Testifying before a Senate subcommittee on transportation technology recently, American Trucking Associations (ATA) President and CEO Chris Spear lobbed criticism at the California Air Resources Board (CARB), blasting its regulatory framework as economically unworkable and completely detached from operational reality.

“California Air Resources Board does not sit down with our industry,” Spear told lawmakers. “They don’t care what our industry has to say. Their attitude is: ‘You’ll figure it out.'”

The trucking industry narrowly avoided being the epicenter of what Spear characterized as an economic collapse when the Trump administration last year spiked the California Truck Emission Standards (CARB’s Omnibus rule) and California Truck NOx Emission Standards (CARB’s Advanced Clean Trucks regulations), respectively. California withdrew its waiver request in January 2025 to implement its Advanced Clean Fleets rule, which would have effectively mandated electric trucks in the state.

Spear cautioned that California’s push to rapidly electrify heavy-duty commercial fleets ignored massive deficits in power generation, grid capacity, and raw material supply chains.

Electric semis accounted for just 0.2% of total heavy-duty truck sales last year, and Spear noted that zero-emission tractors cost three-and-a-half times more than modern, clean diesel equipment. 

Fleet managers, too, face operational hurdles with current battery-electric setups, which can require six to eight hours of charging to achieve maximum rage (generally just more than 200 miles), compared to a 15-minute diesel fill up that can cover 1,200 miles.

Spear stated that if the now-repealed truck rules had remained intact, laws would have forced a mandatory 10% adoption rate by 2030, requiring roughly 3.5 million electric trucks to hit the road over a five year period. 

Spear further noted the irony that California relies on an electrical grid already plagued by seasonal rolling blackouts; that the critical minerals needed for vehicle batteries are currently sourced almost exclusively from international adversaries and volatile regions like China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo; and that domestic environmentalists routinely block mining initiatives stateside that take upwards of a decade to permit.

ATA’s top executive argued that state regulators often ignore the environmental leaps achieved by modern internal combustion technology. 

“Sixty trucks today on the road—brand new diesels—emit what one truck emitted in 1988,” Spear said. “That’s how far we’ve come… If they just focused on getting the 2010 or older trucks off the roads in California, they would’ve exponentially reduced emissions. They could’ve done that right now without turning on electricity, which they don’t have.”

Source: Clean Trucking

PSR Analysis. The ATA Chairman Spear discussed what many in the industry have known years.  The initiative to ultimately transition from the internal combustion engine to zero-emission medium and heavy trucks would not be possible until a number of the barriers have been overcome.  Barriers such as charging and grid infrastructure, total cost of ownership and misaligned duty cycles prohibit mass adoption of battery electric trucks.  Basically, an implementation timeline without a plan to achieve the milestones is impossible.   PSR

Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

All Regions. MHCV demand will vary by region in 2026. North America and European vehicle demand is expected to improve somewhat over last year; China is expected to see a single digit decline in production. Much of the decline comes on the heels of very high levels of production in 2025.

Global Index. Overall, global production is expected to decline slightly in 2026 over last year. Ongoing tariffs along with the conflict in the Middle East and the shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are putting pressure on truck demand this year.

North America. Medium and heavy truck production in North America is expected to increase by 9.4% this year compared with low 2025 production. While class 8 truck production is expected to increase by 11.3% this year as order rates for class 8 trucks improved strongly from December – March. Improvement in freight rates and freight demand along with tightening truck capacity and some level of truck pre-buy ahead of the 2027 GHG emission regulations is expected to drive increased truck production this year. However, a protracted conflict in the Middle East would put significant downside pressure on truck demand primarily due to higher fuel cost, supply chain disruptions and an overall concern about the state of the economy moving forward throughout the year.  PSR

By Jim Downey is Vice President-Global Data Products at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

Mack Trucks said at the ACT Expo in Las Vegas its MP13 powertrain has been re-engineered to meet stringent EPA 2027 emissions standards while also getting a performance boost for both highway and vocational applications. 

The new MP13 will deliver up to 540 horsepower and 1,950 lb.-ft. of torque, but beyond raw power, the engine increases braking horsepower by more than 20%, reaching 630 braking hp for improved stopping capability.

To meet the 2027 federal standards, Mack Senior Vice President Govi Kannan said engineers focused on more complete combustion cycles to reduce CO2, soot, and particulate matter. “This will be our strongest 13-liter that we have built,” Kannan said. The cost of compliance, Kannan said, is expected to be roughly $10,000 over the prior generation engine. 

The engine is paired with an updated mDRIVE automated manual transmission, featuring enhanced engine-to-transmission communication for faster shifting. Advanced predictive software and an optimized torque curve—peaking as low as 900 RPM—further support fuel economy through down speeding.

The efficiency gains vary by model. While the MP13 offers a 3% fuel improvement in the Mack Pioneer, Anthem, and Granite models, it reaches a 6% efficiency increase in the all-new Mack Keystone compared to its predecessor, the Pinnacle. Mack officials noted the Keystone’s gains were achieved without sacrificing the off-road versatility required for vocational work.

The EPA 2027-compliant MP13 will be available for order in August 2026 and be available in Mack’s entire long-haul and vocational lineup.

Source: CCJ

PSR Analysis. Depending on the application, the improvement in fuel economy will help off-set the additional up-front cost of the 2027 compliant engines.  While the 13 liter engines for both Mack and Volvo will be able to meet the 2027 emission regulations for their 13 liter engine program, they will be replacing the current MP7 11 liter engine with the new Cummins X10 engine program.   PSR

Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

Global medium and heavy truck production is expected to increase in most important regions this year, but China’s MH truck segment probably will see a major structural change. Overall production in South America is expected to be flat, although Argentina is likely to post a gain of almost 10%.

North America. Medium and heavy truck production in North America is expected to increase by 9.4% this year compared with low 2025 production. While class 8 truck production is expected to increase by 11.3% this year as order rates for class 8 trucks improved strongly from December – March. 

Improvement in freight rates and freight demand along with tightening truck capacity and some level of truck pre-buy ahead of the 2027 GHG emission regulations is expected to drive increased truck production this year.  However, a protracted conflict in the Middle East would put significant downside pressure on truck demand primarily due to higher fuel cost, supply chain disruptions and an overall concern about the state of the economy moving forward throughout the year.

Europe. Medium and heavy truck production in Europe is expected to increase by 6% this year compared to 2025.  After very low truck demand during the past few years, it does appear that demand may have bottomed out and has started to improve this year.  Truck demand in Western Europe is expected to improve this year as the fleets will need to replace their older trucks purchased in 2022 and 2023. 

With regard to the conflict in the Middle East, if this conflict is relatively short lived (a month or two), it will probably have minimal impact on the European and global economy.  However, if this conflict were to drag on and oil tankers could not pass through the Strait of Hormuz, this would impact Europe with higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions.  Just the thought of an economic slowdown would likely give the fleets pause on capital investment.

South Asia. After a strong level of vehicle replacement during the past few years, commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 3.1% this year compared with 2025.  In India, truck and freight capacity has mostly rebalanced and MHCV production is expected to increase by 3% this year compared with 2025.  Demand is expected to grow in the mid-term owing to a strong macroeconomic environment, healthy fleet utilization levels, Government capex on infrastructure projects, and stable freight demand. 

South America. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to be flat this year compared with 2025.  Production in Argentina is expected to increase by 9.6% as the economy is improving and inflation is down significantly from a year ago.  MHCV production in Brazil is expected to be flat this year while vehicle production in Columbia is forecasted to increase by 5% this year.

Japan/Korea. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in Japan and South Korea is expected to increase by 2.1% in 2026 over last year.  Commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 2.1% in Japan and increase by 2.6% in South Korea this year. 

In Japan, infrastructure spending and the continued need for the fleets to replace older trucks will be the primary reasons for increased truck demand this year.  For both Japan and South Korea, the trade tariff uncertainty will place pressure on the OEMs in their various export markets throughout the year.

Greater China. In 2026, China’s heavy-duty truck industry total sales are expected to remain in a high range of 1.1 million to 1.16 million units, showing a trend of “slight total growth but drastic structural change.” Domestic sales, supported by the concentrated replacement of China V emission standard models and the continuation of the “trade-in” policy, are projected to be approximately 700,000 to 790,000 units, while the export market will become a key growth pole, contributing an estimated 300,000 to 340,000 units.   PSR

Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

Americans are warily eyeing prices at the pump as oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz grind to a halt amid the threat of Iranian attacks on vessels. The IEA took the unprecedented step of saying it would release 400 million barrels of oil from reserve on Wednesday. But oil is far from the only product for which the world economy is heavily dependent on the shallow, narrow waterway which connects Persian Gulf ports with the rest of the world. From the metals market to agriculture and autos, a de facto closure of the strait would ripple through business sectors and both the U.S. and world economy.

Aluminum is a good example. It is one of the biggest non-petroleum commerce casualties of the U.S.-Iran war. In 2025, the Middle East accounted for roughly 21% of unwrought aluminum imports and 13% of wrought aluminum imports — and those percentages have been rising. Unwrought aluminum is the raw, unprocessed metal in forms like ingots and billets, while wrought aluminum has been mechanically shaped into sheets, rods, or other finished forms used directly in manufacturing.  

“The Iran situation is having an impact, and as the conflict continues, industry concerns may grow,” said Matt Meenan, spokesman for the Aluminum Association, a trade organization representing the U.S. aluminum industry. “This is a highly dynamic situation,” Meenan said. 

The longer the Middle East conflict goes on, the more damage that will be done to supplies of products that Americans expect to be on the shelves. 

“The Gulf is a major supplier of aluminum, and disruptions could tighten supply chains for advanced manufacturing,” said Tony Pelli, practice director of supply chain security and resilience at BSI Consulting, a global risk management firm. “Aluminum prices are already rising, and further disruption could increase input costs for automotive, aerospace, and construction manufacturing in the U.S. and Europe.” 

SOURCE:  CNBC – 3-11-26

PSR Analysis. It is always something.  Just as the North American trucking industry has started a transition into a positive freight environment, an on-going conflict in the Middle East could derail this transition.  During the last three months, the OEMs have seen stronger order books primarily driven by tighter truck capacity, improved freight rates and improving freight demand along with an overall sense of optimism. 

If this conflict ends relatively quickly and the Strait of Hormuz can fully open-up, the commercial truck market will continue to improve this year and beyond.  If this conflict drags on, it will almost certainly give the fleets pause on purchasing new trucks out of fear of a major freight slowdown or even an economic recession.    PSR

Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets. This data comes from OE Link,, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. In 2026, all regions are expected to see some level of improvement in the MHCV segment. After low levels of production in Europe and North America in 2025, a slight increase in demand in 2026 is expected as both regions recover and should see stronger demand in 2027 and 2028. All other regions are expected to see improvement as well.

Global. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 3.7% this year over 2025. A moderate softening of the global economy along with negative impacts from increased tariffs had placed pressure on vehicle demand last year but market conditions are stabilizing heading into 2026.  PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President, Global Data Products, at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets. This data comes from OE Link,, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. In 2026, all regions are expected to see some level of improvement in the MHCV segment. After low levels of production in Europe and North America in 2025, a slight increase in demand in 2026 is expected as both regions recover and should see stronger demand in 2027 and 2028. All other regions are expected to see improvement as well.

Global. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 3.7% this year over 2025. A moderate softening of the global economy along with negative impacts from increased tariffs had placed pressure on vehicle demand last year but market conditions are stabilizing heading into 2026.  PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President, Global Data Products, at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

The update was initially reported by The Los Angeles Times.

Tesla reportedly is positioned to receive roughly $165 million in California clean-truck incentives for its Semi.

As per the Times, the Tesla Semi’s funding will come from California’s Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Incentive Project (HVIP), which was designed to accelerate the adoption of cleaner medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. Since its launch in 2009, the HVIP has distributed more than $1.6 billion to support zero-emission trucks and buses across the state.

In recent funding rounds, nearly 1,000 HVIP vouchers were provisionally reserved for the Tesla Semi, giving Tesla a far larger share of available funding than any other automaker. An analysis by the Times found that even after revisions to public data, Tesla still accounts for about $165 million in incentives. The next-largest recipient, Canadian bus manufacturer New Flyer, received roughly $68 million.

This is quite unsurprising, however, considering that the Tesla Semi does not have a lot of competition in the zero-emissions trucking segment.

To qualify for HVIP funding, vehicles must be approved by the California Air Resources Board and listed in the program catalog, as noted in an electrive report. When the Tesla Semi voucher applications were submitted, public certification records only showed eligibility for the 2024 model year, with later model years not yet listed.

State officials have stated that certification details often involve confidential business information and that funding will only be paid once vehicles are fully approved and delivered. Still, the first-come, first-served nature of HVIP means large voucher reservations can effectively crowd out competing electric trucks. Incentive amounts for the Semi reportedly ranged from about $84,000 to as much as $351,000 per vehicle after data adjustments.

Unveiled in 2017, the Tesla Semi has seen limited deliveries so far, though CEO Elon Musk has recently reiterated that the Class 8 all-electric truck will enter mass production this year.

Article Source: TESLARATI

The updated article was initially reported by The Los Angeles Times.

PSR Analysis. Will the truck subsidies from CARB along with the other state and federal subsidies be enough to support a scale up of the Tesla semi-truck production during the next few years? 

Ultimately, Tesla along with the other OEMs will need to reduce the up-front cost significantly and overcome various other barriers before mass adoption can occur.  Aside from the high up-front truck cost, charging infrastructure, duty cycles and reduced battery weight to increase payload will need to be overcome to achieve mass production.  At some point, the subsidies will likely end.  Class 8 battery electric truck demand will need to increase significantly in order to reduce the truck cost otherwise demand will likely end when the subsidies end.  PSR

Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

Medium and heavy truck production in North America is expected to increase by 4.9% this year compared with 2025. While class 8 truck production is expected to increase by 6.1% this year, the industry continues to be negatively impacted by the weight of the tariffs, low freight demand, excess truck capacity and relatively high finance rates which is expected to continue through at least the first half of the year. 

With regard to the implementation of the phase 3 GHG emission regulations, it will be later in the spring before the EPA finalizes any revisions to the standards.  Many in the industry believe the EPA will retain the 0.035 g/hp-hr standard along with the 2027 implementation date but cancel the extended warranty requirements which would have added significant up-front cost to the trucks. 

In the EPA revision it is also likely the 0.035 g/hp-hr standard will remain in place for the foreseeable future.  PSR expected class 8 truck demand to improve later this year and be stronger in 2027 – 2029 as the fleets replace their aging trucks purchased in the 2022 – 2024 time-cycle.

Across the Atlantic,medium and heavy truck production in Europe is expected to increase by 5% this year compared to 2025.  After very low truck demand during the past few years, it appears that demand may have bottomed out and will likely improve this year.  Truck demand in Western Europe is expected to improve this year and into 2027 and 2028 as the fleets will need to replace their older trucks purchased in 2022 and 2023. 

A stronger European economy along with implementation of the Euro 7 emission regulations in May 2029 should drive stronger truck demand during the next few years.   PSR

Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is moving forward with the 2027 timeline for its heavy-duty NOx rule—currently set to take effect with the 2027 model year—but says changes are in store.

The American Trucking Associations (ATA), National Tank Truck Carriers, Truckload Carriers Association, and 49 state trucking associations in August penned a letter to EPA, asking the regulator to push implementation to 2031, citing “substantial compliance costs and operational burdens at a time when the trucking industry is already contending with historically difficult market conditions.”

Administrator Lee Zeldin in March announced that the EPA was reevaluating the Biden-era 2022 Heavy-Duty Engine and Vehicle rule that regulates oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and other emissions beginning with Model Year 2027.

EPA told CCJ the agency continues to reevaluate the rule and plans to propose a rule in the spring of 2026 that will take effect the following model year.

“If finalized,” EPA said, “the action will make major changes to the program requirements while maintaining the Model Year 2027 start of the standards, which can significantly reduce the cost of new heavy-duty vehicles, while still protecting human health and the environment, and avoiding regulatory distortions of the heavy-duty vehicle market.”

A spokesperson for Daimler Truck North America told CCJ Monday that the company appreciates EPA’s efforts to reduce costs while maintaining a focus on air quality and legislative consistency, adding “[This] announcement provides the regulatory certainty needed for effective production planning and customer support.”

The new limits currently tighten tailpipe NOx emissions to a level 80%-plus below the current standard and reduce the particulate matter limit by 50%. The agency also will require that OEMs extend warranties to 450,000 miles from 100,000 and useful life limits to 650,000 miles from 435,000 miles.

EPA did not disclose plans for its 2026 revised proposal, but the extended warranty has been cited by OEMs as a major driver of increased costs for MY2027 trucks. Given that EPA expects its changes to the current NOx regulations to drive down costs, warranty provisions are likely to be affected.

Source: CCJ

PSR Analysis: It appears the EPA will proceed with the implementation of the Phase 3 GHG emission regulations for medium and heavy vehicles for MY2027.  However, they are likely to make significant adjustments to the standards.  It is also likely they will eliminate the extended warranty for the MY2027 vehicles thus significantly reducing the up-front purchase price. 

While we will not know the final outcome until this spring, it is possible the EPA will maintain the 2027 nitrous oxide emission rule at the 0.035 g/hp-hr standard moving forward from 2028-2032.  If the EPA flattens the nitrous oxide rule, it would eliminate the need to transition from ICE engines toward zero-emission vehicles during this period.  PSR

Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research