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ST. PAUL, MN–A team of international analysts from Power Systems Research (PSR) analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on the global production of Off-Highway Equipment and MH-Duty Vehicles in several regions today.
The team examined the impact of the coronavirus in North America, Europe, Asia, India, and South America for the remainder of 2020 and into Q1 2021. Download your copy of the presentation here.
Q. What is the current state of electric vehicle technology globally as well as the U.S.? A. From a medium and heavy truck perspective, electric trucks are still in the early stages of testing, and it will still be a few years before we know if the current technology will be effective. Transit or city buses are much further along in the process since these are largely not for profit vehicles and have more dedicated routes that allow for more consistent recharge.
China is probably the furthest along with electric bus adoption with almost half of all medium and heavy buses produced being electric. While electrified bus adoption in North America and Europe is not nearly as strong as China, demand is increasing. In North America, natural gas buses (CNG and Propane) are currently the alternative fuel of choice. However, government mandates will likely force bus electrification over the next decade or so.
We have been hearing a lot of talk and getting questions on the current status and the future of autonomous vehicles within the medium and heavy segment.
Early adopters of autonomous technology will likely be in the class 8 long haul segment followed by the bus and medium duty truck segment. Currently, the high cost of the technology can be better absorbed in class 8 long-haul truck applications.
The transition from level 0 to level 1 and 2 is happening relatively quickly due in part to the availability of the technology. Level 3 adoption is still a few years away and it is currently not legal to use on the highway. It will likely be 2027 or 2028 before we see small levels of level 3 commercial vehicles on the road.
As of Feb. 6, 2024, Shell permanently closed its seven light duty hydrogen fuel stations in California citing “hydrogen supply complications and other external market factors” for this decision. According to the below MOTORTREND article, this leaves 17 stations operational (although several are offline at the time of this writing) in the Bay Area, and just one in the Sacramento area.
Shell had already told industry outlet Hydrogen Insight that it would stop building any of the 48 new California stations it had planned—a significant number for the state—and that the company “made the decision to permanently close its light duty station network in California in early 2024.”
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) now requires shippers that transport a large volume of freight to set a target of using 5% electric light-duty trucks by FY2030, which includes EVs and fuel cell vehicles (CVs), but not hybrids.
They will also be required to submit periodic reports on their progress toward this target. If the efforts are significantly inadequate, the committee can make recommendations to shippers and publicly announce the names of the companies involved.
Of the 800 major manufacturers, retailers, and other companies with large annual transportation volumes, those that are also involved in their own transportation or those that request exclusive transportation from a specific company are eligible for the program.
PSR Analysis: The fact that hybrids are not included in this goal effectively means that the next-generation development of light-duty trucks has been narrowed down to BEVs or FCVs. However, FCVs still lack hydrogen stations, and the construction cost of hydrogen stations is higher than that of EV charging stations, so the shift to EVs will be promoted first. Light-duty trucks are numerous and can be said to be the artery of domestic logistics. With about seven years to go until 2030, the number of vehicles that will be replaced by EVs will increase every year. PSR
Akihiro Komuro is Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia, for Power Systems Research
The Hyundai Motor Group has announced its “Hydrogen Vision 2040,” which states that 2040 will be the first year of the popularization of hydrogen energy. The company plans to launch new models of all commercial vehicles, including heavy-duty trucks and buses, with hydrogen-electric and electric vehicles. The goal is to reduce the price of hydrogen-electric vehicles to the level of general electric vehicles by 2030 by developing a next-generation hydrogen fuel cell system that is inexpensive and has good performance.
The Hyundai Motor Group will not launch any new commercial vehicles powered by internal combustion engines in the future. It plans to mass-produce hydrogen-electric trucks in the country in the first half of next year and plans to apply hydrogen fuel cells to all of its commercial vehicle lineup by 2028.
Product Descriptions by Segment and Application Power Systems Research tracks some 250 products in 13 major industrial segments. This Guide defines each product that PSR lists in its proprietary databases. Segment: Agriculture Application: 2-Wheel Tractors 2-Wheel Tractors Application: Ag Tractors 2-Wheel Drive Tractors 4WD Articulated Ag Tractors MFWD Tractors (Mechanical Front Wheel Drive) Tracked Ag
The Heavy Duty Trailers market has started the year 2024 with a record-breaking January, boasting 7,075 registrations of trailers and semi-trailers. This achievement reflects an impressive 8% surge compared to January 2023.
The exceptional performance of road implements at the outset of the year is predominantly attributed to the agribusiness sector.
PSR Analysis. Notably, the initial months of the year coincide with critical harvest periods for key agribusiness commodities such as soybeans, corn, and sugarcane. Consequently, categories experiencing the most substantial growth in year-on-year comparisons include sugarcane farmers, with an increase of nearly 470%, and bulk carriers, which witnessed a notable uptick of 53%. Optimism pervades the road equipment segment for all of 2024, propelled by favorable forecasts for the industry’s trajectory.PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development South Americafor Power Systems Research
2022 has been an interesting year on many commercial vehicle fronts including the medium and light electric commercial truck and van segment. While large established OEMs such as Ford, who is expected to produce approximately 6,500 E-Transits at the Kansas City plant in 2022, there has been some shakeup within the electric commercial vehicle start-ups.
During the past six months, Mullen Automotive, based in Brea, CA, has acquired the assets of the now bankrupt Electric Last Mile (ELMS) company and has acquired 60% of Bollinger Motors, which has yet to start vehicle production.
In September 2022, Mullen Automotive invested $148 million into Bollinger Motors, giving Mullen a 60% share of the company. Bollinger plans on introducing their electric class 3 – 6 lineup of cargo vehicles starting in 2023 and it is likely that Bollinger will also manufacture the Mullen electric light commercial vans also starting production in 2023.
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