Personal Mobility Segment Lacks Sparkle, Stocks, Demand Drop

Aditya Kondejkar

Passenger vehicles sales dropped 41% to around 160k units in September as the shortage of semi-conductors disrupted production at most of the OEMs. OEMs are facing supply shortages rather than demand problems. We are seeing robust customer demand as increasing preferences towards personal mobility increase.

2-wheel sales declined 17% to 1.5 million units in September. The Motorcycle segment is heavily impacted as sales is dropped 23% in September. Owing to high vehicle acquisition costs and high fuel prices, inquiries regarding new vehicles have dropped significantly compared with last years’ level.

“Indian automobile industry continues to face new challenges, said Kenichi Ayukawa, President, SIAM. “While on one hand, we are seeing a revival in vehicle demand, on the other hand, shortage of semi-conductor chips is causing a major concern for the industry. Many members have curtailed their production plans.”

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PSR Analysis: So, we believe the on road segments have witnessed a V-shaped recovery since the second wave of COVID-19 and won’t see a regular festive season spike for this year.   PSR

Aditya Kondejkar is Research Analyst – South Asia Operations, for Power Systems Research

Marcopolo Resumes Production After COVID-19 Shutdown

Marcopolo started producing again April 13 after a break forced by COVID-19 control measures. The plants of Caxias do Sul and Duque de Caxias are producing again with lowered output. The number of workers is reduced and the space between people is expanded, among other measures for safety purposes. The São Mateus plant has not reopened.

Source: AutoData     Read The Article

PSR Analysis:

The current scenario points to a heavy impact on the Bus market due to reduced customer traffic that puts reduces fleet owner revenue. On the other hand, this segment is often boosted by government programs, like “Caminhos da Escola” in Brazil.

The actions for recovery after the crisis may lower the impact substantially, especially in a scenario where  government spending is no longer limited to the approved budget, there is strong pent up demand for school buses and actions to stimulate industry and jobs are badly needed. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director-Business Development SA

Trucking News: Asking The Expert

Do you expect a sharp slowdown for truck purchases in October due to the possible resurgence of the Coronavirus this fall?

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

PSR Analysis: At this point, no.  The “shock and awe” of the pandemic appears to be well behind us.  During the past few months, commercial truck demand has stabilized albeit at a low level but continues to improve. 

Recent surveys have indicated that trucking conditions are improving.  The biggest threat to the health of the industry would be a further lockdown of the economy which would cause trucking conditions to slow but would not likely upend the market.  However, we do believe it will take a further 18-36 months for the economy to return to a pre-virus level.

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LNG May Be Fuel for Long-Haul Trucking

INDIA REPORT
Aditya Kondejkar

With the increasing penetration of the Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) network across India, many cities may transition from conventional diesel-powered vehicles to CNG for the last mile.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) could be a favorable option for heavy and long hauls due to its higher energy density and hence a lower payload penalty and potential range, a lower carbon footprint/noise levels and its cryogenic temperatures which makes it a theft-proof fuel option.

At the same time, the use of HPDI (High-Pressure Direct Injection), a system that enables heavy–duty trucks to operate on natural gas with diesel- like performance would also aid in the switch to LNG.

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Trucking News: Asking The Expert

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

What is the current state of electric vehicle technology globally as well as the U.S.?

From a medium and heavy truck perspective, electric trucks are still in the early stages of testing and it will still be a few years before we know if the current technology will be effective.  Transit or city buses are much further along in the process since these are largely not for profit vehicles and have more dedicated routes that allow for more consistent recharge. 

China is probably the furthest along with electric bus adoption with almost half of all medium and heavy buses produced being electric.  While electrified bus adoption in North America and Europe is not nearly as strong as China, demand is increasing. 

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Trucking News: Ask the Expert

The Current Status of Electric Commercial Vehicles

During the past decade, PSR has followed the progress of alternative fuels and technologies such as gas and diesel hybrid, natural gas, and electric along with other renewable fuels.  To date, alternative fuels have been relegated to more niche segments and have not penetrated the larger end of the market.

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Segments such as transit and school buses along with short distance segments like refuse have been the primary adopters of natural gas since they tend to be close to their terminals for refueling and recharging.  The bus market along with pickup and delivery trucks are the target segments for electric vehicles in the near term.

Late last year, Amazon placed an order for 100,000 light commercial “Prime” vans from Rivian that will likely be the beta test for the viability of light electric commercial vehicles.  These vehicles are expected to begin deliveries next year.

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Power Systems Research Sees Strong Commercial Vehicle Demand Continuing

OEM Off-Highway recently interviewed Power Systems’ Chris Fisher for their OEM Industry Update podcast. Here we present it with their permission

This week on OEM Industry Update we speak with Chris Fisher, Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst, Power Systems Research, about the current state of the North American commercial vehicle market. He says truck demand continues to be strong and is expected to remain so through 2022 and possibly even into 2023. Inventory stocking and solid growth in single family housing are among the factors positively impacting the market. 

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:13 Sarah Jensen:

Welcome to OEM Industry Update; a weekly podcast examining the latest news and technology trends impacting product development teams and the heavy-duty on and off highway equipment Industries. I’m Sarah Jensen, editor of OEM Off Highway and in this week’s episode I’ll be speaking with Chris Fisher, Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research, about the current state of the North American commercial vehicle market. Let’s take a listen now:

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PowerTracker™ Report Q2 2020: Coronavirus Generates its Own Demand

SUMMARY: Gen-set sales in Q2 2020 rose 4.5% from Q1 2020, due to the combination of a halting recovery from the coronavirus shutdowns and new demand generated by COVID-19. While “normal” demand for generators is still weak, evidenced by continuing declines in the power ranges above 50kW, it is being offset by new demand in the power ranges below 50kW. These changes were directionally consistent across fuel types.

Looking by application, Portables and Standbys were slightly positive, while Temporary, Peak Shaving, Baseload, and Cogeneration were all negative by double digits compared to Q1 2020. This translated into a 5% increase in sales to Private consumers, and about 6% decreases in Institutional and Industrial sales.

On a Year-on-Year basis, overall unit sales for Q2 2020 were up 1% compared to sales levels in Q2 2019, with Q1 2020 having almost completely wiped out the gains earned in Q3 2020 of last year.

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