The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. MHCV demand will vary by region in 2026.  North America and Europe have seen orders increase through much of the first half of the year and vehicle demand is expected to improve somewhat over last year. China is expected to see a single digit decline in production much of the decline comes on the heels of very high levels of production in 2025.

Global Index. Overall, global production is expected to decline slightly in 2026 over last year.  Ongoing tariffs along with the conflict in the Middle East and the shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are currently putting pressure on truck demand.  However, at the time of this writing fuel prices have been declining as more vessels are able to pass through the Strait.

North America. Medium and heavy truck production in North America is expected to increase by 9.5% this year compared with low 2025 production. While class 8 truck production is expected to increase by 13.5% this year as order rates for class 8 trucks have improved strongly throughout much of the year.  Improvement in freight rates and freight demand along with tightening truck capacity and some level of truck pre-buy ahead of the 2027 GHG emission regulations is expected to drive increased truck production this year.  While truck sales have been down for much of this year, production levels are expected to be strong in the second half of the year.  Oil prices have been recently declining which will also help drive truck demand in the third and fourth quarters of 2026.

The next update of the Power Systems Research TPI will be in October 2026 and will reflect changes in the TPI during Q3 2026.  PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President-Global Data Products at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is the Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

All Regions. MHCV demand will vary by region in 2026. North America and European vehicle demand is expected to improve somewhat over last year; China is expected to see a single digit decline in production. Much of the decline comes on the heels of very high levels of production in 2025.

Global Index. Overall, global production is expected to decline slightly in 2026 over last year. Ongoing tariffs along with the conflict in the Middle East and the shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are putting pressure on truck demand this year.

North America. Medium and heavy truck production in North America is expected to increase by 9.4% this year compared with low 2025 production. While class 8 truck production is expected to increase by 11.3% this year as order rates for class 8 trucks improved strongly from December – March. Improvement in freight rates and freight demand along with tightening truck capacity and some level of truck pre-buy ahead of the 2027 GHG emission regulations is expected to drive increased truck production this year. However, a protracted conflict in the Middle East would put significant downside pressure on truck demand primarily due to higher fuel cost, supply chain disruptions and an overall concern about the state of the economy moving forward throughout the year.  PSR

By Jim Downey is Vice President-Global Data Products at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

This year’s show at the Las Vegas Convention Center drew an estimated 2,000 exhibitors and while attendance figures were not available as we prepared this report, observers said traffic was very heavy and attendance was expected to surpass the record 139,100 figure set at the last show in 2023.

Power Systems Research (PSR) sent a team of analysts to the show to talk with exhibitors and attendees about the state of the industry and to learn more about new products.

A list of the products that PSR representatives found interesting is available in the CONEXPO-CON/AGG Product Showcase later in this report.

There were several major exhibitor launches at the show, including John Deere’s introduction of 18 new products, including the 210, 230, and 260 P-Tier excavators. Komatsu: Debuted the HM460-6 (its largest articulated truck) and the D175AX-10 dozer. Liebherr: Displayed the LR 1700-1.0 Crawler Crane, the tallest and heaviest machine at the show with a 700-ton lifting capacity.

More innovative products are described in the CONEXPO Product Showcase below.

IMPRESSIONS

Several key impressions were obvious to members of the Power Systems Research team. This year’s show focused on the profitability of using the new systems of autonomous and connected technology that had been demonstrated in 2023.

One major trend we saw at the show was that equipment driven by hybrid power rather than a total electric solution seemed to be most favored. In 2023, there were a greater number of OEMs showing full electric powered prototypes; this year, while there were electric machines present, the focus seemed to be more on hybrid solutions utilizing a combination of IC engine and battery electric powertrain.

Our PSR team also came away with these observations:

• Smart Machines proactively offer problem solutions and fuel-saving steps; they don’t just identify and signal problems, they begin addressing them immediately.
• Alternative Power has become a reality in equipment power. Equipment at the show demonstrated battery power, hydrogen power, and diesel power.
• Using AI to increase safety and productivity is an important and developing management tool.
• Connected Technology where equipment fleets can be monitored from a central location to optimization equipment utilization, evaluate operator productivity and proactively monitor for any potential issues and help prevent downtime.
• Smarter Equipment. Beyond the machines themselves, many equipment manufacturers are investing heavily in software, telematics and connected platforms designed to give contractors deeper insight into equipment performance and maintenance. In other words, OEMs are increasingly positioning themselves as technology providers, not just equipment manufacturers.
• Artificial intelligence and operator-assist technology were especially prominent across the show floor. Companies including Bobcat Company, Hitachi Construction Machinery and John Deere highlighted new in-cab systems designed to support operators and improve jobsite productivity. Bobcat demonstrated its voice-activated Jobsite Companion, Hitachi showcased its Assist Program, and John Deere Wirthgen Group detailed its SmartDetect and SmartDetect Assist technologies. Designed to help operators stay focused, improve awareness and streamline tasks, these technologies reflect a growing emphasis on smarter machines that work alongside the operator.
• Operator Comfort Is a Growing Priority. As equipment becomes more advanced, manufacturers are also putting renewed focus on the operator experience inside the cab. The thinking is simple: a more comfortable operator is often a more productive operator. As jobsites push for greater efficiency, cab comfort is becoming more than a luxury—it’s a productivity tool.
• Across the show floor, companies highlighted upgrades designed to make long days on the jobsite more comfortable. From ergonomic seat designs to improved joystick placement and better visibility, cab design is becoming a central part of equipment development.
• CASE Construction Equipment, John Deere and DEVELON showcased joystick and control improvements, while Bobcat Company highlighted its new Pro line featuring heated air-ride seats.
• Autonomous Machines Target the Labor Shortage. Artificial intelligence appeared throughout the show, but autonomous and semi-autonomous equipment drew some of the biggest crowds.

Automation has become a major focus for equipment manufacturers as they look for ways to improve safety, productivity and precision on the jobsite. At the John Deere and Wirtgen Group booth, attendees gathered around the company’s 460 autonomous dump truck, one of the newest additions to its growing lineup of automated machines.

One driver behind this push is the industry’s ongoing labor shortage. A big chunk, nearly 40%, of the current workforce is approaching retirement age while fewer young workers are entering the trades.

Autonomous equipment isn’t expected to replace operators entirely, but it can help contractors complete tasks more efficiently with smaller crews. In some cases, technology may also appeal to younger workers who are more comfortable interacting with advanced digital systems and remote controls.

CONEXPO-CON/AGG 2026 PRODUCT SHOWCASE

More than 2,000 exhibitors showed off new products and services at CONEXPO-CON/AGG during the five-day show. The following is a listing of interesting products we saw, organized by equipment type, and listed in alphabetical order by manufacturer. Note that this list is not comprehensive, but we have selected some of the areas we thought would be of most interest to you.  We did not attempt to rate the products; our goal simply was to present to you some of most interesting products we saw.

AUTONOMOUS & ROBOTIC SYSTEMS

Bobcat Companion App. A central orchestration hub allowing a single site manager to supervise up to four autonomous skid steers simultaneously from a tablet. This “force multiplier” technology addresses the operator shortage by moving one worker from a seat to a supervisory screen.

Bomag Remote Roller. Enables high-precision soil compaction via a remote-control interface, removing the operator from high-vibration, high-dust environments into a localized, climate-controlled command center.

Caterpillar CS12 Self-Drive. A fully autonomous soil compactor utilizing satellite-independent path-finding to achieve 2cm pass accuracy without a cab operator. It uses LiDAR to navigate “GPS-denied” environments like deep canyons or urban alleys.

Hitachi AHS Rigid Dump. An advanced autonomous hauling system designed specifically for deep-pit mining and large-scale earthmoving. Its proprietary “Path-Finding AI” allows for fluid navigation around temporary jobsite obstacles without human intervention.

Komatsu Smart Quarry 2.0. A system-wide AI logic that dynamically reroutes autonomous haul trucks based on real-time crusher load and queue times. It optimizes the entire jobsite cycle rather than just individual machine performance.

EARTHMOVING & HEAVY EQUIPMENT

Case 580EV Production. The industry’s first mass-market electric backhoe, delivering a full 8-hour shift of performance with zero on-site emissions. This is the “Gold Standard” for contractors bidding on municipal and indoor utility contracts.

Case TV450B Heritage. A high-performance compact track loader featuring the highest torque-to-weight ratio in its class. Designed for aggressive grading and heavy lifting, it bridges the gap between compact agility and heavy-duty power.

Caterpillar Cat AI Assistant. A voice-activated “agentic” interface that allows operators to request real-time diagnostics and fuel-efficiency coaching mid-cycle. It acts as an in-cab mentor for less experienced operators.

Develon DX22-H Engine. A breakthrough multi-fuel engine designed for heavy excavators, capable of running entirely on direct hydrogen combustion. This allows firms to decarbonize heavy-duty operations without relying on battery weight.

Dynapac Seismic 2.0. An intelligent drum system that automatically detects soil density and adjusts vibration frequency in real-time. This prevents over-compaction, reduces fuel burn, and eliminates “drum bounce” damage.

Hyundai HX230 Next Gen. Features “See-Through Bucket” technology, using augmented reality and external cameras to project a transparent view of the dig site on the in-cab monitor. Dramatically increases safety and precision.

LIFTING & COMPACT EQUIPMENT

Bobcat introduced a new machine. The RX3 (Rogue), next generation, all-electric, and autonomous concept loader.

Scag 2500X . The new tracked dump buggy from Scag is designed for material handling, featuring high maneuverability and low ground compaction while hauling up to 2,500 pounds. The versatile hydra-drive dump buggy is powered by a Vanguard 23 hp commercial grade engine and offers front-pivot and swivel-pivot functionality for precise dumping on the jobsite. 

SENSORS, SOFTWARE, & IOT

Caterpillar VisionLink 2.0. A unified data ecosystem that utilizes open APIs to aggregate telematics from multiple competing OEMs into a single executive dashboard. It eliminates the need for toggling between different manufacturer portals

Flexco FXC Belt Repair. A rapid-response mechanical fastening system that allows operators to bridge conveyor belt tears and resume production in under 20 minutes. A critical tool for aggregate and quarry operations where downtime equals lost revenue.

Gefran TWIIST Sensor. A multivariable linear position sensor providing micron-level feedback for the high-precision automated hydraulic cylinders used in 3D grading. It is the “brain” behind the accuracy of the newest graders.

Hitachi Landros AI. A predictive maintenance platform that uses machine learning to forecast hydraulic component failures up to 50 operating hours before they occur, allowing for scheduled repairs rather than emergency shutdowns.

Ifm 3D Guard Cam. A specialized safety camera that uses AI to distinguish between inanimate jobsite obstacles (cones, barriers) and human workers, triggering automatic braking only when a person is detected.

Moasure 2 PRO. A motion-based measuring tool that allows users to map complex 3D jobsite volumes and perimeters simply by walking the terrain. Data is instantly exported to CAD software for rapid bidding.

Samsara Asset Tag G3. A low-profile, energy-harvesting GPS tag that provides real-time location tracking for non-powered assets like buckets, attachments, and trailers. It requires zero battery changes over its lifecycle.

TRAINING & SIMULATION

Iti VR-X Sim 5. A high-fidelity virtual reality simulator featuring haptic feedback that mimics the physical resistance of different soil types. It allows for safe, low-cost “seat time” before a trainee ever touches a live machine.

ENGINES

Hyundai. H2ICE. Hydrogen engine. In-line 6-cylinder, 11.1L displacement, Euro 6 (Zero-CO2), EPA Tier 4 Final, EU Stage V.    PSR

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets. This data comes from OE Link,, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. In 2026, all regions are expected to see some level of improvement in the MHCV segment. After low levels of production in Europe and North America in 2025, a slight increase in demand in 2026 is expected as both regions recover and should see stronger demand in 2027 and 2028. All other regions are expected to see improvement as well.

Global. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 3.7% this year over 2025. A moderate softening of the global economy along with negative impacts from increased tariffs had placed pressure on vehicle demand last year but market conditions are stabilizing heading into 2026.  PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President, Global Data Products, at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets. This data comes from OE Link,, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. In 2026, all regions are expected to see some level of improvement in the MHCV segment. After low levels of production in Europe and North America in 2025, a slight increase in demand in 2026 is expected as both regions recover and should see stronger demand in 2027 and 2028. All other regions are expected to see improvement as well.

Global. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 3.7% this year over 2025. A moderate softening of the global economy along with negative impacts from increased tariffs had placed pressure on vehicle demand last year but market conditions are stabilizing heading into 2026.  PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President, Global Data Products, at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. In 2025, Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in South America, Greater China, South Asia and Japan/Korea are expected to increase while European and North American production is expected to decline significantly this year over 2024.  Truck demand in North America and Europe is expected to show slight improvement in 2026.

Global Index. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline 3.2% this year over 2024.  A moderate softening of the global economy along with negative impacts from increased tariffs has placed pressure on vehicle demand this year.  However, global truck demand is expected to see some improvement in 2026.

North America. Medium and heavy truck production in North America is expected to decline 15.8% this year compared with 2024. The commercial truck market in North America remains in a “wait and see” mode with regard to truck sales this year.  Uncertainty about the economy and the impact of the trade tariffs moving forward is causing hesitancy among many fleets.  Many fleet owners also believe the EPA will modify or outright cancel the phase 3 GHG emission regulations, thus significantly reducing the cost of the MY 2027 vehicles and effectively eliminating any significant 2026 truck pre-buy.  At the time of this writing, PSR believes there will be no significant truck pre-buy through the rest of this year and a significantly reduced pre-buy, if any, in 2026.  Demand is expected to be strong in 2027 – 2029 as the fleets replace their aging trucks purchased in the 2022 – 2024 time-cycle.    PSR

Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst for Power Systems Research

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. In 2025, Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in South America, Greater China, South Asia and Japan/Korea are expected to increase while European and North American production is expected to decline significantly this year over 2024.  Truck demand in North America and Europe is expected to show slight improvement in 2026.

Global Index. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline 3.2% this year over 2024.  A moderate softening of the global economy along with negative impacts from increased tariffs has placed pressure on vehicle demand this year.  However, global truck demand is expected to see some improvement in 2026. PSR

Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst for Power Systems Research

Global Index. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 1.9% this year over 2024.  A moderate softening of the global economy along with negative impacts from increased tariffs has placed pressure on vehicle demand this year.

North America. The commercial truck market in North America remains in a “wait and see” mode with regard to truck sales this year.  Uncertainty about the economy and the impact of the trade tariffs moving forward is causing hesitancy among the various fleets.  Many fleet owners also believe the EPA will modify or outright cancel the phase 3 GHG emission regulations thus significantly reducing the cost of the MY 2027 vehicles and effectively eliminating any significant 2026 truck pre-buy.  At the time of this writing, PSR believes there will be no significant truck pre-buy through the rest of this year and a significantly reduced pre-buy if any, in 2026.  Medium and heavy truck production is expected to decline by 13% this year compared with 2024.  PSR

Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst for Power Systems Research

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. In 2025, Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in South America, Greater China, South Asia and Japan/Korea are expected to increase slightly while European and North American production is expected to decline this year over 2024.

Global Index. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 0.1% this year over 2024.  A moderate softening of the global economy along with negative impacts from increased tariffs will likely place pressure on vehicle demand this year. PSR

The year-over-year (Q4 2023 to Q4 2024) decrease for the PSR-TPI was, 117 to 113, or -3.4%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. In 2025, Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in South America, Greater China, South Asia and Japan/Korea are expected to increase moderately European production is expected to be flat and North American production is expected to decline over 2024.

Global Index. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 2.3% this year over 2024. Overall improvement in the global economy is the primary driver for the forecasted increase. However, the possibility for additional global tariffs from the incoming United States Executive Branch may place negative pressure on this forecast. PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President-Global Data Products
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst