Russia Economic Outlook – April 2021

Maxim Sakov, Market Consultant-Russia for Power Systems Research, discusses his Q1 2021 economic outlook for Russia in this episode of PSR PowerTALK.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Emiliano Marzoli:

From Power Systems Research, hello everyone. I’m Emiliano Marzoli, editor of PSR PowerTALK, and today I will discuss the economic outlook for Russia with Maxim Sakov, our marketing consultant in Moscow. Maxim provides our clients with economic and production forecasts for Russia each quarter. And thank you for joining us today, Maxim.

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U.S. Economic Downturn this Year or Next?

Jim Downey

SUMMARY. As we are halfway through 2023, there is more uncertainty with the economy than earlier in the year. The general consensus is there will be a recession coming soon in the United States, and now it is just a matter of whether this will happen later in 2023 or the first of part of 2024.

The latter may be more assumed recently. The stock market has not fallen, and the US economy has not entered a recession this year, 2023. Some of the factors that have prevented this are market investors being enthusiastic over AI (Artificial Intelligence) potential, the Federal Reserve’s pause in interest rate increases, and the slowdown of inflation. So seemingly the pause button has been hit on recession scenarios.

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Russia Economic Outlook – October 2021

Maxim Sakov, Market Consultant-Russia for Power Systems Research, discusses his Q3 2021 economic outlook for Russia in this episode of PSR PowerTALK.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Emiliano Marzoli

Hello everyone. From Power Systems Research, I’m your host, Emiliano Marzoli, editor of PSR PowerTALK. And today we’ll discuss the economic outlook for Russia with Maxim Sakov, our market consultant in Moscow.

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Rolls Royce Power Systems Posts Record Year in 2022

EUROPEAN REPORT 
Natasa Mulahalilovic
Natasa Mulahalilovic

Rolls Royce Holdings’ 2022 Annual Report shows significant performance improvement compared to 2021. Its four business units posted revenue of £12.691 m (£10.947 m in 2021), gross profit of £2.477 m (£1.996 m in 2021) and operating profit of £652 m (£441 m in 2021). Civil aerospace business unit made 49% of the revenue, Defense 29%, and Power Systems 26%.

The Power Systems business unit is the home for the mtu brand developing and manufacturing power systems and solutions for commercial marine, industrial, defense and yachts as well as power generation. Headquartered in Germany, it closed the year with a record revenue of £3.347 m, a gain of 23 % comparing to the prior year. Orders for 2022 were £4.3 billion, 29% higher than the orders placed in 2021.  

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HanseYachts Group Reports ‘Exceptional Year’

Natasa Mulahalilovic
Natasa Mulahalilovic

German boat manufacturer HanseYachts AG has announced preliminary financial results for 2020-2021 that it has described as “exceptional for the company in all respects.”

The group, established in 1990, manufactures sailing, motor yachts and luxury sailing, and motor catamarans under the brands Hanse, Dehler, Moody, Privilege, Fjord and Sealine. Boats are produced in Germany and France, and are equipped with Volvo, Yanmar and Mercury engines.

Despite the production problems caused by delays in parts supply, the group achieved record results in 2020/2021, with the order book counting more than 1,000 boats. Previously, the group’s best year was 2007/2008 when 940 boats were ordered. The revenue this year is expected to be more than € 230 million. 

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2020, A Year to Forget for MHV; 2021 Is Looking Better

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

SUMMARY: In this article we provide a global overview on a regional basis of the medium and heavy commercial vehicle market (GVWR > 6 MT’s) along with current trends and OEM happenings in North America.

NORTH AMERICA. MHCV production in North America is expected to decline by 35% in 2020 compared to 2019.  However, orders for class 8 trucks improved significantly in Q4 2020 as large fleets placed their orders for a 2021 build.  This appears to signal an improvement in demand for 2021 as the market aligns itself with the expected freight level moving forward.  The consumer segment was strong during the last half of the year and the industrial segment is now expected to improve, as well. 

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Five Year Plan Encourages Development of LNG Trucks and Ships

CHINA REPORT

Jack Hao
Jack Hao

“By 2025, the national gas storage capacity of intensive layout will reach 55 billion ~ 60 billion cubic meters, accounting for about 13% of natural gas consumption. Build a green and low-carbon transportation system, optimize and adjust the transportation structure, vigorously develop multi-modal transport, promote the medium and long-distance transportation of bulk goods “from rail to water”, encourage the use of clean fuels such as LNG in the field of heavy-duty trucks and ships, and strengthen the guarantee of clean energy supply in the transportation industry. It is emphasized that the LNG storage and transportation system in Bohai Rim region, Yangtze River Delta region and Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Bay area should be continuously improved, and the core is the construction of LNG terminal.”

Source:  NDRC       Read The Article

PSR Analysis. China’s LNG import volume in 2022 is expected to surpass Japan and become the world’s largest LNG importer. At the same time, China has built 22 LNG terminals. There are more than 200 LNG manufacturers in China, with an annual capacity of about 30 million tons.

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20-Year Changes in Top Construction OEM Hierarchy

A new animated chart shows the dramatic changes in the evolving hierarchy of the biggest construction equipment manufacturers over 20 years. The chart draws on data from International Construction’s Yellow Table, which tracks the top 50 construction OEMs across the world. The data stretches back to 2003, and up until the latest version in 2022.

Source: International Construction: Read The Article

PSR Analysis: This animated chart is especially interesting in that it allows you to track the growth of up to half a dozen big Chinese OEMs who have grown among the top companies.    PSR

Guy Youngs is Forecast & Adoption Lead at Power Systems Research

Strong Post-pandemic Growth Expected into 2022-23 for North America

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  After the GDP declined 3.5% last year, the worst performance in almost 75 years, the US economy is set for a strong comeback.  There are many reasons to be optimistic about the economy for the next few years, including strong readings of macro-economic factors combined with the economic cycle reset backed by government initiatives and policies.

Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation. 

During H1 2021, we witnessed a strong level of activities and a rebound for many industries.  As local governments eased lockdown restrictions, service-oriented industries gained traction and that translated to an overall increase of economic activities across many industries. 

We expect this level of rebound to continue and we now expect even stronger overall growth for 2021.  The US economy is on track to reach or even surpass the growth level of 1984 – the highest one since 1950s.  In the near term, consumer spending will help drive demand and support the strong growth trend.

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Fastest NA Economic Growth Expected Since 1980s

Read the complete report in April PowerTALK™ News.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

(April 1, 2021)–After the GDP declined 3.5% last year, the worst performance in almost 75 years, the US economy is set for a strong comeback.  In fact, we could see GDP growth exceeding 6% this year.

There are many reasons to be optimistic about 2021.  Strong readings of macro-economic factors combined with the economic cycle reset backed by the government initiatives and policies support our estimates for the current year and beyond. 

Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of the key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation.   In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, stating a return of demand for most markets in 2021, especially during H2 2021.  

Based on our analysis of the expected growth trend and the economic reviews in major publications, we think US growth can surpass the growth level from 1984 – the highest one since 1950s. 

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