aditya Kondejkar is Research Analyst – South Asia Operations for Power Systems Research

Starting in 2025, vehicle exports from Brazil to Colombia will once again be taxed at a 54% rate. The tax exemption agreement, in place since 2017, will not be renewed. According to the Colombian government, this decision is designed to protect its local automotive industry, currently dominated by Renault. This is a setback for Brazilian manufacturers, who exported fewer vehicles in 2024, with a 30% drop compared to the previous year.

Source: Automotive Business     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: This means an important reduction of exports from Brazil, affecting some OEM exports severely; for others, there will be no impact. These production impacts are already deployed in the forecast in OE Link database.

Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development-South America, for Power Systems Research

Western countries–United States, Europe and Canada–are placing tariffs on low-cost Chinese EVs and Beijing doesn’t like it. Read about the EV tariff controversy in the July 2024 issue of PowerTALK News. Also in this issue are articles on the global motorcycle market, North American scooter production and Hitachi’s demonstration of a huge EV mining truck.

ALTERNATIVE POWER REPORT

• EV Sales Are Headed for Long-Term Growth
• Research Offers Environmentally Friendly Lithium Production
• EU Tariffs Hit Chinese EVs, Draw Reaction from Beijing
• Canada Considers Tariffs on Chinese EVs

GLOBAL:  

• 2024 MHCV Production Expected To Decline by 1.6%
• 2024 Global Motorcycle Market Estimated at $144 Billion

DATAPOINT: NA Scooter Production

EUROPE:

• Belgium Risks Losing Audi Car Production in Brussels
• Electric/Hybrid Marine Event Shows New Technologies

BRAZIL/SOUTH AMERICA:

• Brazil Truck Production Grows Significantly
• Brazil’s Frasle Mobility To Buy Dacomsa for $389 Million

JAPAN: Hitachi Demonstrates Ultra-Large Electric Dump Truck
THAILAND: Honda To Cut Thai Car Production Capacity by 50%
CHINA: Chinese Joint Venture Begins Battery Plant in Mississippi
INDIA: Bajaj, TVS Enter CNG Two-Wheeler Market PSR

Power Systems Research (PSR), a leading source of global production and forecast information for powered equipment, has expanded its capabilities with the addition of Guy Youngs, an experienced market intelligence specialist.

Youngs, who has more than 30 years’ experience as an industry market analyst, most recently spent 11 years working for Perkins Engines in the United Kingdom.

While at Perkins Engines, he led the development of important forecast tools, including the creation of a Market Model used by Perkins Engines’ global team as a single source for its market analysis and planning efforts.

At PSR, Youngs will assume the new role of Forecast and Technology Adoption Lead. He will be responsible for continuing to develop and adapt PSR’s industry forecast, overseeing the rate of technology adoption of alternative power sources into the future outlook and technology mix. 

His duties will involve regular engagement with PSR’s global analyst team.  These efforts will guide and mentor the team towards thinking analytically about market developments for alternative power sources such as fuel cells and battery electric powered equipment as well as growth drivers and trends within various regions and applications. 

“In the new position of Forecast and Technology Adoption Lead, Youngs will provide PSR with expanded capabilities towards ensuring our overall process and approach to forecasting is in synch with the market,” said Joe Zirnhelt, CEO and President of Power Systems Research.

“This increased resource will permit us to stay on top of new developments and ensure we are constantly evaluating and evolving our approach to forecasting,” said Zirnhelt.

“We know from our clients that historical context is important but there are increasingly questions surrounding short, medium and longer-term outlook expectations.  These questions center around underlying market growth and the adoption of alternative drive technologies into the forecast outlook.  This is where Guy’s background and experience will benefit PSR as we to continue to adapt our forecast of the powered equipment market to changes that are only accelerating within the marketplace.”

“I am excited to join the PSR team and look forward to bringing my industry experience and recognition of the complexity of technology choices that OEMs make in offering products” said Youngs. .  I am intrigued by this challenge and looking forward to this next chapter of my career at PSR and serving our important base of clients.”  PSR

The European office of Power Systems Research (PSR) this season sponsored a local soccer team in Germany. The A youth of the SSG Gravenbruch is playing in the district class in the district of Offenbach am Main. The club currently occupies fourth place out of a total of 10 teams. The club is coached by Dalibor Sablic, an account manager for PSR.

Since 2020 Komatsu has been investing in Parauapebas, in the state of Pará in Northern Brazil, for a new facility that will provide maintenance for equipment and produce new equipment. The General Manager of the Mining Division for South America, Charles Medeiros says the unit will produce products for all regions in Brazil and for export.

Source: Automotive Business     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Pará is an important region for mining where companies like Vale are located and demand for local support, especially for maintenance and spare parts availability, is significant. The total investment announced is less than US$ 8 million and it is small investment for high volume production. It’s most likely that the plant will only assemble CKD units for mining operations in that region.  PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development South America, for Power Systems Research

Source: M&T     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Whether lucky or visionary, Müller is well positioned to produce positive results in coming years. While mining activity in Brazil is growing with record commodities prices and public bids for new exploration areas are expanding, competitors are mostly imported and suffer from exchange rate effects.

Fabio Ferraresi is Director-Business Development, South America, for Power Systems Research

Chris Fisher Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst

×

Chris Fisher is responsible for developing and managing all information products related to the global commercial vehicle industry. He received his Business Administration degree from the University of Nebraska. Prior to coming to work at Power Systems Research, Chris worked at Baldwin Filters as a Market Analyst, OEM Account Representative, and as the Manager of Engineering Services. Chris has been with Power Systems Research since 2006 and has written and published many articles and is a key contributor to Transport Topics, Bloomberg, Diesel Progress and various other publications.

In this episode of PSR PowerTALK, Chris Fisher, senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research, talks about the reasons for the 42.5% first quarter 2021 drop in global truck production.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Delmont:

From Power systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today we’ll discuss global truck production with Chris Fisher, PSR, senior commercial vehicle analyst.

Chris, you produce a report of global truck production each quarter. Tell us how you do that and what you’re seeing today.

00:28 Chris Fisher:

Good Morning Joe.

The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index draws data from our OE Link product; and this is a proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

00:41 Joe Delmont:

Does the TPI measure production only in North America?

00:47 Chris Fisher:

Well, it does measure truck production in North America; but it also measures production globally across five additional regions, China, Europe, South America, Japan, and Korea, as well as the emerging markets, which (is) primarily dominated by South Asia.

01:04 Joe Delmont:

Well, that’s quite inclusive that’s, that’s excellent.

Chris, what do you see in the first quarter? Or, what is the TPI in the first quarter show?

01:14 Chris Fisher:

Well, the TPI index dropped 42 1/2% for the three-month period ended March 31st of 21. It declined from 186 to 107 from the fourth quarter of last year. And I, we believe this is due to extremely high levels of production, primarily in China during Q4. And that’s a significant reason for this.

01:37 Joe Delmont:

So that big change that you’re talking about, that’s quarter over quarter change, correct?

01:41 Chris Fisher:

Correct.

01:44 Joe Delmont:

OK.

What about the past year? What was the performance there?

01:49 Chris Fisher:

Well actually the performance improved over last year from the first quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 21. The TPI index climbed 15% as it moved from 93 to 107. Basically the global production has increased significantly during the past six months. That would be the driver.

02:09 Joe Delmont:

Our listeners can find many of the TPI details by going to our website, powersys.com, and looking at the TPI section, but let’s take a few minutes now and talk about some of the major items from this quarter’s report.

02:27 Chris Fisher:

Well, across the globe, improved demand is expected in all regions except for China. However, the decline in commercial vehicle demand in China will lower the overall, overall global vehicle demand this year.

So, except for China, demand for the medium and heavy commercial vehicles has bottomed out and is expected to increase his share and into 2022 as most economies improve and the coronavirus vaccinations do increase.

02:54 Joe Delmont:

Chris, what’s going on in China?

02:58 Chris Fisher:

Well, demand for heavy trucks is expected to be down this year as a result of the Chinese government requirement to replace all China three and lower emission vehicles with vehicles meeting China five or six emission standards by the end of last year. This, along with stricter punishment of overloaded vehicles and the implementation of Euro 6 emission regulations in July, will slow demand, particularly in the last half of the year.

PSR estimates that approximately 70% of the China 3 trucks have been replaced. So, really, it’s not about the Chinese demand being significantly down for any negative economic reasons. It’s just that they did a lot of replacement last year. And then, of course, the first half will be stronger as the emissions come into, into play.

03:49 Joe Delmont:

It’ll be interesting to watch that.

Chris, do you think, uhm, the Euro 6 regs in China will generate any pre-buy?

03:58 Chris Fisher:

Well cost of the emission technology for the Euro 6 vehicles won’t be offset with any significant improvement in fuel economy, so this will probably lead to some level of pre-buy during the first half of the year.

04:12 Joe Delmont:

Well, how, how significant do you think that pre-buy will be?

04:16 Chris Fisher:

Well, the increased sales during the first half of the year is expected to be offset significantly by lower sales in the second half. So at this point we, we really can’t determine that level. But we do expect to be somewhat strong.

04:32 Joe Delmont:

You know, uh, that’s a very positive overall global truck demand; but will there be any problems with the supply chain that will cause difficulties for OEM’s and meeting this demand?

04:48 Chris Fisher:

Well, unfortunately, I mean, the global market will experience periodic supply chain disruptions, primarily due to the impact from the coronavirus for sure.

04:58 Joe Delmont:

What can you tell us about these shortages in the supply chain? What will we see there?

05:06 Chris Fisher:

Uh, interesting, it’s a good question.

The shortage of semiconductors currently is the most significant problem in the supply chain. Surveys have also indicated significant problems with the shortage of foam for reefer bodies as well as exhaust gas recirculation coolers.

Supply chain, you know, supply chain disruptions, Joe, are really not uncommon when demand quickly goes from very low level, as seen during the 1st 3/4 of last year, to very high demand, which started in the fourth quarter of last year. So really, it’s the semiconductors that seemed to be more of a shock.

05:43 Joe Delmont:

Well, it seems like semiconductors are used in many, many many applications and industries. How long do you think it’ll take to work through these supply chain problems?

05:56 Chris Fisher:

Well, the industry currently believes it’ll certainly be through the second quarter and most likely, I would suspect, into the third and maybe even, I hope not, into the fourth quarter; but hopefully the third quarter will, will shake this out.

You know, another issue I want to talk about too is, is the ports, on the issues we’re having with the ports. The ports of LA and Long Beach continued to be a bottleneck to the supply chain, and I think I was probably somewhat aware of this.

Although backlog at the ports are not uncommon, the result of the pandemic has significantly increased the problem. Not only are the ships delayed reaching the ports, but freight is being further delayed after being off loaded onto trucks or rail cars to exit the ports.

And here’s what’s up, you know, little bit shocking is the West Coast ports account for about 1/3 of US imports and this problem is not expected to ease until later this year or even into early next year.

06:54 Joe Delmont:

Wow, that’s something you can’t just push a quick solution to.

06:59 Chris Fisher:

No.

07:01 Joe Delmont:

What’s, uh, what’s your outlook for North America?

07:04 Chris Fisher:

Well, since the latter part of last year, the heavy truck orders have been extremely strong and freight rates remain very high. Both contract rates and spot rates are currently in record territory, primarily driven by consumer spending and a strong housing market along with improved manufacturing sector. At this point, we believe production of Class 8 trucks will reach 300,000 this year.

However, without the supply chain issues, we believe productions would have exceeded this level. It’s still kinda early to tell, but we’re going to see some hindrance on production levels.

07:38 Joe Delmont:

President Biden’s pushing with his stimulus package, and he’s also talking about a huge infrastructure package. How much will these packages add to the activities in North America?

07:57 Chris Fisher:

Yeah, well when you pour that kind of money into an economy, you can bet there will be some activity going on.

So with regard the commercial vehicle market, included in the massive package that Congress is working through is 174 billion to increase electric vehicle demand. The plan proposes spending 174 billion to encourage the manufacturer and purchase of electric vehicles by granting tax credits and other incentives to the companies that make electric vehicle batteries in the United States as opposed to China. The goal here is to reduce the costs ’cause we know one of the main barriers to adoption for electric vehicles is cost.

The money would also fund the construction of about a half a million electric vehicle charging stations. However, many more stations would likely be needed to service the mainstream electric vehicle market.

The plan also proposes an additional 46 billion federal procurement programs for government agencies to buy fleets of electric vehicles. And 35 billion in research and development programs, so cutting edge, new technologies.

I think everyone probably heard, I think was about a month ago, Joe, that it was announced that Biden was, you know, really pushing to have all government vehicles be electric. So, this is where, this is what they’re talking about.

09:17 Joe Delmont:

I like the fact that they’re addressing the charging issue and, and talking about developing an infrastructure that would deal with that charging situation.

Chris, let’s, let’s move on to Europe. Europe has had problems with COVID and it’s also had to deal with Brexit. What’s the outlook there?

09:43 Chris Fisher:

Well, last year, — let’s give you a little overview of, of Europe — so last year medium and heavy truck sales declined by about 26% in the EU. Truck sales declined by 27% and bus registrations dropped by around 21% compared to 2019. However, order rates have shown significant strength during the past six months and sales are expected to improve significantly this year, primarily in the heavy truck segment.

Much like North America, the biggest impediment to improve sales will likely be issues surrounding the supply chain.

So, in order to help the recovery scenario in 2021, the EU and the UK found a last minute agreement to avoid a no deal Brexit. Negotiations went on and were able to complete, or were completed, to avoid a very bad situation on January 1st. Now where the agreement is, is far from perfect, it generally produces a free market for goods, although paperwork and various administrative barriers will cause some disruption here.

10:48 Joe Delmont:

We’ve, we’ve talked about China at some length, and obviously that’s an important player. But what’s going on with the rest of Asia?

10:59 Chris Fisher:

Well, Joe, commercial vehicle demand is expected to improve much of this, much of the region this year. So after a 53% decline in the Indian medium and heavy commercial vehicle production last year, do expect an improvement of about 35% this year.

While this is good news, it will still be a few years before Indian demand reaches more historic levels. The segment will continue to face headwinds due to excess capacity in the market. They’ve got, they also have prior problems with driver shortages, increase rail freight usage, and relatively consistent freight rate. So essentially, the commercial vehicle market in India has never been hit that hard as it was last year. So it has a ways to go before it improves.

11:43 Joe Delmont:

South America has been suffering badly from several waves of COVID. What do you see going on there?

11:52 Chris Fisher:

Well, the medium and heavy commercial vehicle production declined again by about 25% last year with heavy buses and, and heavy trucks seeing the sharpest decline. While orders in production improved during the fourth quarter of last year, concerns about the supply chain could hinder production levels this year. Now, hopefully, with increased vaccinations and most stabilized regional economy, PSR does expect production to return to pre-pandemic levels later this year or maybe into next year.

I know they’ve been having some setbacks, but we’re, we’re still kind of, we’re still positive as far as the production growth level through this year.

12:31 Joe Delmont:

Very good that’s encouraging.

Finally, Chris, what do you see for Japan and Korea?

12:37 Chris Fisher:

In Japan and Korea, after a significant decline in medium and heavy commercial vehicle demand last year, uhm, these countries production expected to rebound this year and into 2022 for both the domestic and the export markets. We got to remember the commercial vehicles, I believe, around 70 to 75% of production are exported outside of Japan and Korea. So an improving global economy, along with increased coronavirus vaccinations, will help drive the improvement in demand.

However, due to ongoing supply chain disruptions, we’ve heard that song a bunch, levels are expected to be somewhat volatile this year– pretty choppy.

13:17 Joe Delmont:

Well, Chris, thanks very much for your outlook. That, uh, truck production index seems to be a valuable tool for tracking what’s going on globally and in the, in the different regions that you follow. We appreciate your comments.

And listeners if you want more information on commercial vehicles and, uh, related components, visit powersys.com and look at the different product databases that we have there. Thank you very much.

13:54:

Thank you for joining the PSR PowerTALK podcast. This podcast will be available on demand. Search for “PSR PowerTALK” in your podcast app or Google “Power Systems Research” to sign up today.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Delmont:

From Power systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.

Today, we’ll discuss the economic outlook for North America. This forecast has been developed by Yosyf Sheremeta, Director of Product Management and Customer Experience at Power Systems Research. Yosyf provides our clients with economic and production forecasts each quarter. Thanks for joining us today Yosyf.

00:35 Yosyf Sheremeta:

Thanks Joe.

00:37 Joe Delmont:

In your forecast you discuss both B2B and consumer segments. Today, let’s limit our discussion to B2B segments. In your recent first quarter economic outlook for North America, you point out that the GDP dropped 3.5% in 2020 — the worst performance for the US economy in almost 75 years. But you also write that there are many reasons for optimism in 2021. What do you see?

01:09 Yosyf Sheremeta:

Our positive outlook is based on the review of the economic indicators including GDP, unemployment, and inflation. In our previous forecast, we have already discussed recovery trends for the post Pandemic period stating a return of demand for the most mark for most markets in 2021, especially during the second part of 2021.

Based on the strong economic developments during the past six months, business re-opening trends which we expect to take place over the next six months, and combined with favorable government policies, we now expect even stronger overall growth for the year 2021.

01:50 Joe Delmont:

What kind of growth are you talking about?

01:52 Yosyf Sheremeta:

Based on our analysis over the expected growth trends, we think that US growth can reach or even surpass the growth levels from back in 1984. And that was the highest growth since 1950s.

02:07 Joe Delmont:

Are you talking about record growth levels for GDP?

02:10 Yosyf Sheremeta:

Ah, yes, it’s, it’s a long stretch to reach the level of 7.2% GDP growth in the US, that US has posted in 1984. However, it’s not that far from the major economic consensus of upper 6%, at 6.8 currently, in 2021 compared to 2020.

02:31 Joe Delmont:

When you talk about this level of growth, are you considering the possible impact of President Biden’s proposed stimulus plan?

02:40 Yosyf Sheremeta:

Yes, with the additional stimulus support provided by the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, U.S. economic growth could rival China’s growth for the first time in, in decades.

02:53 Joe Delmont:

How can that happen?

02:55 Yosyf Sheremeta:

Should the US realize the growth levels of 1984 at 7.2%, this would actually outpace Chinese forecasted growth of 6%. Should this growth pattern materialize, this would be a remarkable achievement because, you ask, economy is (a) much more mature economy.

03:16 Joe Delmont:

Yosyf, what about Biden’s infrastructure and climate programs? How will they affect the economy?

03:23 Yosyf Sheremeta:

This future proposed combined spending on infrastructure, green energy, as well as education would be in the area of between 3 and $4 trillion and would certainly serve as the catalyst to prolong growth when supported by major investments from the government.

03:40 Joe Delmont:

Power Systems Research has been following several key industry segments globally on a regional basis since 1976. Let’s take a moment and look at some of the most important B2B segments. What do you see for agriculture?

03:58 Yosyf Sheremeta:

Agricultural machinery market in the US has suffered over the past few years. The number of total ag’ equipment and machinery produced in 20…, 2014, in 2014 and 2015 years was about 250,000 units overall and by 2020 that total volume dropped to about 100 and 22,000 units. This means the market was already very low in the 2019 and 2020 and was supported mainly by the replacement rate.

However, last year the market has started the recovery and got boost from high commodity prices for key crops, corn and soybeans, which actually account for over 55% of the principal crop acreage.

04:46 Joe Delmont:

What happens if this recovery continues?

04:50 Yosyf Sheremeta:

As the economic recovery continues, we do expect the ag machinery segment to follow other industrial and heavy equipment industries. In 2021, we project the growth of agricultural equipment and machinery in North America to be at 8.9% versus 2020 levels. Additional growth is projected for 2022 at 11.9%.

05:15 Joe Delmont:

The ag sector seems to have survived the global pandemic better than most segments. Is that correct?

05:21 Yosyf Sheremeta:

Yes, the agricultural segment has weathered the pandemic better than other industrial sectors and is well positioned to continue its growth pattern in the, over the next few years. The recovery will be steady and we do expect levels of production in 2022 to reach those of 2016, 2017 years.

05:43 Joe Delmont:

8.9% is very solid growth for agriculture. Do you see, a, similar growth for construction equipment?

05:52 Yosyf Sheremeta:

We expect the construction machinery segment to follow strong economic recovery patterns as well. While the housing starts have slowed down a little bit during the first quarter of 2021, the market is still very strong and is driving the demand for construction equipment.

06:09 Joe Delmont:

Increased infrastructure spending should boost further growth in this segment.

06:15 Yosyf Sheremeta:

That’s righ. Given the high level of infrastructure spending growth projections for the segments are favorable. Furthermore, government has proposed new legislation and future comprehensive infrastructure bill would certainly support the demand in the sector by investing heavily in the green energy technology.

06:35 Joe Delmont:

Tell us more about the proposed infrastructure bill.

06:39 Yosyf Sheremeta:

Infrastructure bill will, will have a major impact on OEM equipment and machinery industries we cover. The proposed bill, at 2.3 trillion, is ,is still very far, far away from what will eventually be included in the final bill. However, right now we know the government will focus heavily on transportation infrastructure at roughly $621 billion as well as home and building infrastructure at $650 billion.

For instance, government has proposed 174 billion U.S. dollars investment in the electric vehicle market, including a national network of half a million chargers by 2030. There are, by contrast, more than 150,000 US gas stations. So 500,000 charging stations will (be) triple (the) current number of gas stations. This will definitely boost battery manufacturers as well as charging technology companies.

07:37 Joe Delmont:

How do you think the construction equipment segment will perform this year?

07:42 Yosyf Sheremeta:

Our most recent overall projection for construction equipment and machinery production is positive, at 8.2% in 2021 versus 2020, which is slightly higher than our previous forecast from last quarter. Furthermore, we expect additional growth of 8.6% in the 2022 against 2021.

08:05 Joe Delmont:

The industrial segment generally follows construction. What do you see for the industrial sector?

08:13 Yosyf Sheremeta:

This segment typically follows the general economy and the construction industry trends; with some minor equipment exceptions such as forklifts. We do expect an overall growth in production numbers at 8.2% in 2021 compared to 2020 with additional growth of 9.9% in 2022. The main drivers for the segment are small industrial equipment, material handling, and forklift applications, where the demand remains strong. Material handling is also supported by stronger levels of freight as well, and we expect this trend to continue in 2021 and 2022.

08:54 Joe Delmont:

One very important sector is the commercial vehicle segment. It seems as though rebound in the segments we have discussed previously will have major positive impact on the medium and heavy vehicles. What do you see happening in this segment?

09:11 Yosyf Sheremeta:

Since the latter part of the last year heavy commercial truck orders have been extremely strong as freight rates remain very high. Both contract rates and spot rates are currently in the record territory, primarily driven by consumer spending and strong housing markets and improving manufacturing sector. The anticipation of the stimulus spending increasing vaccination rates for the COVID-19 are also driving optimism in the economy. However, supply chain issues, particularly with regards to semiconductors, will be the biggest obstacle for the sustainable production this year.

Last year in 2020, production dropped about 32.7% versus 2019, peak year in the United States. While down significantly that final overall performance, while down, was much better than initially expected the market rebound started in a in the second part of 2020 and we do expect this trend to continue well into 2021 – 2023.

We also project a very strong growth in 2021, at 24.5% versus 2020. That will be following by, followed by 11.4% in 2022, so we will see two consecutive years of strong growth. However, the market will not return to pre decline levels for at least few years.

10:45 Joe Delmont:

Yosyf, tell us how you prepare your forecast.

10:49 Yosyf Sheremeta:

Our forecast has been developed in-house since 1980s. It incorporates proprietary algorithm which is demand driven and employs bottom-up methodology approach. We also employ a team of analysts on the ground in our worldwide network that reaches from Minnesota and Moscow to Beijing and Brazil, covering all major OEM regions and market segments.

Much of our latest data is pulled from two of the major Power Systems Research proprietary databases, OE Link and EnginLink. OE Link covers global OEM production and forecast of equipment and vehicles powered by internal combustion engine and alternative drive technologies; including battery, hybrid, fuel cells, and PTO. EnginLink, as well, covers global engine production forecasts and specification data.

11:45 Joe Delmont:

Great, you can look forward to research reports every month in PSR PowerTALK News and on this podcast several times each month.

Contact us for more information on off-road and on-highway commercial vehicles as well as many other products.

12:03

Thank you for joining the PSR PowerTALK podcast. This podcast will be available on demand. Search for “PSR PowerTALK” in your podcast app or Google “Power Systems Research” to sign up today.

JV Sollers-Ford will resume production at its engine plant in Elabuga; the plant was closed in the summer of 2019 after Ford has left the Russian Passenger Car market. The engine plant in Elabuga is again owned by JV. Total investment in new project is expected to exceed US$ 8 million (627 million rubles).

The plant will produce diesel engines for LCV Ford Transit units. Mass production is planned for 2023, and production capacity will be 25,000 engines per year.

Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The plant started making engines in 2015, producing the 1.6 liter Sigma engine; it had an annual production capacity of 200,000 engines. After Ford left the Russian market, the production of Ford Transit LCVs continued, but the van has been equipped with an imported engine. Export potential of new engine is high, and recent changes in currency exchange rates have increased the competitive edge for the local product.   PSR

Maxim Sakov is Market Consultant, Russia, for Power Systems Research